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Our partner in Romania is Tavi Bota. Tavi, a Romanian entrepreneur with British residency, has studied the Romanian property market for many years and is widely recognised as the country's best-informed independent property market analyst.
Tavi was instrumental in the production of the Property Secrets Romanian Market Forecast report two years ago, which correctly predicted a number of property investment opportunities in Romania.
With all our deal finders, the first thing we do when they put forward a deal for consideration is to subject them to the Elevator Test - can they convince us quickly that this is a great deal. Here are our questions and Tavi's answers...
Tavi, tell us about Constanta - basically, why have you focused on it as the next boom city outside of Bucharest?
Yes, I think this is vital to understand because we are coming into this city at a very early stage and that means the opportunity is there for tremendous growth. BUT it's important to understand that this deal is about a development AND a location.
There are a number of pretty clear reasons why we're so bullish about Constanta.
It's the second city in the country - or maybe the third, depending on whose population count you accept! Either way, this is not important. What matters is that, with around 350,000 people, it is part of the 2nd tier grouping of cities in Romania.
Some of these large cities are declining, some are growing.
Iasi in the north is shrinking; but others are growing fast. Constanta on the Black Sea is one of these, along with the western cities: Timisoara, Arad and Oradea.
All these cities have populations of around 350,000 people - and so are still relatively small compared to the country size of 21 million. We expect these cities to triple in size to over one million in the next 15 to 25 years.
This growth will take place because, as Romania develops economically, we will see rural populations moving to regional cites because that is where the jobs will be. Naturally the size of these cities will swell.
Outside of the capital, Constanta is THE major regional city in Eastern Romania.
And, at just 210 kms from Bucharest, Constanta is Eastern Europe's new gateway.
We're going to really see the impact of this when the new Sun Highway, linking Bucharest with Constanta, is complete - it's already 75 per cent finished, so it's not just a planning dream.
This expressway will link booming Romania's biggest port - the country's ONLY major port, to be exact - directly with the capital.
As the only major port in Romania - the growth of this city is inevitable. Constanta will be strategically positioned to be the gateway for New Europe.
It's also a tourist resort, isn't it?
This is true, but I think this should be seen as a bonus rather than a fundamental reason for the appeal of this location and this development.
Constanta has a strong commercial and industrial backbone to its economy and we can say that on top of this it enjoys a significant tourist spend. So, yes, this is a consideration, but NOT the major one.
The most developed tourist resort on the Black Sea is Mamaia - which, incidentally, means 'Grandma' - is to the north of Constanta and very near our development. Again, a bonus.
The resort is like Cancun - or Mar Menor in Spain. Except that it has a major city and port attached - which is why I think it's much better to compare Constanta with Gdnask in Poland.
OK, so the port is the key to Constanta then? Will the EU make a difference to the speed of its development?
Undoubtedly. The port will expand faster because of the EU. It is THE entry point for the EU into the country. Previously goods arriving in Istanbul or Athens will shift to Constanta.
This is the difference the Sun Highway will make - it will allow importers and exporters to take advantage of the EU economic opportunity.
The port handles both containers and bulk or raw materials, so it has no rival. The average volume growth rates for the port have been 45 per cent a year over the past 5 years.
And Constanta already has 44 per cent of the market share for Black Sea container traffic. That's an increase of 99 per cent since 2004. The next biggest port is in Ukraine with a market share of only 16%.
Bulgaria's key port of Varna is growing at less than one fifth of the rate of Constanta.
What about the EU and other investment in the area?
I think increased volumes for the port are really an indirect product of EU membership. Now membership is a reality, I think this will only increase, probably at an even faster pace.
Constanta's port has also benefited directly in the form of ERBD (The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) investment money to help it expand and develop. The fact that the ERBD chose Constanta to invest in is significant because it targets projects and locations that it sees as helping a country most to develop a free market economy.
Last autumn Constanta port opened a new passenger terminal - so it can now benefit from the growth of the cruising industry and the arrival of wealthy passengers, which will strengthen its tourist potential.
Another big plus is the NATO base that will be located near Constanta.
This will be a rapid reaction force - which will not only bring lots of jobs, but will also herald a substantial increase in the development of infrastructure - airports and roads, and so on.
To me, this is yet another guarantee of the long-term development potential of this city.
A NATO base sounds like a big economic boost - any experience of the effects of a base like this elsewhere?
Actually, yes. The same kind of rapid reaction force base was set up recently in Valencia in Spain. And the experience is that they bring in a number of international army families and personnel. Perhaps most interesting - they are also likely to want to live in a location like Constanta Residenz (although they will probably choose houses). This could well create an additional rental market all by itself.
So, that brings us to the development itself. Sell it to us.
In short - it's the only development in Constanta with a master plan and a vision.
Romanians want new build - they've have had enough of the old stuff. Hence new build will increase in price faster than existing buildings, there's no doubt about that. It will simply create more interest and more demand and that will be translated into price rises.
A similar split of existing vs. new build property prices happened just like this in Spain and it's a well known phenomenon. It will happen the same way here.
