some good material here, but seems somewhat unfinished - e.g. confusing double entry re UK, lack of france, italy, plus anywhere beyond europe and its immediate neighbours (e.g. malaysia - previously tipped by PS).
2007 has been an exciting year in the overseas property market.
Today we live in a world that has seen very high property price growth and has reached a point where many markets are possibly looking over-priced.
The future is less certain than it was last year due to global financial conditions, such as the current credit crunch.
As one would expect from such dynamic markets, things change quickly.
So, before the year is out, we thought it would be worth updating some of our price forecasts for the next 12 months.
The main changes to note are that Poland, which has been one of the best markets in the world over the last 2-3 years, is finally taking a breather.
Some of its cities are clearly overpriced in the short term, while others still have potential for good growth. Overall, the fundamentals of the market remain strong and the pause in growth is very welcome and will create a number of blue chip investment locations. We also note a continually strengthening rental market.
The Czech Republic has come back even more strongly than we predicted back at the end of 2006, and now looks like being a true blue chip investment location where one can combine low risk with good levels of growth.
The Slovak Republic, as we've always said, has good fundamentals but, as was the case with the the Czech Republic, it had some short term oversupply issues to resolve. As we approach the end of 2007 it looks like there is a good chance that the Slovak Republic will start to perform more strongly in 2008.
Romania has commenced its boom, as we said it would, and is already providing very high returns to investors. We expect this boom to continue unhindered throughout 2008. As further mortgage finance products enter the market Romania is likely to form an ever-increasingly large part in investors' portfolios.
Much of the fuss over the last few years on the Bulgarian coast and ski resorts is finally coming to an end with most people staying well clear of them. Now many investors are turning to the Bulgarian cities that are still well priced and have good potential for steady sustainable growth.
We aim to find investment locations that offer superior growth potential for a lower risk. These are usually markets that other people think are risky, boring or dull. But, by using fuzzy analysis we believe that we can pick out the markets that have been unfairly overlooked or wrongly judged as dull. We also tend to avoid the markets that everyone else is jumping into - and especially new holiday home markets.
Property Secrets' editorial team has examined a huge range of property markets, applied our own special brand of Fuzzy Analysis (for a full explanation of 'fuzzy analysis', click here!) and now give our expectations for the next 12 months.
Predicting the future of property markets is far from a science.
But with the right mixture of hard data and 'fuzzy analysis' you can make educated projections.
It's all about analysing the past, looking at what is happening now and taking that forward...as well as really knowing the markets.
So, here's what our research reveals - see what you think and please do let us know if you agree or disagree...
» Download the Property Secrets 2008 Property Price Forecast Spreadsheet
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| Dan W | Property Secrets' 12 Month Property Price Forecasts | ||||||||||
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Posted: Oct 11 07 11:26
Total Posts: 55 Users Rating:
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some good material here, but seems somewhat unfinished - e.g. confusing double entry re UK, lack of france, italy, plus anywhere beyond europe and its immediate neighbours (e.g. malaysia - previously tipped by PS).
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Posted: Oct 11 07 17:01
Total Posts: 182 Users Rating:
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Hi Dan Couple of points. The UK has a double entry because back at the end of 2006 we forecast on cities, but for this update we have focused on regions. On Malaysia, we didn't so much tip it, as suggest it as an option for the less risk averse investor. When we were over there looking at the possibility of deals, it didn't work for us. As for the 'unfinished' feel, it is an update on the 2006 end of year forecasts and not our definitive forecasts - at least that's how I understand it.
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| Sanj | Consistency with future growth in investment reports | ||||||||||
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Posted: Oct 11 07 22:21
Total Posts: 54 Users Rating:
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Hi I agree with many of the figures quoted but I'm not sure how these are consistent with the figures that are used for the ROI projections. For example, in Wroclaw, the model last year assumed a growth rate of 13% + 5% = 18% for the next 5 years. Clearly this has changed due to a slow down but are you saying: a) the 18% growth rate reflects an average over 5 years b) the developments PS have chosen are expected to outperform the market. The projections in the spreadsheet usually highlight double digit growth over a 5 year period(and often quoted as conservative estimates) but clearly there needs to be a degree of consistency I think with your future expectations as indicated in your latest predictions. Hope this makes sense! Regards
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