The Pound has moved down – but only slightly – overall against the Euro for the first time in several weeks. Overall, since my last blog Sterling has dropped off by 0.51 percent on the Euro meaning we start this week at a rate of 1.237. This was a small dip from the position at the start of last week when Sterling was on a three and half month high on the Euro – this is clearly still a very good rate for recent times; if you need a Sterling to Euro exchange for a property transfer, the slight wobble, could be a key sign to book the exchange rate in now whilst the going is still good.

The reason that Sterling lost out to the Euro over the past week was partly to do with German GDP figures which came in better than expected. The Bank of England quarterly inflation report also crucially left the way clear for more quantitative easing in the UK addressing weaknesses in the UK economy. There were also signs that the uncertainty around the Greek political situation, as well as the fact that Moody’s downgraded 16 Spanish banks, meant that investors were starting to become much more cautious – choosing the much safer US Dollar, as an alternative to the Euro rather than the Pound.

This all meant that the Pound had a bumpy week against the US Dollar - although overall it rose by a small 0.22 percent after some recovery meaning we are now at a rate of 1.580. Ongoing concerns about the UK’s financial and trading ties with Europe are expected to keep some downwards pressure on the Pound against the US Dollar which may continue to strengthen. The Pound has lost 2.5 percent against the Dollar over the past month. Anyone with property exchanges to make in US Dollars is welcome to give me a call to discuss how they can protect themselves from further movements.

This week sees some very significant events meaning that currency movements may be volatile. Tuesday sees inflation, mortgage, house price and retail data from the UK – all of which are significant economic indicators. Wednesday sees the release of the Bank of England minutes – any further indication in these of more support for more quantitative easing in the UK could further damage the Pound. Lastly, Thursday sees UK GDP figures for the UK which could confirm or contradict the ‘return to recession’ – again very significant for exchange rates going forward.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

Sterling has moved up again on the Euro since last week’s blog. The Pound has inched close to a three and a half year high at times throughout the past week meaning that we start this week at a rate of 1.244 on the Euro as the Pound moved up by 0.79 percent overall on the single currency – something that you might want to take advantage of if you have a Sterling to Euro transfer to book.

The weak Euro is largely due to the aftermath of the French and Greek elections. The political uncertainty in Greece in particular, where it is not clear if a coalition Government can be formed, is calling into question whether austerity measures can be pushed through that are needed to stabilise the Greek economy and limit the damage of its debt to the rest of Europe.

Although this is helping Sterling to really gain on the Euro, it is simultaneously weakening against the US Dollar which is benefiting from all the uncertainty due its status as a ‘safe-haven’. The Pound has fallen by 0.5 percent on the US currency over the past week to a mid-marker rate of 1.607.  The US Dollar also received a push at the end of the week as JP Morgan, one of the biggest US banks, reported a 2 billion Dollar trading loss, making even more investors run to the safety of the Dollar.

Last week’s Bank of England monetary policy decision resulted in UK interest rates being held at 0.5 percent and the quantitative easing total being held at 325 billion pounds.  Although it was widely expected that interest rates would stay on hold, recent GDP figures suggesting that the UK is back in recession, made some predict that quantitative easing would be increased to help stimulate the economy. The decision not to do so, has helped to keep the Pound supported for now.

Currency investors will be in a better position to analyse the UK economy when the Bank of England publishes its quarterly inflation report on Wednesday this week. This may bring some movement to exchange rates as the Bank’s forecasts on growth and inflation are likely to come under close scrutiny – particularly after the recent negative GDP figures.

If you have a currency transfer to make involving Sterling therefore, it may be worth keeping an eye out on movement this week and seeing if the inflation report makes an impact. The current position of the Pound is still precarious also due to the threat of damage to the UK economy because of its close trading links with the Euro-zone. Don’t forget it’s possible to book the present exchange rate for a transfer in the future using a ‘forward contract’ to reduce risk and give you certainty about the exchange rate you will achieve.

As well as the inflation report, key events next week include the UK trade balance figures on Tuesday as well as European GDP figures. Wednesday also sees UK unemployment data which coupled with the inflation report, will give currency investors an insight into the overall health of the UK economy and could bring some movement to the Pound.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

The Pound has now hit a staggering 22 month high on the Euro. We start the week after the bank holiday, with Sterling at a mid-market rate of 1.239 on the Euro as the past week’s elections in Europe drag down confidence that the necessary austerity measures will be implemented to stem the European debt crisis. This is fantastic news for any property investors needing a Sterling to Euro transfer who may want to consider booking transfers in at these rates – some of the strongest we have seen for two years.

The French and Greek elections have not incited confidence that planned austerity measures will be followed through – particularly in Greece where the two main parties failed to secure a majority. This has thrown into doubt the future of the international bailout programme – and allowed Sterling, which has been performing well over recent weeks, to take the single currency even more by storm.

Sterling did not perform as well on the US Dollar over the past week. The Pound dropped by 0.71 percent overall to a mid-market rate of 1.615 against the Dollar – although weak non-farm payroll employment data in the US on Friday helped to prevent Sterling from dropping lower.

Overall, Sterling did well over the past week given that some of the key economic data from the UK was not as good as expected in the areas of manufacturing, construction and services. Although data was weaker than expected in these areas however, the PMI readings were still above 50 – a reading of above 50 indicates growth rather than contraction, indicating that the UK economy is still growing. Compared to European data at this stage therefore, the UK is coming out in a positive light making the Pound the more preferential currency for investors.

The key event to look out for this week is Thursday’s Bank of England monetary policy decision. Although it’s widely expected that interest rates will be kept on hold, policy makers will announce whether there will be an increase to monetary stimulus in the UK. This is not expected, but since the recent UK GDP figures were so disappointing, markets will be keen to have this confirmed on Thursday. An announcement not to introduce more monetary stimulus, could see Sterling push even higher.

This event however, will be set against a backdrop of other significant news on Thursday. This includes the European Central Bank monthly report and the US monthly budget statement which will give further insight into the health of these two economies. There is also trade balance information from the UK and the US. This will indicate how well or not the UK is minimising its trade deficit and could therefore also affect the Pound.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

If you need a strong Pound for any upcoming transfers, you’ll be more than pleased to hear that the Pound is still soaring – now at nearly a two year high on the Euro, as well as the strongest it’s been on the US Dollar for eight months. This means that we start the week with Sterling at a mid-market rate of 1.227 on the Euro and 1.626 on the US Dollar. Don’t forget it’s possible to book exchange rates in advance of your transfer using a forward contract, so please do get in touch with me if you’d like to discuss securing the current rates.

The Pound showed exceptional resilience last week by suffering only a minor blip in strength when GDP figures indicated that the UK has returned to recession. Before the announcement, most economists expected that the Pound would suffer should a negative figure be released. It was announced that GDP had shrunk by 0.2 percent but the Pound managed to only slightly tumble, before regaining strength over the rest of the week.

The ongoing woes in Europe, coupled with the struggling US economy, are aiding the Pound’s current strength. Investors are choosing the Pound as the ‘safe’ currency to store funds in at present over some other major currencies which is helping it to rise. This was particularly true last week when fears increased about Spanish debt as the credit rating of Spain was downgraded and weak unemployment figures came out, spreading anxiety that Spain’s troubles will continue to bear down on the European economy. Similarly, in the US, more negative GDP figures were released increasing speculation that more monetary stimulus will have to come soon, making the US Dollar less attractive to investors.

Whether the Pound can maintain current rates remains to be seen. Economic data is proving to be fairly mixed with UK consumer confidence coming in low last week, but the ongoing optimism from the Bank of England minutes from the previous week dominating the mood around Sterling. It may be that some investors are assuming that the UK GDP figures will be revised upwards - if they are not, the negative GDP figure could start to eat away at the Pound in the longer term. On the other hand, it could be that if Sterling continues to push upwards over the next few weeks, we could find that the Pound has managed to define a new range and that the current rates become more normal going forward.

In the short term, next week sees several events likely to make exchange rates fluctuate. UK PMI data in the manufacturing, construction and service sectors from Wednesday through to Friday, will help confirm whether the UK really is returning to recession, as indicated by the GDP figures, or whether there is marked growth. There is also UK data in the areas of house prices on Wednesday and Thursday as well as lots of European data on Friday in key areas such as retail.

In the first half of the week, anyone looking to make a transfer involving Australian Dollars, should watch out for the Australian interest rate decision on Tuesday and the impact that this has on exchange rates. As ever, feel free to call me to discuss any upcoming transfers and how to deal with currency volatility.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

Special Mid-week report

GDP numbers just released indicate that the UK economy has entered into a technical recession, contracting 0.2% in the first quarter of 2012. The Pound fell against the majors on the back of this release and market expectation appears to indicate this release will weigh heavily on Sterling throughout today’s trading session.

