Bucharest, Romanian mortgages and the new TriCity opportunity
5th December 2006

East European PropertyI spend a good chunk of my working life on a plane these days. Another large part is spent in cabs to and from airports.

Sounds boring? Well, I could think of better ways to pass a few hours, but it does give me a chance to organise my thoughts about the property markets I'm deal-hunting in. I like to focus on the deals themselves, but also, as you'll find out, I like to consider the wider market picture.

Is Bucharest 'expensive'?

Take Bucharest, a place I've been visiting a great deal lately.

It really is extremely hard to properly convey exactly how fast the Bucharest property market is moving.

It's quite simply roaring.

And confirmation of EU membership from 2007 has undoubtedly upped the pace at which this market is developing.

Abd yet in a very real sense this market is still in its infancy.

Think I'm hyping the place? OK, let's have some facts.

I know a few people look at prices in Bucharest and feel that they look high.

Let's put that in perspective.

When we're dealing with suggestions that prices are high, we always need to consider what this actually means. We need to apply a little theory of relativity here. When we say high, we mean high relative to other similar markets.

So, let's take Warsaw. And let me explain why Bucharest and Warsaw are actually complement each other perfectly in any well-balanced portfolio.

Look at what Warsaw is today - a market that has gone through its turbo charged early growth phase and is now facing years of solid double-digit growth. A super secure market in a capital that is cementing its position as THE regional city.

Of course, you can still identify excellent super-high growth locations in Warsaw, but generally it is a market now identified by its blue chip character.

Three years ago, for off-plan units in good locations in Warsaw you were looking at prices of around PLN4,000 - around €1,050.

That seemed high then, and there were plenty of people saying it was high.

Now, what are you looking at?

Prices of PLN8000, PLN9000, and PLN10,000-plus psm. Up around 150 per cent in three years. The solid growth will continue, but it will probably not be at such high levels.

The voices of those who said prices were high have simply been drowned out by the cheers of investors who piled in three years ago.

And Bucharest? Guess what - prices of units in good locations are around.....€1,050 psm!

Sense of d? vu? You should have.

Generally, I think there is a tendency for apartments in Bucharest to be slightly bigger than in Warsaw, which perhaps makes the prices seem higher, but the price per square metre is the same as Warsaw three years ago. Fact.

Psychologically, I think as well that because Bucharest prices are in euros, they sound higher. The reality is they're not.

Here are some more facts to show you why I believe Bucharest's growth has barely started yet.

Right now there are some 88 developments on-going in Warsaw.

In Bucharest?

About seven.

Kind of puts things into perspective, doesn't it? At least it does for me.

Here are some other things to think about.

Bucharest is a considerably bigger city than Warsaw with a correspondingly higher population: some four million in the greater metropolitan area compared to Warsaw's 1.7 million. Does this give it even more potential long term than Warsaw? I doubt that, but I do think it's a measure of how much potential it has!

Bucharest dominates the country and is responsible for around 20 per cent of the nation's GDP. Its people are more than twice as rich as the Romanian average. GDP per head in Bucharest is some $20,000.

Warsaw produces around 15 per cent of Poland's GDP. GDP per head is around $28,000.

To me, the fact that Bucharest is so dominant in the Romanian economy is a vital sign - just as Warsaw is in Poland. Although, of course, we now have the strong emergence of Krakow and 2nd tier cities in Poland, where we can find accelerated capital growth in the property markets. Cities like Lodz, Wroclaw, Poznan and now Katowice, which is an exciting example of a post-industrial city reinventing itself. Nevertheless, this dominance is a key measure of how much the property market in Bucharest will grow as demand surges.

When you think of Bucharest, think Warsaw three years ago. Think property price rises of 150 per cent over three years! That's the reality. What Bucharest has is the same potential as Warsaw. And what Warsaw is now becoming - a great regional centre, dominating its sphere of influence - is how I see Bucharest undoubtedly developing.

So, Bucharest and Warsaw are two markets at different stages of development - exactly what is needed in a well-constructed portfolio.

