Our partner in Romania is Tavi Bota. Tavi, a Romanian entrepreneur with British residency, has studied the Romanian property market for many years and is widely recognised as the country's best-informed independent property market analyst.
Tavi was instrumental in the production of the Property Secrets Romanian Market Forecast report two years ago, which correctly predicted a number of property investment opportunities in Romania.
With all our deal finders, the first thing we do when they put forward a deal for consideration is to subject them to the Elevator Test - can they convince us quickly that this is a great deal. Here are our questions and Tavi's answers...
'My Dream', Tavi - strange name! Tell us why it's your 'dream' investment then?
Yes, it is a slightly odd name; but it's been named in English and there's no Romanian equivalent. Still, what's in a name?
OK, there are so many things happening in the Bucharest - and wider Romanian - market right now, it's hard to know where to start.
Basically, there are a number of factors why this is terrific investment in a market that is entering a completely new phase of development. This is without question.
Let me run through the most important of these factors, and explain the characteristics of this development and the opportunity I'm convinced it represents.
Anyone looking at this deal really does need to look at what is happening in the Bucharest market as a whole before anything else...
Sounds like there's a lot going on - why not run us through situation in the market in Bucharest?
Yes. Bucharest residential right now is at the start of a brand new phase of development.
Like most markets, first the developers were interested in commercial property, then retail and the only real residential development going on was very high end stuff.
Now we are seeing a shift of emphasis to more modest, but still reasonably expensive developments, by Romanian standards.
But I want to say here that the market in Bucharest often surprises many people who expect it to be much less pricey than it is. The prices shock some people and I think this is because of a simple reason - we missed out the gradual price rises seen in many other CEE markets.
Here what happened was that right at the start of the opening up of the property development market, a couple of developers set their prices - one chose what he thought he'd get and the other took a punt and set very much higher prices. Guess which one sold out first!
The expensive one!
So, at a stroke the price benchmark moved up, not by a notch or two, but by many notches. So, we simply missed out the slow growth phase.
This is one reason why this market is moving at a blistering rate and I remain utterly convinced the rate of growth will speed up.
So, what happened in Bucharest was that we had - and still do have - a very expensive luxury residential area right in the centre, mostly made up of villas.
This is the top, top end. Then another area, slightly to the north of the city developed - Primaverrii. This is also an area dominated by villas and, basically, it's the next poshest place outside the centre.
Then, as land prices took off, as they have done in the last few years, it was no longer affordable to build and sell villas. This is when the area of Pipera-tunari started to develop - less expensive than Primaverrii, but still a well-to-do area.
But no one is building villas anymore - it is all going to be apartment blocks.
In the case of My Dream, we have a development that is certainly not luxury, and is in fact very affordable - it is the most affordable development in a mid to high-end residential area.
So, the well-to-do neighborhoods outside the centre are in the north of the city?
Yes, and this is the key to seeing how well My Dream is situated. Not only is it a cornerstone, prestige development within the area, but the area itself is some five kms from Primaverii and between these two highly desirable areas a truly massive office development of over one million sqm is taking place.
And just to the north of our development - almost within walking distance - is the €1.3 billion Baneasa development - the biggest retail development in the region, let alone just Romania. Incidentally, this complex will bring the first IKEA to the country!
In addition My Dream is a mere five kms from the airport.
So, Pipera-tunari is sandwiched between the two most important developments in Bucharest - the massive retail complex just to the north and next to the most important new business district in the capital.
You would simply have to be blind not to see the huge migration of business to the north of the capital!
This is why this is such a great area, because it is so clearly defined, which is unusual in Bucharest.
What do you mean by clearly defined and why is this an advantage?
OK, well what I mean by this is that Bucharest is a residential property market that is undergoing the transition from luxury to more affordable developments.
It has many brownfield sites - mainly old industrial plants, right in residential areas that can no longer be used and will be developed. These are scattered and so it's impossible to say which areas will provide the fastest property price growth.
These brownfield sites are Bucharest's wild cards.
BUT - and this is the key - the Pipera-Tunari area has already clearly been defined as bordering new and important business and retail areas, and it's already a mid to highish end residential area that is developing rapidly. We know what this area is and will increasingly become.
It is already a desirable area to live, but its appeal now will really take off. It's not possible to say this about many other areas with any certainty.
So, what I'd like to stress is that this is an ultra safe investment in a market that is going to rocket in value. This is its central appeal.
You could buy anything in Bucharest and you could see very strong growth over the next couple of years. Like I say, these brownfield sites may offer huge rewards further down the line when they start being developed.
But to be certain of that growth now, and in the long term, well, that's a different matter. I think this is what My Dream offers.
Rocket in value? Care to put a figure on that?
Yes. Apart from being a safe investment, this area is going to experience very strong growth. Whether it will turn out to be the strongest growth in the capital only a fool or a conman would try to predict.
But I firmly forecast we'll see growth for the next year or two of - to be very conservative - 15 per cent; more realistically, 30 per cent.
The beauty of My Dream is that we have identified the best value development in the area - some €100 psm cheaper than a comparable development, according to the valuation report - as well as the best value units in the development itself - the cheapest, in other words.
I think this is very appealing because prices always even themselves out over the long-term and we will see our prices coming up faster than the more expensive units.
My Dream will become more desirable than it already is because it is going to be surrounded by more up-market developments - for example a development of luxury houses - the Oxford Residences - will be built opposite. This kind of thing will give My Dream a big up-lift.
I'd say that in a very dynamic and rapidly changing market, which is what Bucharest is, My Dream offers the investor a rock solid certainty of strong capital growth.
East European Property Romania Property Property Investment Europe
My Opinion
Did you find this article interesting and useful? |
Start the discussion
| Upgrade to PRO membership |
|
To post on the Property Secrets Community Forums, or subscribe to email updates from the Forum, youneed a Property Secrets PRO membership. |
Related Articles
- Black gold rush - Canada’s Alberta is tempting property investors and a tiny town in particular...
- Property investment: The secret of massively reducing the risk factor
- PS FDI Monitor - February 2008
- Prague Booms - But Comes With a Price Warning
- Flip flop - or smart strategy? Can flipping make sense in rapidly growing property markets?
- Two strategies for property investors in Roaring Romania
Related Downloads
Blogs
More from PS blogs ...
Email This Article
Print This Article




ES