With little solid data released in Europe today the attention is likely to shift to the US as the Federal Reserve (Fed), in its monetary policy decision, is likely to reiterate its intent to keep the benchmark interest rate near zero through 2014. Markets are also keeping an eye on the Fed's economic assessment and Ben Bernanke’s press conference for hints on future policy including the probability of a QE3.

Pound Sterling – UK Markets

The Pound has declined against the majors this morning after data just released revealed that the British economy contracted in the first quarter of 2012. UK GDP declined 0.2% in the first quarter, affirming BoE policymaker, David Miles’s stance of a contraction in the British economy.

Yesterday Sterling slipped against the Euro following a positive response to the Dutch bond auction, despite the recent turmoil in the nation’s political environment. Additionally, encouraging Italian and Spanish bond auctions, coupled with more than expected improvement in French consumer confidence, weighed on the Pound. Meanwhile, the UK public sector borrowing data offered a mixed picture, as the government borrowed £2 billion more than expected in March but managed to meet its full year borrowing target.

Among other economic releases today, CBI’s business optimism barometer is expected to reveal an improvement for April.

US Dollar – US Markets

The US Dollar retreated against the Euro yesterday following a positive response to bond auctions in Europe and an improvement in French consumer confidence for April.

Additionally, worries over the US housing sector strengthened market speculation that the Fed may introduce additional easing measures in the near future. Data indicated that S&P/Case-Shiller home price index fell to the lowest level since October 2002, while new home sales declined sharply for March. Further highlighting the deteriorating landscape, consumer confidence declined for April.

In today’s trading session, the US Dollar has retreated against the Euro while it has edged higher against the Pound. The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) monetary policy meeting and the US Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke’s press conference later today are expected to offer more cues over the stance that the central bank may take during the course of the year. Markets expect the Fed to provide hints on future policy options after Operation Twist expires in June. Additionally, markets are keeping an eye on the Fed’s forecast for key macro indicators and durable goods orders data due later today.

Euro – European Markets

Yesterday, the Euro held on to its initial gains against the US Dollar, tracking robust demand at the Spanish and Italian bond auctions and an improvement in French consumer confidence. The Dutch bond auction was also well received despite the collapse of its government.

In today’s trading session, the Euro has edged higher against the majors ahead of the Dutch proposal on austerity measures set to be sent to the Parliament today for debate this week. Earlier today, the ECB President, Mario Draghi, expressed confidence that the Eurozone economy would benefit from the liquidity injection undertaken by the central bank. In a move to restore confidence, the ECB executive board member, Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo, affirmed that Spain will be able to cover its 2012 financing needs despite rising borrowing costs.

With a light european economic calendar ahead, the Fed's economic assessment and hints to future monetary policy are expected to closely influence risk sentiment today.

Other Currencies – Highlights

The Canadian Dollar has advanced against the US Dollar amid market speculation that higher inflation may prompt the Bank of Canada (BoC) to consider raising its interest rate. Yesterday, the BoC Governor, Mark Carney, reiterated that the central bank might have to increase its benchmark interest rate amid firmer underlying inflation. Markets are expected to closely watch the GDP and manufacturing PMI data scheduled for release next week to predict the current monetary stance of the central bank.

Additionally, easing Eurozone fears following a positive response to European bond auctions strengthened the appeal for high yield currencies.

However, data released yesterday revealed that Canadian retail sales unexpectedly declined for February. This was in contrast to the wholesale sales report released earlier this week which had indicated an unexpected recovery for February.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

The pound has propelled yet further to an impressive twenty month high on a basket of other currencies. This includes a move up by 0.65 percent on the Euro over the past week to a mid-market rate of 1.221. It has also strengthened by a huge 1.75 percent on the US Dollar to a mid-market rate of 1.611.

These are strong highs to start the week before the ‘tell-all’ UK GDP figures on Wednesday reveal how well or not the UK has really done in avoiding recession in the first quarter. The GDP figures could have an impact on exchange rates, so if you want to discuss taking advantage of the current rates for a currency transfer, please get in touch in the first half of a week.

Sterling rose throughout last week, firstly due to a series of smooth Spanish debt auctions. As the UK is seen as vulnerable to the problems in the Euro-zone, the success of the auctions helped to build confidence in Sterling. Investors are continuing to choose the Pound rather than the US Dollar to hold their funds, as in the US, the introduction of more quantitative easing is still seen as a very likely move to be made by the Federal Reserve to help bolster  the US economy. In the UK on the other hand, there was a turn up for the books last week, when the prospect of more monetary easing was dampened after the Bank of England minutes were released. These revealed that one policy member, Adam Posen, is no longer supporting such a move. This meant that UK policy makers voted 8-1 against further stimulus and the Pound found some instant strength.

The icing on the cake at the end of the week for Sterling was some very optimistic UK retail data. Retail sales were revealed as jumping up by a huge 1.8 percent in March – a much bigger rise than the forecast of 0.5 percent. This sharp improvement in retail figures helped Sterling to consolidate its twenty month high before the weekend.

UK GDP figures on Wednesday will be the central event of the week for Sterling. Should the figures indicate a return to recession in any way, Sterling could lose its recent highs. If the figures are strong however, and give even more evidence that no more monetary stimulus will be needed in the UK, Sterling could continue to do well. Feel free to register an enquiry or give me a call if you’d like to discuss any upcoming transfers and get a quote, or if you’d like me to watch the exchange rates on your behalf this week.

Other key events for Sterling will be UK house price data today and consumer confidence on Thursday.  The US interest rate decision on Wednesday could also exert some influence on the position of the US Dollar so keep an eye out if you have any transfers involving Dollars coming up.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

The Pound has accelerated further to reach a nineteen month high on the Euro. At a current mid-market rate of 1.220, this is a great time to make a Sterling to Euro exchange or pre-book in any transfers at this rate using a forward contract.

Spanish debt auctions are playing a key role in currency shifts this week, following on from the role that difficult-to-achieve Spanish budget targets have played in making currency investors nervous about the health of the Euro-zone. The first Spanish debt auction earlier this week, went smoothly. With the UK strongly exposed to problems in the Euro-zone, the success of the first auction helped Sterling to maintain its strong position. This includes a rise to a two week high on the US Dollar to a rate of 1.602 as investors became more keen to buy currencies other than the ‘safe’ US Dollar.

UK data has also been positive this week in helping to fuel the Pound. UK inflation rose to 3.5 percent in March - helping to suggest that the Bank of England will not need to inject more stimulus (quantitative easing) into the economy next month which would be negative for the Pound. There was even more evidence for this on Wednesday when the Bank of England minutes from the last policy meeting revealed that policy members voted 8-1 against further stimulus. Significantly, this meant that one policy member in particular, Adam Posen, had changed his mind since the last meeting making it much more unlikely than more stimulus will be introduced and pushing the Pound even higher.

Sterling’s strong position will be tested today however when Spain holds another auction to try and sell ‘longer-dated’ debt. This is a more difficult auction for Spain than the one held earlier in the week. Should this go well however, Sterling could find even more strength particularly on ‘safe’ currencies such as the US Dollar.

Other events that could have an impact on exchange rates before the end of this week, include events and statements made at the G20 meeting today, as well as European consumer confidence statistics and figures on US home sales. Retail figures from the UK on Friday are expected to be fairly disappointing so bear in mind that this could influence Sterling’s currently robust position. Feel free to give me a call if you’d like me to keep an eye on rates for you this week.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

Sterling has dropped a little over the past seven days, after reaching a thirteen month high on a basket of other currencies at the start of the week. It has moved back down to a mid-market rate of 1.587 on the US Dollar and 1.196 on the Euro. If you need to transfer Sterling to another currency, bear in mind that despite the drop off this week, these are still strong rates looking at the past few months overall so it is not a bad time to book a transfer or an exchange rate in advance – particularly with so much uncertainty about where the Pound is heading.

No sooner had more optimism began to surround the UK economy and push Sterling upwards, than some surprise information in Wednesday’s Bank of England minutes helped to knock the Pound back down. The minutes revealed that two policy makers had voted to extend quantitative easing in the UK, a move which would be likely to weaken Sterling. This overshadowed other events and caused Sterling to begin to tumble – this included the UK budget on Wednesday, which had the potential to be very positive for the Pound as it outlined strong austerity measures, but in the event had diluted impact.

The Pound fell to a one week low against the US Dollar on Thursday, aided by more bad news including the lowest UK retail figures in nine months and a drop in consumer confidence. This all helped to remind markets of the vulnerable economic position of the UK and ensure that there remains a lot of caution in over-investing in the Pound.

The fact that inflation levels also dropped to 3.4 percent, the lowest levels in a year and half, may not help boost the currency. Although this is positive news for the UK economy generally, it makes an interest rate rise much less likely – a state of affairs that is not attractive to currency investors.

