(Please note: The individual unit prices Property Secrets has used for comparison are correct at the time of posting. But they are subject to increase or decrease by the developer over time.)

We are fully aware here at Property Secrets that nothing speaks more loudly about our previous deals than cold hard performance data.

At the end of the day, it is price data that we always use to measure our success - and so do our members.

Forecasting general long-term price trends in a property market is never easy.

And, in the short-term, where many unforeseen, temporary and cyclical factors can play a part, the job is even harder.

We say this because we believe it is vital that our members realise that data that shows fabulous growth - and, indeed, data that shows less spectacular growth - may well be affected by several important factors, which we will discuss below.

What we're saying here, in a nutshell, is 'When you consider long-term growth prospects, be very cautious about reading too much into data that can only measure a relatively short period.'

Even so, the data below on Poland does suggest a new strategic option for investors - more in a moment.

So, to cut to the chase, we are able to offer two sets of performance data at this time - for our Polish deals and those in the Slovak Republic.

And have our deals beaten the market average?

The answer in Poland's case is yes! A resounding yes!

In the case of the Slovak Republic, the answer is yes, again, but by a far smaller margin.

Now, before we go any further, let's recap on how we are measuring capital growth here.

Measuring our performance

With new builds (off-plan deals), it is notoriously difficult to find an appropriate measure of real growth before they are completed - because the real proof of growth is the prices that units fetch when they are completed and start to come onto the secondary market.

Once completed units are being sold on the open market, then we can see clearly what profits are achievable - a direct measure of market value.

But there is another, slightly imperfect (but still very effective), measure that we can make before construction is complete.

During the construction phase of a development, we use the developer's prices.

This is by no means a certain reflection of value, and it's important to bear in mind what phase the construction of the development is in and what phase the sale of units is in.

Towards the latter stages of construction the developer will be keen to sell, as the construction phase nears its end. So this will often hold down prices.

Even more importantly, once the developer has sold all but the last few units - often the least desirable units will be left - he will no longer market the development, nor update his prices.

So, prices for these units will generally represent BELOW market value for the development as a whole - but it is extremely difficult to estimate how far below.

What we can say then is that the data that follows really compares our (most desirable units), with what are often essentially the least desirable (the last remaining) units.

So it is possible that any price increase could be said to indicate a MINIMUM price increase.

Inexact science

Property Secrets Head of Research & Analysis Simon Tweddle explains: "This is by no means an exact science, especially given the rate of growth in some of these markets and the fact that a lot of the developments were only sold a few months ago, meaning any extrapolations have a wide margin for error.

'The true value of something is what it sells for.

'But, while the data can never be entirely relied on at this stage, what it does do is give a good indication of the amount of capital growth.'

Here's a summary of our annualised performance in Poland and the Slovak Republic, as of June 2006.

What clearly stands out here is the exceptional performance of the Polish deals where growth has been blistering - details below - and the less than spectacular performance of our three deals in Bratislava.

Bear in mind, however, that annualised growth is often a great deal less than actual growth in year one because annualised growth does not take into account the discount we achieved on each deal, which represented real capital growth, locked in from day one.

Even so, Bratislava clearly needs some explaining.

"I think what we're seeing in Bratislava,' said Simon Tweddle, 'is a maturing of the market. I think, essentially, that, for a time at least, we've entered a steadier growth phase. This is highly likely to simply be a pause, rather than an end to the very rapid growth of the recent past.'

One way we can explain this is the way FDI works. While big projects have been announced and more are planned in Slovakia and the economy is continuing to grow well, the effects of that FDI, in terms of jobs, take time to kick in.

So, in other words, growth is not a curve, it moves in jerks and then plateaus for a while.

'One thing is for sure,' said Tweddle, 'we will see the same pattern in Poland because the kind of capital growth we're seeing now simply cannot continue indefinitely.

'I don't think it's anything to be concerned about in either market. The case for investing in either country, long term, is clear and that hasn't changed a jot.'

Property Secrets CEO, Neil Lewis, commented: 'Clearly our deals in Poland are showing spectacular results, quite exceptional.

'And then, at first sight, I think we have to say that the deals in the Slovak Republic have underperformed.

'But we need to put that into perspective. Look at what we are measuring here and over how long. Does several months' data that is then annualised really tell you much about growth in the long term? Almost certainly not!

'Is this an argument for not investing in Bratislava for the medium to long term? Definitely not!

'One year's growth - rather like a discount on the initial price - will not be significant within a ten year cycle, and we have always stressed the ten year investment.

'BUT, what the Polish data does highlight is the possibility of taking some of the exceptional gains right now - selling some of the best performing units and keeping others - probably the best rental units. '

But, while this might seem attractive as a strategy, the price growth may not be quite so spectacular as the data suggests.

Simon Tweddle again: 'We have to accept another possible distortion. There's a well-known phenomenon in Poland among sales agents. They have a quota - a sales target each month - and once that is achieved, they will often simply ramp up the price of units and sit back and see if they sell. This is widespread and there is no doubt it can distort the data.'

Rental effects

Another aspect of this data is that it would indicate that the rental market in Bratislava should be picking up - and possibly the reverse is happening in the Polish deal areas (that's the price of accelerated capital growth).

In Bratislava, however, where capital growth has been slower, we would normally expect the rental market to be picking up.

Neil Lewis: 'This is an area our analysts are actively examining. It would be very surprising indeed if we had seen a slowing of capital growth - ie; less money coming to market to buy - as well as a static rental market. That would go against the dynamics of a property market.

'But, we must remember, that there is always a lag between capital growth slowing and rental growth occurring - normally around six months. So we will need to keep an eye on this.'

To download the spreadsheet (Lite and PRO members only) showing the full Deal Performance data for each individual development:

CLICK HERE FOR MICROSOFT EXCEL VERSION...

CLICK HERE FOR MICROSOFT WORD VERSION...