The Euro and the Eastern European property market
16th September 2005 |

In a nutshell, adoption of the Euro will:

  • Eliminate currency fluctuations
  • Stabilise and (mostly) lower interest rates
  • Impose fiscal stability


However having joined the EU does not qualify any of the Eastern Eight to join the Euro. That will, or may, come later, at the earliest in 2007.

Some populations have often been decidedly reluctant to adopt the Euro, often seeing it as representing a loss of control over their economic affairs and a loss of national identity.

Many of the advantages are political rather than economic, but for a former communist state, membership of the Euro club is an important indicator of arrival on the free market scene along with a clear signal that the country is a member of a stable trading zone.

Certainly, the governments of the Eastern European countries that have recently joined the EU will all almost certainly want to also join the Euro as soon as conditions allow.

Euro membership? - don't bank on it short term.

It is important to recognise that, although the idea is that all countries will join - there is no opt out, as for the UK and Denmark - membership is not certain.

It is not simply a case of when, not if.

This is a key consideration for real estate investors because those countries that are first to adopt the Euro are likely to see the quickest and most dramatic returns on investments.

There is an element of a gamble here as well because any country that fails to meet the conditions necessary for Euro membership is likely to suffer in terms of investment and, as a knock on, in terms of real estate price inflation.

While none of the new member countries have the option of an opt out in theory, it is also the case that they cannot either be forced to join.

Remember that Sweden had no opt out either, but despite this it held a referendum and rejected the Euro.

Anyone trying to anticipate which countries will be first to join the Euro should not expect entry conditions to be necessarily the same as those laid down in EU fiscal policy.

Criteria for Euro membership currently are those conditions laid down for the first 12 members - low inflation and low long-term interest rates, budget deficits that are below 3% of the country's GDP and government debt that is below 60% of a country's GDP.

In addition, candidate countries are supposed to peg their currencies to the Euro for at least two years within the exchange rate mechanism (ERM2), and keep their currencies to within a 15% band of that fixed rate.

But, for some existing members of the Euro club, rules about debt and exchange rates were not rigidly applied. The same loose approach may well re-occur for new members.

Most of the East European Eight have already linked their currencies to the Euro in anticipation of adopting the currency.

But few analysts believe any country will join much before 2007.

Indeed, racing toward Euro membership is not necessarily desirable for all the new member countries.

Many of the countries have big budget deficits well in excess of the required 3% of GDP maximum (most notably in Poland and Hungary), and bringing these down rapidly may well have an undesirable effect on income growth, and therefore spending power.

The European Central Bank has been keen to focus the minds of the candidate countries' governments on fiscal structural reform rather than quick membership of the Euro.

It has also made it clear that it believes it will be vital for the countries to spend the policy minimum of two years within ERM2.

Others believe this rigid application of policy is outdated and not only unnecessary, but dangerous.

Dangerous because a currency crisis could be the outcome.

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