There is more UK data this week which may help to shift exchange rates. Two of the most significant events are the house price data release on Monday and UK GDP figures on Wednesday. Feel free to get in touch to discuss your target rate of exchange or how the process for booking a transfer works.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

Yesterday, the keenly awaited UK annual budget was perceived as largely neutral for the Pound, with major highlights being the wide ranging tax reforms, focus on reducing the budget deficit and public debt and an upward revision to the U.K 2012 economic growth forecast. Meanwhile, following yesterday’s dovish BoE’s minutes, data just out indicates that retail sales grew less than expected for February.

Data released this morning revealed lower than expected German, French and Eurozone manufacturing PMI. This comes on the back of dismal Chinese manufacturing data earlier today. All eyes are on jobless claims data in the U.S. which is expected to show that the labour market continues to recover.

Pound Sterling – UK Markets

The Pound has moved higher against the Euro this morning following dismal manufacturing data across the Eurozone. Meanwhile data just out indicates that the annual retail sales grew less than expected by 1.0% for February, compared to a 2.0% rise posted for January.

In the much awaited annual budget yesterday, the Chancellor, George Osborne, proposed wide ranging tax reforms. The Chancellor cut the top rate of income tax, reduced corporate tax and scrapped age-related allowances. The Office for Budget Responsibility indicated that the UK economy may avoid a technical recession and upwardly revised the current year growth forecast. On the fiscal front, Osborne indicated that the budget deficit is falling and is forecast to reach 7.6% next year and has estimated public sector net borrowing to reduce to 1.1% of GDP by 2016-17.

During yesterday’s session, the Pound witnessed marginal pressure against the US Dollar after data revealed a higher than expected public sector net borrowing for February. Adding to Sterling’s woes, the BoE’s March meeting revealed that two Monetary Policy Committee members voted to expand the central bank’s asset purchase program by £25 billion. However, all members voted to retain the benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5%.

US Dollar – US Markets

The U.S. Dollar has strengthened against the majors as fears surrounding the global economy resurfaced. Data released earlier today indicated deterioration in the manufacturing sector activity in Germany, China, France and Eurozone.

Yesterday, the nation’s home sales for February failed to match market estimates. Meanwhile, the Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, cautioned that higher energy prices could affect the nation’s consumer spending and could thereby weaken the US economy.

Markets expect the positive news flows from the job market to continue with the weekly jobless claims due later today expected to remain stable at a four-year low. Markets are also expected to track the house price and leading index data for further clues over the state of the US economy.

Euro – European Markets

The Euro has reversed its initial session gains against the majors and is trading lower after data indicated that German and French manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted for March. Additionally, the contraction in manufacturing activity in the Eurozone also accelerated. This data comes on the back of concerns of a slowdown in the Chinese economy after data released earlier today indicated that Chinese manufacturing PMI slipped to the lowest level since March 2009.

However, earlier in the session, the Euro had registered gains against the majors after the ECB President, Mario Draghi, reportedly opined that the worst of the sovereign debt crisis is over and the situation has stabilised.

On the macro front, the Euro is likely to track the region’s industrial new orders and consumer confidence data scheduled for release later today.

Other Currencies – Highlights

The Kiwi Dollar has declined against the US Dollar following the release of New Zealand’s GDP report which indicated that the nation’s economy grew 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011, slower than the market consensus of a 0.6% rise. This has fueled market speculation that the central bank may keep the key interest rate unchanged in the near future.

The Kiwi Dollar also came under pressure after HSBC manufacturing PMI revealed that the Chinese manufacturing sector contracted for the fifth successive month for March. Moreover, weak manufacturing data across the Eurozone has weighed on risk appetite.

It’s been a good week for the Pound which is up to a mid market rate of just above 1.20 on the Euro and 1.58 on the US Dollar. Property investors needing to convert Sterling into another currency should consider whether they’d like to fix current exchange rates for any upcoming transfers. The UK currency has grown by 1.08 percent on the US Dollar and 0.68 percent on the Euro over the past seven days, as well as hitting a ten week high on a basket of currencies, and an even stronger nine month high on the Japanese Yen.

This position is precarious however - and was largely due to negative data in the US, rather than signs that the UK economy is picking up. US inflation data at the end of the week was particularly weak and helped to give the Pound a boost. This counter-acted some of the weak UK data that was released last week such as unemployment figures released on Wednesday that stayed at a thirteen year high. Fitch Ratings Agency also put the UK’s prized AAA credit rating on negative outlook, meaning that there could be a potential downgrade. All of this is likely to ensure that fiscal policy in the UK remains tight.

Whether this is the case, shall be revealed in the Chancellor’s budget statement on Wednesday. The budget will be the key event of the week with currency investors looking for signs about whether the Bank of England will need to provide further stimulus to the economy by introducing more quantitative easing. It is likely that the Chancellor will keep fiscal policy tight to ensure that Britain does not lose its prized top-grade rating. If it seems that this is the case and that interest rates will be kept on hold for much longer, there is a chance that Sterling could weaken.

Other key events that may affect exchange rates this week include UK house prices on Monday, UK inflation and retail data on Tuesday and the Bank of England minutes on Wednesday morning. With all this coming before the budget, it could be a volatile week ahead. To discuss how any of this may affect any upcoming currency transfers and the value of your property purchase or sale in relation to the foreign exchange, please just get in touch.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

If you need a Sterling to Dollar transfer over the coming months, you may want to think about booking the exchange rate in advance soon as we are currently at the best rates seen for three and a half months.

We start this week with the Pound at a mid-market rate of 1.158 on the US Dollar following a second week of gains. The Pound has found strength over the past seven days to also reclaim some of its recent losses on the Euro, gaining by 1.6 percent to a rate of 1.999. Data released from the UK over the past week helped to paint a brighter picture of the UK economy. There was stronger retail sales data in the first half of the week and then the PMI Manufacturing and Construction readings both came in above 50 at the end of the week. A reading of more than 50 crucially helps to indicate that the UK economy is growing rather than returning to recession so this really helped to boost the Pound.

The PMI Services data for the UK is due on Monday. Should this also be higher than 50, we may well see Sterling nudge up again. If it is lower than 50, this may throw Sterling’s current position into jeopardy ahead of the Bank of England Interest Rate and Quantitative Easing decision on Thursday this week. Although it is unlikely that interest rates will change, there has been a lot of speculation over whether the Bank of England will introduce more Quantitative Easing which is likely to weaken Sterling. The strong Manufacturing and Construction data last week helped to reduce the likelihood that there will be more Quantitative Easing announced on Thursday. The final piece of Services data on Monday therefore, alongside the Bank of England decision on Thursday will be key pieces of data that may affect exchange rates next week. Feel free to give me a call or email me if you would like to discuss whether to book an exchange rate or be kept updated with how currency movements affect you throughout this week.

Sterling is of course also being affected by the ongoing situation in Europe. The Euro fell against many other currencies last week as the European Central Bank injected more cash into the banking system. It also suffered from investor anxiety that Greece won’t be able to meet the requirements of making harsh austerity cuts. It is also the European Central Bank interest rate decision on Thursday, as well as GDP figures on Tuesday so there is plenty next week to affect the Euro’s movement.

If you are looking at investing in property in Australia or New Zealand, there are interest rate decisions coming on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, so make sure that you stay updated with how this affects exchange rates.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

As I suggested may be the case in my last blog, the progression of the Greek bailout deal alongside the release of the Bank of England minutes were the key events to bring about currency movements last week. And they were no small currency movements…with Sterling falling by a huge 2.05 percent on the Euro and dropping to a similar ten week low on a basket of other currencies. Those of you interested in Sterling’s performance against the US Dollar will be relieved to hear however, that the Pound in fact grew by 0.28 percent overall on the US currency.

Starting with Sterling-Euro, we start this week with a much less appealing exchange rate of 1.180. This was largely due to the fact that euro zone finance ministers at last finalised a long awaited second Greek bailout deal. This deal helped the Euro to strengthen over the course of the week, as the fact that the threat of a Greek default next month has now been removed, ensured that risk-appetite increased and investors moved funds over to the Euro. The Pound’s demise against the single currency was also aggravated by the release of the Bank of England policy meeting minutes on Wednesday. These revealed that there had been support for a larger amount of quantitative easing at the last meeting than was decided upon, signalling that there may be more quantitative easing to come in the UK. This may continue to put downwards pressure on Sterling until the next monetary policy decision in March brings about more clarity.

It is a relief therefore, for any of you making US property investments that Sterling did not similarly suffer against the US Dollar. As the US Dollar is such a safe-haven currency, the global risk appetite that the Greek bail-out deal bought about helped Sterling track the Euro’s gains on the US Dollar.

