Romania is a new market for Property Secrets. To find out why our Investment Director believes now is the time to get into Bucharest, we gave him the elevator test.
Could he convince us in one minute (or perhaps a little more!) why Romania, Bucharest and Quadra Place represent a great opportunity for investors?
This is the first time we've offered a deal in Romania - what's changed to make you believe now is the right time to do a deal there?
Developers, as is often the case elsewhere in emerging markets, start off by producing large commercial and retail projects. When they move into the residential sector, it's invariably at the top end. That's what happened in Romania. I see the market for luxury units as limited and the prices inflated.
But we've been looking at Romania for some time now and we've been waiting for the right development and the right deal to pop up. I've looked at a lot of developments and, to be honest, I've struggled to find anything I liked.
But Quadra Place is right for our investors, as far as I'm concerned, because it's the first development that offers units aimed more at the emerging middle classes in Bucharest, rather than the luxury end of the market. And this is the market in which I believe, as always, that we are going to see the most growth.
Romania is a terrifically hot market right now and moving very fast. But I think we can say that what we are offering here is a superb, ground floor opportunity.
What about finance? Isn't the big problem with Romania that there is no finance available for foreigners?
That's absolutely true and this is a crucial factor in us going into the market at this point. Once finance becomes available for foreigners, I think it's going to open up the market to a big extent.
Yes, but right now there still is no finance for overseas investors, is there?
That's true, but - and this is a big BUT - this is all about to change - and I'm talking about change coming in a matter of weeks.
A couple of months ago the banking rules changed to allow loans for foreign property investors. This has meant that banks are now rushing to be first to market with new products.
It's difficult to be precise on terms, but we are probably looking at borrowing rates of 6% - much less if you borrow in euros - and loan to value ratios of 75%. But we'll know for sure in the next few weeks.
Of course, investing just before finance opens up a market, is a pretty shrewd move!
The point is that availability will be a big boost to the market.
OK, so what kind of growth are you predicting?
I'm always loath to predict exact figures on capital growth. But I can say right now that the way this market is going, I'd be very surprised indeed if we didn't see 30% growth in the next 12 months.
But aren't prices in Bucharest already very expensive?
I think some people have unrealistic expectations on price when they look at CEE markets, and Bucharest is another example of this.
In short, no, I don't think Bucharest is expensive.
But I do admit that when I first started to look at this market, it did strike me that prices seemed high.
But the reason soon became clear - developers were building enormous units - 70, 80, even 90 sqm one-bedroom apartments, for example - which is massive. So, the total cost for a one-bed apartment, say, would appear to be huge.
And there is no doubt that Romanians are demanding a bigger sized unit, in general.
But when you look at the price per square metre, then you can start to make comparisons.
And what we find is that Bucharest is around 30% cheaper than Warsaw.
So, there is plenty of upside here. This is a booming city and it's been booming for a few years now. People are getting rich fast. The people are also extremely keen to have material possessions: clothes, nice cars and - just around the corner - a nice, modern apartment.
Units in the Quadra Place development are much smaller, far more in tune with the market as it is now going to develop.
How do you mean? How is this market going to develop?
Basically, this market has just moved out of the Wild West stage.
And this is a key feature of the timing of this deal.
Ordinary, aspirant people, do not yet fully appreciate that these new build apartments are available and affordable. Obviously, this is changing rapidly.
But it's important, I think, to understand that the people living in the old panelaks, who were pretty much given their apartments - can sell them for only slightly less than they can buy a new build. That is how things are at the moment and this obviously represents a fantastic opportunity because this is going to change very, very rapidly.
If the choice is between a Soviet-era panelak and a modern new build, well, it's really a no-brainer. So demand, which is already very high and driving up prices fast, is going to increase exponentially.
The structure of this deal is very different, isn't it? How come you're offering such a short time for people to make a decision about investing?
There's a land grab going on in Romania right now. There are 343 units in this development and 100 have already been sold, without any marketing whatsoever.
Basically, this is an opportunity with a very short brief lifespan.
Take it, or it'll be gone. That's the plain reality here. There are plenty of other buyers ready and willing to hand over the full asking price for these units, whereas we have secured a choice selection of apartments at last week's prices - i.e. 4.8% less than the current selling price.
On June 13th the prices are going up again, another 5%. This is an opportunity to buy at an effective 10% or so discount.
The market dictates how long opportunities present themselves. In this case, the developer doesn't need us to sell the units. He would prefer to sell a tranche through us because it's cheaper and simpler. But he doesn't need us.
And this is without any marketing. Basically, buyers are queuing round the block on this one.
So, why has the developer given us a discount at all then?
Simple. He sees our ability to open up a channel to serious and good quality investors, which we can. He wants to build a business relationship with us. For this reason he's provided both a discount AND excellent payment terms - 25% down and 75% on completion. Anything beyond that is not realistic in this market.
So, what's the downside to this deal, if any?
If there's any downside, it's that the market in this case will not allow us to give our investors much time, it won't allow for too much deliberation. Anyone who wants to plug into fantastic growth - certainly on a par with the best we've seen in Poland, I'd say - has to act, and act fast. Apart from that, it's all upside.
Romania Property Property Investment Property Portfolio
My Opinion
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