(Please note: The individual unit prices Property Secrets has used for comparison are correct at the time of posting. But they are subject to increase or decrease due to market conditions.)
The last time we published the numbers on price growth for the deals we have offered to our members it was good news almost right across the board. That was back in October 2006. Now we can report back with a more comprehensive breakdown of the performance of the developments you have invested in through us.
And this time, it is largely great news.
A few words of warning beforehand though. Just like last time, there are a few things you need to be aware of when looking at the Returns on Investment, average market prices and the like.
Many of you will have read this before, but it's important that you bear this in mind!
Measuring performance
With new builds (off-plan deals), it is notoriously difficult to find an appropriate measure of real growth before they are completed - because the real proof of growth is the prices that units fetch when they are completed and start to come onto the secondary market.
Once completed units are being sold on the open market, then we can see clearly what profits are achievable - a direct measure of market value.
But there is another, slightly imperfect (but still very effective), measure that we can make before construction is complete.
During the construction phase of a development, we use the developer's prices.
This is by no means a certain reflection of value, and it's important to bear in mind what phase the construction of the development is in and what phase the sale of units is in.
Towards the latter stages of construction the developer will be keen to sell, as the construction phase nears its end. So this will often hold down prices.
Even more importantly, once the developer has sold all but the last few units - often the least desirable units will be left - he will no longer market the development, nor update his prices.
So, prices for these units will generally represent BELOW market value for the development as a whole - but it is extremely difficult to estimate how far below.
What we can say then is that the data that follows really compares our (most desirable units), with what are often essentially the least desirable (the last remaining) units.
So it is possible that any price increase could be said to indicate a MINIMUM price increase.
Price Growth: The Numbers| Country | Deal | City | Months Since Launch (up to Jan 07) | Deposit | Av. List Price / sqm @ Launch* | Current Market Value / sqm* | Price Growth vs. Av. List Price @ Launch | Overall RoI |
|---|
| Poland | Marina Mokotow | Warsaw | 18 | 20% | 4915 | 9015 | 83% | 417% |
| Poland | Nowy Wilanow | Warsaw | 16 | 20% | 5674 | 7849 | 38% | 192% |
| Poland | Legend Apartments | Krakow | 15 | 10% | 4842 | 7659 | 58% | 582% |
| Poland | Future City I | Krakow | 15 | 20% | 3993 | 9453 | 137% | 684% |
| Poland | Future City II | Krakow | 14 | 15% | 4866 | 9453 | 94% | 628% |
| Poland | Central Apartments | Wroclaw | 15 | 20% | 6351 | 11393 | 79% | 397% |
| Poland | Westland Court | Warsaw | 10 | 10% | 4999 | 8700 | 74% | 740% |
| Poland | Pelikan Court | Poznan | 9 | 10% | 4899 | 6722 | 37% | 372% |
| Poland | Eko Park | Krakow | 8 | 15% | 4946 | 5933 | 20% | 133% |
| Poland | Metro Apartments | Warsaw | 11 | 20% | 6275 | 10859 | 73% | 365% |
| Poland | Fountain Court | Wroclaw | 11 | 20% | 4528 | 7467 | 65% | 325% |
| Poland | Future City 2b | Krakow | 8 | 15% | 5951 | 9453 | 59% | 392% |
| Poland | Olimpia | Warsaw | 8 | 20% | 5674 | 7055 | 24% | 122% |
| Poland | Garden Heights | Krakow | 8 | 20% | 6384 | 6400 | 0% | 1% |
| Poland | Riverview Apartments | Poznan | 7 | 10% | 4292 | 4863 | 13% | 133% |
| Poland | Mosaic House | Wroclaw | 7 | 20% | 5454 | 6287 | 15% | 76% |
| Poland | The Cotton Mill | Lodz | 6 | 15% | 4546 | 7200 | 58% | 389% |
| Slovak Republic | Crossroads | Bratislava | 17 | 30% | 33437 | 37899 | 13% | 44% |
| Slovak Republic | Nad Luckami | Bratislava | 21 | 30% | 40540 | 45378 | 12% | 40% |
| Slovak Republic | III Towers | Bratislava | 14 | 30% | 47356 | 53992 | 14% | 47% |
| Slovak Republic | Universal Apartments | Bratislava | 9 | 30% | 45839 | 46975 | 2% | 8% |
| Slovak Republic | Kornell Apartments | Trnava | 10 | 30% | 36102 | 36200 | 0% | 1% |
| Romania | Quadra Place | Bucharest | 7 | 25% | 1120 | 1255 | 12% | 48% |
| Romania | West Park | Bucharest | 4 | 25% | 1387 | 1553 | 12% | 48% |
| Romania | Park View | Bucharest | 2 | 25% | 1773 | 1808 | 2% | 8% |
| Czech Republic | Eucon | Prague | 32 | 30% | 42869 | 53000 | 24% | 79% |
| Czech Republic | Kouzelny Medlanky | Brno | 28 | 15% | 28644 | 31000 | 8% | 55% |
| Czech Republic | Kosmova | Brno | 27 | 30% | 26000 | 34000 | 31% | 103% |
| Czech Republic | Kosik | Prague | 26 | 15% | 36282 | 43500 | 20% | 130% |
| Czech Republic | Zeleny Udoli | Prague | 24 | 15% | 38668 | 44000 | 14% | 92% |
| Czech Republic | Repy | Prague | 20 | 15% | 33753 | 38000 | 13% | 84% |
| Czech Republic | Red Hill | Brno | 15 | 15% | 34790 | 40000 | 15% | 100% |
| Czech Republic | Novy Medlanky | Brno | 23 | 15% | 31063 | 33000 | 6% | 42% |
| Latvia | Unity Apartments | Riga | 22 | 15% | 1418 | 1850 | 30% | 203% |
* Values are in local currency or Euro.
Polish prices quoted are black finish, exc VAT, parking, kitchens, storage & internal area. All other prices quoted are white finish, exc VAT, parking, kitchens, storage & internal area.
NB. We have only included developments launched to our clients more than six months ago (up to July 06).
What are we seeing?
Poland: continues to perform strongly right across the board throughout 2006 and this continued right up to the end of the year. The expected slow in Warsaw didn't happen and Poland's secondary cities have seen growth rates of over 70%.
Slovak Republic: has showed steady growth over the last year, and this continued at the same rate in the last quarter of 2006. The economic fundamentals of the Slovak Republic still look good and we expect a similar growth rate to continue in the next quarter.
Romania: the end of 2006 has seen the first signs that the Romanian property market is moving in the right direction. Exact growth rates are extremely difficult to judge but the all the noises are very positive.
Czech Republic: after very moderate growth over the last two years, the last quarter of 2006 saw the first signs of an increased growth rate. This is a start of a very positive trend in the wider Czech property market.
Latvia: The growth rates have not been as high as expected. The Latvian market is relatively highly priced and there is not the scope for large increases in prices in the near future.