UK GDP data released at the very end of the week did help lift Sterling slightly on all major currencies, by suggesting overall that the UK economy was holding up.

Going forward however, Sterling faces many obstacles in the current climate. Ongoing tough austerity measures in the UK, strong links with the Euro zone, and the likelihood of more Quantitative Easing, are likely to keep the UK close to recession and prevent Sterling from making significant moves upwards. This week in particular brings some key events to look out for which will determine currency movements. Tuesday sees three releases in the area of Consumer, Industrial and Economic confidence for the European Monetary Union as well as Consumer confidence in the US. Wednesday also brings a melting pot of important data with the European inflation figure, UK mortgage approval data and US GDP figures. The European Union economic summit on Thursday and Friday may well also bring about some comments that influence the strength of currencies. If you would like to speak to me about how to achieve the best exchange rate for your property transfer or protect yourself from currency fluctuations this week, please don’t hesitate to get in touch. If you have Euros to convert to Sterling – don’t forget that now is the best rate we have seen in ten weeks.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

Those looking to purchase property in Europe will be disappointed to hear that the Pound has fallen back below the 1.20 level on the Euro to a mid-market exchange rate of 1.190. This occurred as news spread last week that that progress was being made in Greek debt-swap talks and a deal is soon to be struck to help prevent a Greek default, boosting confidence in the single currency. Sterling’s fall of 1.23 percent on the Euro throughout the week was also fuelled by the fact that the UK was revealed as being on the brink of recession when GDP figures revealed that the UK economy contracted by 0.2 percent in the last quarter of 2011 rather than showing any signs of growth.

Against the US Dollar on the other hand, Sterling hit a five week high, achieving a mid-market exchange rate of 1.573 percent. Good news for anyone looking to invest in American property. Again, this movement was largely due to events in the Euro-zone, as an increased flow of funds into the Euro, generally comes from a withdrawing of funds from the US Dollar. The US economy did also suffer its own bad news on Wednesday as the US Federal Reserve announced that it would keep interest rates low until 2014 and introduce more monetary stimulus measures. US GDP figures revealed that the economy grew by 2.8 percent in the last quarter of 2011 – which was lower than the forecasted 3 percent.

What is the long term currency picture going forward? It is likely that events in the Eurozone will continue to dominate the currency markets. Although the Euro was pushed up last week due to news of the Greek deal, its position is very precarious due to uncertainty in other Euro nations. There was news last week that the Spanish unemployment rate hit 22.58% in the fourth quarter of 2011. Portugal also remains a concern, with speculation that the nation may need a second bail-out. If you need a Sterling to Euro transfer though, it really is a case of monitoring the ongoing situation week by week to book your transfer at the best time. It’s possible to discuss a target rate of exchange with me so that I can monitor the markets on your behalf and alert you when we reach your target rate. You can alternatively fix an exchange rate in advance to protect yourself from currency volatility and reduce risks by affording yourself the certainty of knowing the cost of your foreign investment to you in Sterling as the exchange rate is pre-booked.

Movement in the Pound in the short term is likely to also revolve around whether the Bank of England will increase quantitative easing measures to shore up the UK economy. The Bank of England minutes from the last policy meeting released last week revealed that policy members are showing increasing support for such a move which may come in February. If this looks increasingly likely, the Pound may well experience some downwards pressure.

One key way that we will be able to tell whether more quantitative easing is likely is by the PMI figures released from Wednesday onwards this week in the UK. They will reveal how well the UK Construction, Services and Manufacturing sectors are doing and help indicate whether there really is a real risk of the UK returning to recession. Should the PMI figures reveal poor growth, it is much more likely that the Bank of England will look to introduce quantitative easing soon, and therefore likely that the Pound may suffer. UK mortgage data on Tuesday will also be revealing.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

Sterling has now held at above the key 1.20 level against the Euro for three weeks which is good news for those of you needing a Sterling to Euro transfer. Sterling is only just hanging on by the skin of its teeth however, as we start this week with the currency at the 1.203 level on the Euro having fallen by 0.31 percent overall throughout the week.

This is due to the Euro’s minor rally in the second half of the week. After Euro-zone nations were plagued with credit rating downgrades in the first half of the week, there was a change in fortune for the Euro as news became more positive; the European Central Bank took moves to inject more cash in funds designed to prevent the spread of debt and hopes rose that Greece will avoid a default. This kind of news meant that ‘risk-appetite’ increased allowing the Euro to experience some small upwards movement.

This same ‘risk-appetite’ allowed Sterling to experience much more than a small upwards climb on the US Dollar, rising by 1.68 percent over the course of the week to a rate of 1.556. Despite the news that positive economic data came out of the US, such as falling unemployment, the Dollar fared badly because it’s position as a ‘safe haven’ currency was not as important to investors throughout last week as it has been with the Euro and Sterling becoming more attractive choices. This means that the Pound is now at a two week high on the US currency, so anyone needing a Sterling to Dollar transfer soon, should consider the news that we have currently moved up to a better position and there is no telling how long this will last.

The Pound remains precarious as there are still concerns over the fragile UK economy which is itself vulnerable to problems in Europe. It is still thought likely that more monetary stimulus in the form of Quantitative Easing, will be introduced by the Bank of England, as early as February. This is expected to cause Sterling to weaken when it happens and last week’s news that UK inflation fell in December down to 4.2 percent has only strengthened speculation that such a move will come soon. Two events this week will help determine whether more Quantitative Easing is likely – namely UK GDP data and the Bank of England minutes from the last policy meeting which are released on Wednesday. GDP figures are expected to show that the economy shrank in the last quarter of 2011. If the minutes also help to suggest that discussion took place at the last meeting to suggest that Quantitative Easing is on its way soon, the Pound may experience some downwards pressure from Wednesday onwards. As ever, please feel free to give me a call to discuss how currency movements may affect your transfers or for advice on how to fix an exchange rate in advance to protect yourself from the current volatility.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

At last! Sterling has pushed up through the key area of resistance of 1.20 on the Euro to a sixteen month high. I reported in my last two blogs that Sterling was heading towards 1.20 so it’s great news for all of you needing a Sterling to Euro transfer that we’ve gone through this key level. We start the week with Sterling at a midmarket rate of 1.214 on the Euro so if you do have any transfers to make now is a good time to think about whether you want to book them – or fix the current rate for a future transfer.

As ever, Sterling’s position on the Euro comes with a word of warning. Many commentators are still reporting that the current exchange rate is due to the economic woes in Europe rather than any perceived strength in the UK. This is of course also indicated by the fact that again, Sterling has dropped against the US Dollar. This week the drop was by 0.73 percent meaning that the Pound is down to a mid-market rate of 1.541 on the US currency.

The fact that data on ‘non-farm payrolls’, a key indicator of the employment situation in US, improved this week helped the US Dollar. US ‘jobless’ levels were also down to a three and half year low giving fresh hope that the US economy will perform better in 2012. There was some marginally better data from the UK, such as a pick up in the services sector, but this was over-shadowed by falling house prices and poor manufacturing data. If the UK does return to recession, which many are expecting, we would expect there to be downwards pressure on the Pound so it is likely to be a volatile year ahead. The only thing at present that can be predicted as possibly enabling Sterling to pick up against the US Dollar is monetary policy – if the US is seen as being slow to act whereas the Bank of England show strong decisive action, there may be some hope for a turn around in fortune.

What’s on the cards for this week? The Euro may well deteriorate further with Italian and Spanish debt auctions due to take place.  There are more UK house prices due however, which if they follow suit with last week will do the Pound no favours. The UK trade balance on Wednesday, and US and European trade balances on Friday will allow markets to easily compare the health of these three economies so could bring some movement. Most of all, it’s important to watch out for the UK and European interest rate decisions on Thursday. Although no changes to policy are expected in the UK (more quantitative easing has been ear-marked for next month) any surprises or changes from Europe could have a big impact. Feel free to give me a call for a free quote on any kind of bank to bank currency transfer or to discuss how to protect yourself from currency volatility.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

Happy New Year to everyone. 2012 is no doubt going to be an interesting year for currency markets with the global economic situation and ongoing crisis in Europe set to bring more seismic shifts in exchange rates.

In my last blog before Christmas, I reported that Sterling was edging towards 1.20 on the Euro. With light trading over the Christmas and New Year holidays, we start this week with the Pound at a similar level on the Euro – currently at around the midmarket rate of 1.999. As the Euro crisis continues and European leaders continue to try to work together to find a solution, we are likely to see continued downwards pressure on the Euro. As it has been widely reported in the news, its performance has been particularly poor on the Japanese Yen (the ultimate safe haven currency) with the single currency falling by a huge 4.66 percent on the Yen in the last month.

