Property Secrets Deal Price Growth Update - how have you done?
16th March 2007

(Please note: The individual unit prices Property Secrets has used for comparison are correct at the time of posting. But they are subject to increase or decrease due to market conditions.)

The last time we published the numbers on price growth for the deals we have offered to our members it was good news almost right across the board. That was back in October 2006. Now we can report back with a more comprehensive breakdown of the performance of the developments you have invested in through us.

And this time, it is largely great news.

A few words of warning beforehand though. Just like last time, there are a few things you need to be aware of when looking at the Returns on Investment, average market prices and the like.

Many of you will have read this before, but it's important that you bear this in mind!

Measuring performance

Price Growth DataWith new builds (off-plan deals), it is notoriously difficult to find an appropriate measure of real growth before they are completed - because the real proof of growth is the prices that units fetch when they are completed and start to come onto the secondary market.

Once completed units are being sold on the open market, then we can see clearly what profits are achievable - a direct measure of market value.

But there is another, slightly imperfect (but still very effective), measure that we can make before construction is complete.

During the construction phase of a development, we use the developer's prices.
This is by no means a certain reflection of value, and it's important to bear in mind what phase the construction of the development is in and what phase the sale of units is in.

Towards the latter stages of construction the developer will be keen to sell, as the construction phase nears its end. So this will often hold down prices.

Even more importantly, once the developer has sold all but the last few units - often the least desirable units will be left - he will no longer market the development, nor update his prices.

So, prices for these units will generally represent BELOW market value for the development as a whole - but it is extremely difficult to estimate how far below.

What we can say then is that the data that follows really compares our (most desirable units), with what are often essentially the least desirable (the last remaining) units.

So it is possible that any price increase could be said to indicate a MINIMUM price increase.

 

Price Growth: The Numbers
CountryDealCityMonths Since Launch (up to Jan 07)DepositAv. List Price / sqm @ Launch*Current Market Value / sqm*Price Growth vs. Av. List Price @ LaunchOverall RoI
PolandMarina MokotowWarsaw1820%4915901583%417%
PolandNowy WilanowWarsaw1620%5674784938%192%
PolandLegend ApartmentsKrakow1510%4842765958%582%
PolandFuture City IKrakow1520%39939453137%684%
PolandFuture City IIKrakow1415%4866945394%628%
PolandCentral ApartmentsWroclaw1520%63511139379%397%
PolandWestland CourtWarsaw1010%4999870074%740%
PolandPelikan CourtPoznan910%4899672237%372%
PolandEko ParkKrakow815%4946593320%133%
PolandMetro ApartmentsWarsaw1120%62751085973%365%
PolandFountain CourtWroclaw1120%4528746765%325%
PolandFuture City 2bKrakow815%5951945359%392%
PolandOlimpiaWarsaw820%5674705524%122%
PolandGarden HeightsKrakow820%638464000%1%
PolandRiverview ApartmentsPoznan710%4292486313%133%
PolandMosaic HouseWroclaw720%5454628715%76%
PolandThe Cotton MillLodz615%4546720058%389%
Slovak RepublicCrossroadsBratislava1730%334373789913%44%
Slovak RepublicNad LuckamiBratislava2130%405404537812%40%
Slovak RepublicIII TowersBratislava1430%473565399214%47%
Slovak RepublicUniversal ApartmentsBratislava930%45839469752%8%
Slovak RepublicKornell ApartmentsTrnava1030%36102362000%1%
RomaniaQuadra PlaceBucharest725%1120125512%48%
RomaniaWest ParkBucharest425%1387155312%48%
RomaniaPark ViewBucharest225%177318082%8%
Czech RepublicEuconPrague3230%428695300024%79%
Czech RepublicKouzelny MedlankyBrno2815%28644310008%55%
Czech RepublicKosmovaBrno2730%260003400031%103%
Czech RepublicKosikPrague2615%362824350020%130%
Czech RepublicZeleny UdoliPrague2415%386684400014%92%
Czech RepublicRepyPrague2015%337533800013%84%
Czech RepublicRed HillBrno1515%347904000015%100%
Czech RepublicNovy MedlankyBrno2315%31063330006%42%
LatviaUnity ApartmentsRiga2215%1418185030%203%

* Values are in local currency or Euro.

Polish prices quoted are black finish, exc VAT, parking, kitchens, storage & internal area. All other prices quoted are white finish, exc VAT, parking, kitchens, storage & internal area.

NB. We have only included developments launched to our clients more than six months ago (up to July 06).

What are we seeing?

Poland: continues to perform strongly right across the board throughout 2006 and this continued right up to the end of the year. The expected slow in Warsaw didn't happen and Poland's secondary cities have seen growth rates of over 70%.

Slovak Republic: has showed steady growth over the last year, and this continued at the same rate in the last quarter of 2006. The economic fundamentals of the Slovak Republic still look good and we expect a similar growth rate to continue in the next quarter.

Romania: the end of 2006 has seen the first signs that the Romanian property market is moving in the right direction. Exact growth rates are extremely difficult to judge but the all the noises are very positive.

Czech Republic: after very moderate growth over the last two years, the last quarter of 2006 saw the first signs of an increased growth rate. This is a start of a very positive trend in the wider Czech property market.

Latvia: The growth rates have not been as high as expected. The Latvian market is relatively highly priced and there is not the scope for large increases in prices in the near future.

My Opinion

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Join the discussion

Erico Rocha Property Secrets Deal Price Growth Update - how have you done?
Posted: Mar 16 07 11:35
Total Posts: 15
Users Rating:

Just 3 comments (meant in a constructive way). 1) The ROI advertised seems not the “real” ROI (because it does not include major costs like finders fee, legal, and estimated cost of selling) i.e. if one would sell at the price listed; he/she would make less return over investment than advertised. 2) Figures on Polish developments seem to be the same as the rednet estimated dated on 15.12.06. Markets have moved since (i.e. Wroclaw estimated average growth since jan 07 is 10%+ according rednet reports). I.e. figures published seems at 2 months old.3) I miss updates on Cyprus. Developments were launched more than 16 months ago. Why were they not included on the reports?

Average Rating: unrated
Peter Richardson Cyprus
Posted: Mar 16 07 12:18
Total Posts: 24
Users Rating:

Erico, Yes, an update on Cyprus is most welcome. It seems largely ignored in all the PS communications these days. I have found that getting re-sale values in Cyprus is difficult as there are so many new apartments and villas being built. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that the market is very quiet. I notice that the Majolikowa development in Warsaw has again been ignored. Is there a reason for this? Peter

Average Rating: unrated
David Lawrenson Property Secret Deals Price Update
Posted: Mar 16 07 12:36
Total Posts: 2
Users Rating: unrated

Growth looks very good. Do you also have any data on net rental yields (after running costs) for the competed projects. Thanks

Average Rating: unrated
 

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