Location is always important, of course. And this development is perfectly located - between the airport, which is 35 kms away, convenient for Constanta centre (15 minutes away), and near a massive commercial and retail development.
Nearby, developers are building new residential units - but are building to the north - so our development remains nearer to the city and so, I strongly believe, will be preferred.
We have looked at other developments, but we turned them down because they are focussed on houses - not apartments.
And there are often questions about the building quality. We've avoided these developments and instead sourced a development with Tomis, which is a local developer and therefore needs to fiercely defend its reputation.
This developer has a proven business background in Romania and, as is common in many New Europe countries, they have come from other commercial ventures before moving into property development.
But this isn't just a block of apartments, is it? It seems to be a whole complex of amenities?
Yes, that's right. It's much, much more than just a residential development. The development plan includes a spa with gym and tennis courts, a min-market and commercial galleries, a kindergarten and a school - a private school. This will be premium location to live in.
And these facilities - which will be completed towards the end of the project - will serve the wider area, not just the development.
The commercial facilities will also be revenue generating and so are an extra investment into the location.
How did you select the specific units being offered?
We are in on the first phase of apartments, but the second phase of the project. Ten villas are currently under construction as part of the first phase of the project.
To my mind it is always best to get into a project at an early phase - if not the first phase - as this locks in maximum growth potential.
There are two areas of blocks - high-rise at the front of development - and lower rise at the back. These, unsurprisingly, are less expensive. So we have the less expensive units. A bit like the old adage of not buying the most expensive house in the street!
More importantly, we have chosen the smaller sized apartments to maximise the rental yield.
Give us some capital growth expectations, Tavi...
OK. I forecast 25 per cent over six months. So, exceptional growth!
25 per cent in six months! How come?
Several reasons lead me to conclude this, based on my knowledge of the Romanian market.
This is currently the cheapest project in Constanta.
We're in at the very first phase of apartments.
The boom has not yet hit Constanta and so local people really don't understand how fast and how property prices will go. This is important, because it means Property Secrets investors will be arriving on the scene before the mad rush to buy.
The developer has also built in price increases planned for the second phase of apartments - probably around March - of around five to six per cent. But this is based on current demand, and I believe this will start to take off in the spring and again be boosted in the summer. And we're going to see price increases way in excess of this level.
Tourists will hit the coast from 1st May - and this development will get massive promotion in Bucharest from this time - as well as in Constanta.
There are few developers in Constanta at moment. But, as more developers are drawn to Constanta, so this will drive prices faster. These new developers will be buying more land - at perhaps twice the price of that local developers paid just two years ago.
Here's a fact that is worth noting.
Every year since 2002, in some key locations in Romania, land prices have doubled. Bucharest land price has tripled in price in the last four years!
All these factors will lead to big price increases.
The great opportunity is for investors to get into the market BEFORE the boom.
It's our experience in New Europe that cities boom earlier and faster than anyone forecasted, and I see no reason why Constanta shouldn't grow just as quickly as those boom locations in Poland.
So, you believe this is investing before the boom?
Definitely. We've seen nothing yet...
In many ways, investors will be getting into the next Krakow or the new Gdansk BEFORE any price boom. This is like buying in Poland in 2003. This is the stage we are at in Constanta.
I believe property prices could easily double in the next few years.
Having said that, I need to add that while the boom has yet to arrive, and while price growth will be exceptional, exactly when that boom will come - the exact date of its start - is impossible to predict.
But I believe that figure of 25 per cent growth in six months is a reasonable expectation - based on experience of other fast growth New Europe property markets.
That 25 per cent growth over six months will be followed by the boom proper - which may arrive sooner or a little later - but almost certainly before construction completes.
This is based on our experience of similar markets.
Has Romania been a little slow to pick up on the concept of off-plan buying?
New ideas take a little while to be fully understood in Romania. Such things as credit cards and all kinds of financial products take a while to be explained and accepted.
I believe Romanians will have a shock in six months time when they see blocks being finished and they realise they were able to buy such properties - and, let's face it - buy into a whole new lifestyle.
They will be told that the apartment they see - that's now built - was actually sold 18 months ago. And now they need to pay a premium price - or wait in line for 18 months for a cheaper location.
Romanians have not yet been though this process - so they have not experienced the lack of supply and rapid price growth.
When this realisation dawns, things will change in a big way. Any investors should want to secure their investments before this happens.
In Bucharest, so far, we've only seen the completion of luxury units.
The big scale developments - targeting the middle class - only started to be built 12 months ago. So in the next 12 months a number of developments will be completed and hit the market and the impact will be huge.
We have seen the massive price increases in Poland - once units start being completed. Soon we will have the same queues as in Poland.
What about credit in Romania? Isn't it still rather restricted on the local market?
Actually, this is a good point because this is another reason for the coming boom - the growth in borrowing.
Right now, Romanian banks, by law, can only lend 75 per cent loan to value. From March, this restriction will be dropped and the banks will be allowed to set whatever level of deposit they like. This will super charge the mortgage market, greatly increasing the supply of credit and lowering the affordability barrier for thousands of Romanians.
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