Whilst Sterling has held against the Euro, it has continued to drop off against the US Dollar, dropping off by 0.31 percent over the past week to around a two and a half month low. The US Dollar continues to be favoured even more than the Pound as an alternative for the Euro with a stream of funds going into US Dollars.

The good news for those of you hoping for a strong Pound to start this year is that the Bank of England minutes that came out before Christmas, did at least not knock the Pound as some had feared. There were concerns that any discussion within the minutes of plans for more quantitative easing in the UK could put downwards pressure on Sterling. In the event, the Bank of England minutes did discuss quantitative easing. Although no policy members had voted for more quantitative easing, the minutes revealed growing support for such a move possibly in February. This seemed to be largely shrugged off by markets however with no blips showing in the Pound’s strength. This could of course alter as such a move draws nearer meaning the Pound could stumble lower in the coming months once more quantitative easing is announced. On a more positive note, UK public sector net borrowing figures have come in slightly better than expected meaning that the UK budget situation shows signs of improvement.

The first week of the year starts with UK PMI manufacturing, construction and services data from Tuesday to Thursday which is treated as a key indicator of UK financial health and therefore taken seriously by currency markets. There is also UK mortgage data on Wednesday as well as plenty of European data to end the week on Friday including consumer confidence, economic confidence, retail sales figures and unemployment figures. All of this may bring about movements affecting exchange rates so feel free to give me a call about how this may affect any upcoming transfers or if you would like any currency advice for property investments in to 2012.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

It’s excellent news for anyone needing a Sterling to Euro exchange with the Pound hitting a nine month high on the single currency. Last week, we saw a slight rise from Wednesday onwards as interest rate decisions came out from the UK as well as Europe. The later scrutiny of the European summit helped to rocket the Pound up a mid-market rate of 1.19 on the single currency as investors sought an alternative to the risky Euro. If you have an upcoming Sterling to Euro transfer, now is the time to think about whether you want to fix an exchange rate whilst Sterling is experiencing this momentum.

As expected, interest rates were held once more at 0.5 percent by the Bank of England and no action was taken to further quantitative easing. It was a different story in Europe, where the European Central Bank decided to cut rates by 25 basis points to 1 percent. Although this shows an attempt to help the suffering European economy, markets seemed to take the view that this move was disappointing and not at all drastic enough given the overwhelming debt problems - meaning Sterling started to push up on the single currency.

Events at the European summit then hit the headlines as an attempt to secure changes to the EU treaty failed as the 27 member states did not agree on all the new measures – it has been widely publicised that the UK refused to go along with all of the propositions. These moves did not go as far as markets were hoping to help shore up the European economy. To add insult to injury, Standard and Poor’s rating agency then warned of a possible credit rating downgrade to fifteen of the Eurozone countries and most other ratings agencies announced their plans to review all Eurozone nations in early 2012. Needless to say, the Euro lost strength and the Pound once more took advantage.

This could change however and we could see a downturn in Sterling against the Euro if more agreements about the bailout fund and financial markets come to light (particularly if changes are announced that may be seen to be harmful to the UK financial sector’s health), so it’s very wise to stay up to date with the situation as it progresses.

Unfortunately for those wanting to invest in the US property market, Sterling has moved in the opposite direction against the US Dollar at the start of this week. Again the situation is unpredictable - at the same time as there is a chance that future agreements about action to tackle the Eurozone debt crisis could push Sterling down against the Euro, they may well help Sterling to gain on the ‘safe’ US Dollar as risk appetite increases. Feel free to give me a call if you would like me to watch the exchange rates on your behalf through this turbulent time or discuss how you can protect yourself from fluctuations.

There is also some news for anyone who already owns a property in Hungary and has an outstanding mortgage. You may have heard that due to a new piece of legislation passed by the Hungarian Government, it is now possible to pay off the outstanding mortgage amount at a preferential fixed rate of exchange in Hungarian Forint, providing the funds are available to do so - if you haven’t been contacted about this possibility and would like to find out more, please give me a call to discuss.

In summary, the situation at the moment is that the Pound has surged up on the Euro whilst remaining under pressure on the Dollar. The position against the Euro is certainly still precarious - the fact that more quantitative easing is likely to be introduced at some stage means that there is still a strong air of caution. Next week’s Bank of England minutes could prove damaging for the Pound if they reveal that there is growing support amongst the committee members to introduce more quantitative easing soon.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

This week’s currency round-up may come as a pleasant surprise to those UK based property investors interested in Sterling’s performance. Despite the latest UK inflation figures hitting the headlines last week for all the wrong reasons (now soaring as high as 5.2 percent – far and beyond above the Bank of England’s 2 percent target), Sterling managed to shake off most of the week’s bad news to climb 0.73 percent on the Euro and 0.83 percent on the US Dollar.

It wasn’t just the news of higher inflation that was a bad indicator for the UK economy. The Bank of England also strongly hinted that their recent tactic of introducing more funds into the UK economy by the means of quantitative easing might be reinforced by another round soon – should this happen, then we would expect the Pound to lose more momentum long term.

In spite of these specific UK developments, bigger global developments allowed the Pound to gain over the past seven days as volatility took hold in the run up to the weekend’s European summits. In particular, speculation and confusion over whether France and Germany had come to a new arrangement about the European Financial Stability Fund made markets cautious as they awaited an official line. It has now been revealed that an announcement about a new comprehensive plan for how to deal with European debt will come this Wednesday following European summits at the weekend – this may reinstate some confidence in the Euro so we may see Sterling drop off against the European currency if this is the case.

Sterling is starting the week at a rate of 1.148 against the Euro and 1.595 against the US Dollar. Apart from the big announcement coming from Europe on Wednesday, news affecting the value of Sterling may be UK mortgage data due on Tuesday and UK consumer confidence on Thursday. Those interested in Sterling’s performance against the Dollar should stay up to date with US GDP figures on Thursday that could also have some affect. Interest rate decisions are due next week from Canada on Tuesday, New Zealand on Wednesday and Japan on Thursday – so if you are requiring an exchange to the currencies of any of these nations it’s a good idea to see how whether these announcements cause any movement. Feel free to give me a call if you would like me to keep you updated.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

Sterling starts this week at a rate of 1.555 against the US Dollar and 1.163 against the Euro. These rates are a down-turn on the previous week, but don’t reflect the very lowest points of last week - in particular a fourteen month low on the Dollar at 1.527. The drop in Sterling happened as the Bank of England announced that more monetary stimulus, in the form of a second round of quantitative easing, has been launched in an attempt to re-ignite the stalling UK economy. Although this course of action was predicted, most economists believed that this would not happen until November meaning that the decision taken this month came surprisingly early as well as being larger in scale than expected with the asset purchasing programme now expanding to 275 billion pounds. The move has been taken in reaction to the UK’s slowing growth, spending cuts and lower wage rises.

As quantitative easing involves flooding the market with Pounds, the general expectation is that this will make the Pound even less attractive to investors going forward, and cause even higher inflation as well as longer term weakness in the UK currency. There are however a few reports beginning to emerge which suggest that the move may be interpreted more positively for its ‘decisive’ direction and help re-install confidence in the Bank of England and its attitude in dealing with the risk of returning to recession head on. The next week may start to indicate, depending on which way Sterling moves, how markets are thinking.

The European monetary policy decision which also took place on Thursday helped support the single currency as the European Central Bank held interest rates at 1.5 percent whilst there were a number of predictions for an interest rate reduction. The ongoing movement of the Euro is as uncertain as ever however, as the saga over whether Greece will default on its debts and how this may affect other nations remains rumbling on in the background and as ratings agency Fitch downgraded both Italy and Spain at the end of last week.

Unfortunately for those UK investors wanting to purchase property in the US, the Dollar rose on Sterling as aside from the news about quantitative easing in the UK, there was some stronger data coming from the US. This included better than predicted data on US joblessness, initial unemployment and nonfarm payrolls.

Key events to watch next week that may move the markets are UK manufacturing and industrial figures on Tuesday as well as unemployment figures on Wednesday. The UK trade balance on Thursday will also reveal whether the UK has managed to cut down its large trade deficit and increase exports.  There are also some housing figures due mid-week which come with a health warning for those hoping the Pound will strengthen, as they are expected to paint a bleak picture of the UK property market.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

Following my report on Sterling’s dire position seven days ago, the past week has seen some improvements in the position of the Pound – these should be treated as very precarious however, with the upwards movement against the Euro in particular being something of a red herring.

This is because Sterling’s 1.64 percent rally against the Euro over the past week came predominantly on Friday. It was widely reported that a single large order to exchange Billions worth of Euros into Sterling (relating to the UK’s annual rebate from the European Union agricultural subsidies) took place causing the sudden upwards jump. The bigger picture is that the Euro is likely to find more support over the coming week as Euro zone nations approve an increase in the region’s bail-out funds.