And, whether you buy through Property Secrets or not, here's my tip on where to buy in Bucharest: again, something we can see in Warsaw

The traffic in the city is, like Warsaw, atrocious during rush hours. What this means is that the metro is going to become increasingly important to people living there. We all know what a tube station does for a location in London. Well, the tube factor in Buchrest - just as it is in Warsaw - is going to be huge!

Mortgages in Romania

A lot of investors have asked me how I see the Romanian mortgage market as it applies to foreigners.

My answer has to be that right now it's very ordinary indeed - not especially attractive.

In fact, although there are products available, right at this moment, I'd say you'd actually be better off borrowing in the UK.

But no Property Secrets investors need to borrow right now!

Let me tell you why anyone would be nuts to let the current state of the mortgage market put them off investing in Romania - or any other market at a similar stage of development.

The foremost reason is that if you're considering investing in Romania, then you're NOT considering borrowing right now!

What is really important to realise here is how fast this market is moving.

Again, a few facts.

Until March this year, you simply could not borrow in the Romanian market. There were no products. End of story.

Six months later, there are several products and the market is changing almost every week.

Bear this in mind - banks only produce products if they detect there is demand.

Six months after restrictions are lifted, they detect a demand. But the real demand, of course, will come much further down the line when the new builds, the off-plan developments, start to near completion. That is when investors will need their mortgage offers, not now when any validity will have expired by the time of completion.

Volksbank is a key player in this market and they have now introduced a mortgage product. Others will inevitably follow suit.

This idea that mortgage products for foreigners are not readily available should put no one off this market, to my mind. The demand has been there from Romanians in Spain and from Spanish investors for some time now. And, guess what - the products for Spanish investors are much more advanced. The same is true if you're resident in Italy. The UK will follow suit, it is just a little behind.

And, again - this is not just sell.

Here's the worst-case scenario.

18 months to two years down the line, there are barely any decent mortgage products available, despite the rapidly rising demand (a barely credible prospect). So, what's the solution?

Borrow at home, of course!

But this simply is not going to be the case.

Look at the Czech Republic and Poland models. All the economic data is at least on a par with these markets a few years ago. And what happened in these markets is that the finance products developed to meet demand. This is exacly what will happen in Romania.

Already we're seeing big players like Volksbank coming into the market with a product and I happen to know that others are being worked on. But, to be honest, it's going to be another six months to a year before the demand for these products really drives a lot diversity - as developments start to come on stream and the demand for mortgage offers starts accelerate.

Like I say, banks respond to demand.

Where's the new TriCity going to be?

Time, I think, to start looking for the next investment location to follow the price boom in Bucharest.

My tip, and the place where I've been working to pin down a deal, is Constanza.

The reasons can best be summed up by looking at the TriCity area of Poland. What the two areas have in common is very telling.

Both places are coastal. Both are key ports. Both have the best beaches in their respective countries. Both have excellent employment levels with an increasing number of jobs coming on stream.

The TriCity area - basically the three cities of Gdansk, Sopot and Gdynia - are where affluent Poles go to relax at the weekend.

The TriCity area is around a two and a half hour drive from Warsaw. Constanza is actually going to be quicker from Bucharest once the new connecting highway is finshed - it's about 75 per cent done. This will cut the drive time from Bucharest to around one and a half hours.

Constanza even looks a similar shape to the Gdansk area on the map. It is very enclosed and a long spit of land almost forms an inland lagoon.

Carrefour has just finished a massive superstore just outside the town, which tells us something of consumer demand prospects.

Now for some numbers. There are just two developments taking place of any size in Constanza right now. The place hasn't even started to exploit its potential.

So, what have prices done in the TriCity area of Poland? Well, TriCity has seen incredible growth as anyone who has invested there knows. Prices are now on a par with Warsaw, at between €2,600 (PLN10,000) and €3,000 (PLN12,000) psm.

And in Constanza?

Around €750 psm. Says it all really, doesn't it?

My Opinion

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