On top of this, this week sees monetary policy decisions coming from both the UK and Europe on Thursday. Whilst interest rates are more than likely to be maintained by both Central Banks, the speculation that the Bank of England will introduce more economic stimulus in the form of Quantitative Easing either this month or next month is likely to put downwards pressure on the Pound in advance of Thursday’s announcement. Most economists are predicting that the move is more likely to come in November, but nervousness is likely to set in before the Bank of England’s announcement later this week, with investors shunning the Pound for other currencies.

The Pound had an up and down week against the US Dollar, climbing overall by 0.84 percent. This means that we start the week at a rate of 1.558. Overall however, Sterling is still heading for its worst monthly performance against the Dollar in a year so this remains a good time to move Dollars back into Sterling or fix the rate for doing so.

For any UK based investors interested in property in New Zealand it’s not all bad news on the Sterling front – the New Zealand Dollar fell last week as after the nation’s sovereign rating was downgraded by credit ratings agency Fitch, due to the large amount of external debt that the nation has.

Key events next week include the European and UK monetary policy decisions on Thursday as well as more meetings regarding the debt and default issues in the Eurozone, including the Ecofin meeting, which could help push the Euro higher if more consensus is announced for supportive measures.

Next week will also reveal more about the state of the economy in the UK with a stream of economic releases which may well have an impact on the Pound – in  particular PMI data Monday to Wednesday in the areas of manufacturing, construction and services typically influence the Pound, especially when coming in lower or higher than forecast.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

Last week was volatile for the currency markets with a host of data coming out as well as various headlines emerging about the possibility of a double dip recession in the UK as well as a deepening crisis in Europe.

The result was that currency investors flocked to the safe haven currencies of the US Dollar and the Yen instead of the higher yielding Sterling and Euro. This meant that despite an up and down week, Sterling practically held against the Euro from the week before overall, moving only by a minimal 0.08 percent. Against the Dollar however, the Pound suffered a terrible drop, falling by a huge 2.13 percent, meaning that we start this week at around a rate of 1.54.

Sterling particularly crashed against the US Dollar from Wednesday onwards as far as a one year low. Other than the news emerging from the global economy, the Bank of England minutes released on Wednesday helped drag down the Pound, as they seemed to confirm speculation that it won’t be long at all before policy members vote for quantitative easing to be used in the UK as the flagging economy becomes ever more precarious. Although the minutes revealed that only one policy member voted for this form of monetary stimulus this month, the notes confirmed that many members thought that this would be a likely remedy needed to help the economy from as soon as next month. As such action would fill the economy with more Pounds, such news makes Sterling unattractive for currency investors, which is adding yet more downwards pressure on the UK currency.

This is alongside more negative data from the UK such as a drop in factory orders and a rise in public borrowing.

Those property investors interested in how Sterling may perform against the Euro, which unlike the Dollar is not a safe haven, should take note of the G20 finance meeting that took place last week. This meeting of the world’s largest economies concluded that there was a mutual commitment to ‘take all actions to preserve the stability of the banking system’ – as the conference had focussed on Europe and the Greek debt crisis this can namely be interpreted as a pledge to contribute funds to ensure the banking system remains stable. This may help support the Euro.

With monetary stimulus now on the agenda in the UK therefore there isn’t likely to be much good news for the Pound in the immediate future, particularly with all the current talk of the risk over a return to a recession. Feel free to talk to me about how you can protect yourself from further currency fluctuations using techniques such as forward contracts and market orders.

If you happen to have property to sell in the US and need to bring Dollar’s back to Sterling we are currently looking at some of the best exchange rates seen in a year.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

Last week was not a happy seven days for the Pound which fell overall by 0.58 percent against the US Dollar and a significant 1.59 percent against the Euro.

There was a particularly gloomy moment for Sterling last week when it touched the lowest levels so far in 2011 against the Dollar. A number of factors have been at play in Sterling’s demise, not least, a lot of talk about quantitative easing – a method of helping to reignite the economy that the Bank of England are thought to be drawing ever closer to. This was intimated by both Bank of England policy maker Martin Weale and referred to by Business Secretary Vince Cable last week.

Sterling was also not helped by the fact that currency investors took flight to the safe haven of the US Dollar in the early part of last week as rumblings over European debt sales and credit ratings caused currency investors to be nervous. The speculation over a possible Greek debt default did also cause the Euro to drop to a six month low on Sterling, but the single European currency then picked up over the rest of the week. This was due to certain progressions helping to calm nerves such as the news that China would buy up Italian bonds.

Most of the data coming from the UK last week did not help to spread much hope that Sterling might pick up. Although retail sales were not quite as poor as expected, the news of rising unemployment, lower wages and rising inflation expectations have not painted a particularly optimistic picture of the UK economy. This is all making the chance of monetary stimulus in the form of quantitative easing even more likely, with most wondering not if but when it will happen. This is likely to make Sterling less attractive to investors going forward and there are likely to be regular jitters when the Bank of England announce their monetary policy decision each month.

UK based property investors should therefore be cautious as the Pound doesn’t currently have much on the horizon in terms of a life line. Although the enormity of problems in the Eurozone could see the Sterling Euro rate improve, it’s equally as important to remember that the UK is also vulnerable to these problems with Europe being a main trading partner as well as there being strong financial links with UK and European banks. Don’t forget that it’s possible to book yourself into a rate of exchange prior to your money transfer to protect yourself from the uncertainty of fluctuations.

Key data and events to look out for this week include the Bank of England minutes on Wednesday which will reveal the voting and discussions that took place at this month’s monetary policy meeting – this could bring quantitative easing event more into the spotlight if discussions about this feature on the minutes. There are also UK house prices and consumer confidence figures on Monday as well as UK public net borrowing on Wednesday.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

Sterling has continued its month of ascent on other major currencies, with the past week seeing a 1.13 percent climb on the Dollar, as well as a small but none the less upwards move, on the Euro, by 0.11 percent. Significant change is afoot in the currency markets following some of the major events of the past two weeks – those interested in how Sterling will fare against the Dollar should be particularly alert to what is happening in the exchange rates as the Dollar becomes increasingly unpopular making it cheap for those in the UK to invest in American property.

The significant climb on the Dollar means that we start this week at the midmarket rate of around the 1.64 mark. The historic decision by Standard and Poor’s two weeks ago to downgrade the US credit rating is continuing to send shudders through the currency markets – whether the US currency will continue to be used as a ‘safe-haven’ currency by investors (one of the major factors that determines its strength) remains to be seen. The Dollar became even more vulnerable when early last week, the Federal Reserve announced that US interest rates would be maintained at the minimal 0 – 0.25 percent level well into 2013. This is another factor which is likely to ensure a weak Dollar going forward.

Ongoing volatility in Europe affecting the stock markets, as well as reports of slower economic growth in Europe last week, allowed Sterling to gain on the single currency. German GDP for the second quarter came in lower than expected just when Europe could have done with some better news from their strongest economy.

The negative news coming from both the US and Europe has steered the Swiss Franc, another of the world’s most popular ‘safe-haven’ currencies, in to a relentless upwards climb as investors become wary of the Dollar – this is despite efforts taken last week by the Swiss National Bank to artificially intervene and weaken the currency. This is not good news for anyone wanting to invest in Switzerland, although if you have Swiss assets to sell on the other hand, now is a brilliant time in terms of exchange rates.

Sterling was therefore in demand last week – and this was despite some poor economic UK news, which managed to seem paltry in comparison to European and US events. The Bank of England minutes revealed that that the two ‘rate hawks’ of the monetary policy committee have joined the other seven members in voting to keep interest rates the same. This, as well as disappointing jobs data, did not affect Sterling’s ability to hit three month highs. Friday will be a significant end to the upcoming week with both US and UK GDP figures for the second quarter of 2011 being confirmed (and any revisions being announced). However, as the last week has taught, the volatility in the global financial markets, may continue to be the dominant factor and hopefully Sterling will maintain its current position. Speak to me with any queries on how to secure the current exchange rates for your transfer.

For further advice on how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

Thankfully for those needing to make Sterling to Euro transfers, the Pound made some modest gains on the single currency throughout last week – this is even despite Europe raising interest rates again on Thursday up to 1.5 percent whilst UK interest rates were held at 0.5 percent once more.

The Pound has gained just over 1 percent on the Euro over the past week which is very good-going, especially given the interest-rate manoeuvres. The actual interest rate is still only kicking off the week at around the fairly uninspiring 1.12 levels but this is still an improvement on the 1.10s of the previous week. Sterling found strength last week from some very surprising PMI manufacturing data which completely stunned currency markets as it was revealed that manufacturing production had shot up for the month of May by 1.8 percent – far above and beyond the market forecast of 1 percent. This is the first really positive piece of economic news to come out of the UK in a while so although it is a good sign of growth in this individual sector, it is really only a single grain of hope and those needing a strong Pound should consider whether they would like to take advantage of the 1 percent increase on the Euro over the past week whilst this manufacturing data still has an influence.

The other factor which helped Sterling and managed to tarnish the news of the European interest rate rise (which would normally lift the Euro more than we saw last week) is that Europe was hit with a credit downgrading on Portugal by Moody’s Ratings Agency. Portugal’s rating was lowered to ‘junk’ status which warns that Moody’s believe the country may need another bail-out. This bad news limited the impact that the European interest rate rise had on raising the single currency last week but it is still important to note that in Trichet’s speech on the same day, he dropped many hints that the European Central Bank will be looking to raise interest rates again soon in the upcoming months. He also commented on the Portuguese issues and downplayed the extent to which these would negatively affect the rest of Europe. Again therefore, although the Pound managed to gain back on the Euro last week, looking to the longer term, there is still a possibility that continuing interest rate rises from Europe will continue to damage the Sterling to Euro exchange rate.

For those making property investments in the US, Sterling’s most recent movements against the Dollar over the past week have been much more tempered with Sterling moving downwards against the US Dollar by 0.36 percent in total. This is partly due to Sterling managing to push upwards on Friday when the US experienced a dire employment report. Looking over the past month as a whole however, is unpleasant viewing, with Sterling having dropped by 2.51 percent on the Dollar in total – quite a significant amount of money therefore on a property value. Economic data from the US however, as Friday’s employment figures showed, is still very patchy and so future movements could easily go one of two ways. The best bet is to get in touch with me to discuss your target rates of exchange so I can alert you if these are achieved, and how to protect yourself from these kinds of currency movements.

For further advice or how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

Volcano’s are not the only eruption to be causing a storm in Europe at the moment. A conglomeration of events appear to be taking place at present with the European Union facing a debt crisis that could bleed through Greece, Spain and Portugal. Also, at a push, Belgium and Italy. Take this and add to it the search for a new leader of the International Monetary Fund and Ash Clouds threatening to shut down European air space and you have a mind boggling series of events threatening to topple the euro.

Pound Sterling

Word has it that the government was meant to be making spending cuts for some reason. This may have something to do with the spiralling levels of debt that our nation is facing. However, with this in mind it appears something has gone wrong along the way. Current spending by the central government hit £54.1 billion last month, a 5 percent hike from this time last year. Furthermore, with the recovery plans predicting a snail-pace like return to normality it is no wonder that the Chinese downgraded UK’s credit rating from AA- to A+.

However, as the general consensus quite rightly stated yesterday, it’s time to move on from old cliché’s. Yes the UK is underperforming, but this may not be reflected in the markets. The bottom line is with the state of the Euro looking far more uncertain sterling is seeing short term gains against the single currency.

Dollar

Whilst the US has problems of its own, in the short term investors see buying potential in the Dollar which could see the currency strengthen slightly. The Dollar index reached a seven week high before reports due to be released tomorrow are expected to show that the economy is recovering at a faster pace and initial jobless claims decreased for the third consecutive week.

On the other hand, global fund managers are keeping long term bets against the US Dollar. Whilst the Dollar is expected to rally from time to time, low interest rates will force investors to seek alternatives to US Bonds.

Euro

The façade surrounding Greece could create a debate that could fill the broadsheets a hundred times over. However, as we speak Greece may be forced to sell up to 50bn euros worth of state owned assets to push forward its privatisation drive. If Greece were to default a complex domino effect would take place. If like many you have been wondering why surrounding nations are so keen to avoid this from happening the answer is simple. A default would hurt major French and German banks with Greek subsidiaries, potentially causing a crash in share prices.

Other Currencies – Highlights

In recent days we have been commenting on the yo-yo nature of the Canadian Dollar. However, reports today show that currency may be faltering as indicators suggest that the global economy may be faltering. The loonie as it is often known has weakened against 12 of its most 16 most-traded counterparts.

The South African Rand broke back against the dollar after two days of losses. Commodities rebounded from the biggest drop in nearly two weeks and Greece’s endorsed budget cuts helped push the Rand into a strong position.

For further advice or how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

In my last two weekly blogs, I had reported that at last the mighty Euro had begun to cave in to the widely discussed pressures of sovereign debt allowing Sterling to gain back some ground - whilst the Dollar had begun to strengthen considerably leaving Sterling behind.

The last week saw a change in tone with Sterling appreciating 0.2 percent on the Dollar and all in all remaining almost flat against the Euro, moving down by only 0.08 percent on the single currency albeit with a few twists and turns along the way. This was largely due to the fact that many fears surrounding the meeting of EU Finance ministers at the start of last week were expelled. Some worried that the arrest of Dominique Strauss-Kahn would lead to meeting delays or conclusions not being reached about the Portuguese bail-out. As soon as the green light was given for the Portuguese bailout however, some pressure was instantly taken off the Euro. There are still ongoing concerns that Greece will have to restructure its debt but the more severe downwards pressure that we have seen on the Euro the previous two weeks seems to have subsided for now.

This is not what those needing to transfer Sterling into Euros for a European property investment will want to hear. Sterling actually had some strong data last week. Apart from better retail sales spurred by the Royal Wedding and warmer weather, the news that inflation had risen in April to as high as 4.5 percent where only 4.1 percent was expected gave some help to the Pound – this is also the sort of data that could provide more ongoing momentum long term as it only adds to the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates. However, the Bank of England minutes on Wednesday from the last policy meeting two weeks ago, revealed that there is still only stagnant support for a rate rise and it will take more votes to make this happen. Once more, the split in voting was three in favour of an interest rate rise against six who voted to maintain the interest rate at 0.5 percent. There was a time when economists were predicting the hike could come as early as May yet support is not growing.

The UK is still however streets ahead of the US where there is an increasing view that monetary policy will be kept loose for some time yet. This was particularly true this week where after two bounteous weeks of growth, the Dollar stalled in its tracks and reached a plateau as a raft of negative economic data swept in to counteract its rally. Poor data came in the form amongst others of a weak New York economic index, housing starts falling by 10.6 percent, industrial production remaining flat where growth was expected and sales of existing homes also unexpectedly fell. It is now thought unlikely that the US will start to raise interest rates this year at all meaning that there is potential for Sterling growth on the Dollar as the months roll on.

Events to look out for this week will be public sector net borrowing in the UK on Tuesday revealing the state of national debt as well as all important GDP figures on Wednesday giving an overview of how well or not the first quarter really went.

For further advice or how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 207 740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

The long weekend in the UK sun has left many feeling positive and consumer spending figures fueled by the Royal Wedding celebrations and a likely boost from tourism are already being optimistically gestimated. Any positive figures will be gladly received after poor UK consumer spending figures were hit by the rising cost of living, coupled with nation wide pay freezes. In stark contrast to the Royal Nuptials, the notable news at the start of this week was the termination by US forces of Al Qaeda leader Bin Laden. The immediate effect was a lift in US equity futures, treasury yields, and the US dollar but this has now been unwound. To discuss how world events can effect your trade please contact your broker.

Pound Sterling – UK Markets

Contrasting data in the UK is leaving a few potholes in the road to economic recovery. Strong manufacturing figures are in contrast to constricted consumer spending. Sterling is currently down on both the Euro and the Dollar trading at 1.1160 and 1.65 accordingly at time of writing. Medium sized manufacturers saw orders grow at the fastest rate in 16 years in the three months prior to April according to the CBI with 23 percent experiencing an increase in export figures aided by a weaker pound.

The positive manufacturing figures are weighing in against poor consumer spending and according to some economists; the average middle income house hold will be 800pounds worse off this year if a pay freeze and increased inflation are taken into account. With little sign of an impending interest rate rise, a large correction in exchange rates is unlikely in the short term so clients looking to sell Sterling should speak to their broker to protect themselves against adverse further volatility.

US Dollar – US Markets

The US recovery looks set to be boosted by its manufacturing sector after 21 consecutive months of growth which has been aided by a weak dollar.

Although the manufacturing sector looks to be gaining strength, construction is following at a less consistent pace with February’s data being revised to show a decline of 2.4percent. Economic growth forecasts have been hindered by high energy prices which have weakened consumer spending causing it to fall to 2.7% from 4% in the previous quarter but the US Dollar is currently up against Sterling.

Euro – European Markets

The German economy has long been reported to be booming and Commerzbank; Germany’s second biggest lender has reported growth of 3.9percent. Whilst the trend for Germany is showing strong recovery, many of its Eurozone cousins are still well and truly left in the shade. European banks are facing concerns that the ongoing sovereign debt issues will face new turmoil in 2013 when many of the bonds issued to raise capital will come to maturity. Greece is attempting to negotiate another extension in its loans to avoid a full scale restructuring of its public debt after the expectation for a default has increased with the deficient currently standing at 10.4% of GDP.

Other Currencies – Highlights

Canadian industrial product prices rose 0.9percent in March, led by a 5.7percent rise in raw materials as world commodity prices soared. The CAD is currently trading at 1.5671 against Sterling.

For further advice or how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 20 7740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

In last week’s currency blog, I commented on how nothing seemed to be able to stop the Euro in its tracks with the currency reaching the highest levels against Sterling in six months despite all sorts of debt issues being reported in the press. Well, there has been nothing like a major shift but the Euro has finally teetered down from its highest points and shown a little more vulnerability.

Those ongoing sovereign debt issues from the struggling Eurozone nations (known as the PIGS – Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) are creeping out of the woodwork. This is happening at a time when the initial excitement over the European interest rate rise which is what has been responsible for keeping the Euro higher has worn off – but only a little. With Ireland’s credit rating being downgraded and rumours circulating that Greek debt needs restructuring the Euro has dropped mildly against the Pound.

This will be of interest to those UK based buying property investments in Europe. It is definitely worth getting in touch with me for a quote on your exchange and to discuss target rates – and we can keep a firm eye on how this situation pans out. All in all, the Euro has still grown by 1.76 percent on the Pound over the course of the last month which equates to a few thousand Pounds on the average price of a property. This is why it’s so important to be aware of what movements are happening and book the transfer in at the best time – a forward contract allows you to do this and know the cost in Sterling even if your completion does not take place for months.

For those of you exchanging money into Dollars and other major currencies – Sterling is still in a better position against the US currency than the Euro although last week‘s less than forecast UK inflation figure has created some weakness which may continue with Sterling. The inflation figure has suggested to markets that the UK interest rate rise may not now arrive until nearer to the Autumn which is causing Sterling to weaken.

What is the key economic event to look out for this week? Wednesday’s Bank of England minutes are not expected to reveal any surprises, but should they show that any more members voted in favour of an interest rate hike this time round, then I would expect Sterling to strengthen.

For further advice or how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 20 7740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

As those of you who have to transfer money over to Europe probably know, the Euro has been having something of a rally over the past month – and nothing seems to be able to stop in its tracks. This is bad news for those of you exchanging Sterling into Euros with the rates at around the worst levels that they have been in five months.

Why the Euro is so strong on first impressions can be difficult to understand. After all, the news is full of reports on the Portuguese bail-out, and the crisis with the Irish banks. Although these debt issues in individual nations may eventually come to a head and pull the euro down, for now, all currency investors have really been concentrating on is the issue of interest rates. Last Thursday saw Europe raise interest rates to 1.25 percent, whilst rates in the UK were held once more at 0.5 percent. This has confirmed the speculation that whereas Europe are tackling inflation head on and trying to provoke growth, the Bank of England are much more cautious about the speed of the recovery in the UK and when an interest rate rise could be withstood.

For those of you exchanging money into Dollars, the picture is much brighter, The US is still seen as lagging much further behind both the UK and Europe with an interest rate hike not seriously on the agenda as of yet and therefore Sterling is in a good position against the Dollar.

What will have an impact on movements this week? Tuesday will be a big day for Sterling with the latest inflation figure coming out. Should this have grown even higher than the 4.4percent figure released last time we could see some Sterling strengthening as this will add pressure to the Bank of England to raise interest rates. There is also potentially damaging data in the mix tomorrow such as retail sales figures (which last month were dire) and the trade balance for the UK so there could be volatility.

For further advice or how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 20 7740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

Over generous, foolish or long term economic stability. Whatever your view, Labour’s parting decision to bear a fractional brunt of any bailout necessary within the EU will cost the UK in the coming months. Currently, the single currency sits in a very precarious situation with Portugal requiring a bailout and many suggesting that the plague may spread through Spain as well. Not that the rates reflect this…

Pound Sterling – UK Markets

As predicted, Sterling saw further positive gains against the US Dollar as reports proved correct that the Producer Price Index rose at a faster pace than last month. However, whilst the ECB decided to raise interest rates, BoE decision makers held rates firm at 0.5% as expected even though concerns continue to grow over the excessive rates of inflation.

On the flip side, UK house prices continued to fall as banks reported weakening demand in the sector. Average house prices in England and Wales declined by 0.1% from February whilst mortgage approvals actually gained by 4.3% last month to the highest levels since May last year. Mixed reviews across the board are set to confuse us all over the coming weeks.

US Dollar – US Markets

Conventional theory suggests that more often than not, should the Euro strengthen, the US Dollar should fall in sequence. With this in mind it has come at no surprise that both the Euro and Sterling have seen further gains against the dwindling currency.

Currently, everyone has their own view on the state of the US Dollar and with other nations appearing to gain momentum in the global economic recovery; your broker may be able to shed some light on the current state of the world’s power nation.

Euro – European Markets

Following the ECB’s decision to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percent up to 1.25 % yesterday, it appeared as though the currency markets had already factored in any possible movements. On the back of this, the ripples of the decision later seeped into the German export markets which climbed a whopping 2.7% in February causing the Euro to strengthen further against both the Dollar and Sterling.

However, with most of us feeling that Euro currently represents a very false representation of the true situation currently facing the continent, ECB President Jean Claude Trichet placed stark warning over the true picture. He placed great emphasis on the debt issues facing several nations and the overall bleeding effect that may eventually occur should Spain follow Portugal by going cap-in-hand to the EU. Spain strongly refuse that they will do so but most feel that this may be just be denial.

Other Currencies – Highlights

Few of our clients may not actually be aware that we are one of the only Foreign Exchange Brokerages in the UK to offer the Brazilian Real as a tradable currency. As an emerging currency, the BRL has seen further gains this week as Finance Minister, Guido Mantega announced long term currency appreciation is a given. The real gained up to 2% against the US Dollar on the back of this to its strongest intraday level since last August.

Following the recent disaster in Japan, both the Australian and New Zealand Dollar continued their recovery as traders added to thoughts that a further interest rate rise is expected over the next 12 months.

For further advice or how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 20 7740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

In my last blog I described that Sterling rates against the US Dollar had been particularly strong with us reaching some of the highest levels in a year. Unfortunately for those exchanging Sterling into Dollars, this has now completely reversed. The Dollar has had a new found rally since last Friday after several policy makers in the US made public comments to suggest that an interest rate rise as well as the withdrawal of stimulus measures there being used to shore up the economy may be made sooner than expected. The US had been seen as seriously lagging behind Europe and the UK in terms of economic recovery whereas this kind of talk suggests that the gap is getting closer. If you need to make a Sterling to Dollar transfer therefore for a property investment this is a time to be very careful in terms of what may happen with exchange rates as the tide is turning. You can speak to me about options we have to help you protect your transfer from this kind of volatility.

There is more bad news for Sterling in rates against the Euro. Despite the fact that the Euro has dropped against many other major currencies due to a plethora of problems emerging in various member states, the currency is, infuriatingly for those who need make a transfer into Euros, still holding very strong against the Pound. Problems with Portuguese debt levels as well as the defeat of Angela Merkel’s party in Germany have bought a cloud of uncertainty over Europe seeing it sliding against currencies such as the Dollar. Against the Pound however, the fact that an interest rate rise is expected in Europe possibly in April, far earlier than a rise is due here, is keeping the Euro stronger.

The Pound is also weak due to the UK’s own internal problems. Dire retail figures came out last week for February which were taken quite seriously by markets. They were so low that they suggested the VAT rise might after all be having a negative effect and also caused the UK’s AAA credit rating as a nation come under potential threat.

All in all, not good news on exchange rates for those needing to make a Sterling transfer into another currency. You can speak to me about how to protect yourself from these kind of drops. If you are selling a property abroad and bringing money back to the UK of course, the exchange rates are very much in your favour.

For further advice or how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 20 7740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

Budget-day in the UK has already seen some significant Sterling movement with the Bank of England minutes this morning causing the Pound to depreciate in value. With no new policy members voting for a rate hike, the minutes did not suggest that an interest rate rise will occur any earlier than already thought. This has sapped some of the gains made by the Pound yesterday on the back of the soaring inflation figure at 4.4 percent. The UK budget this afternoon will be watched by currency markets in order for them to interpret how well the economic recovery is likely to continue.

Pound Sterling – UK Markets

Following a surge in Sterling yesterday bought about by the soaring inflation levels up to 4.4.percent, the Bank of England minutes have arrived this morning to dampen Sterling and send it lower as they revealed that there have been no further members voting for a rate hike. The minutes last month helped Sterling gain as they revealed an extra member had joined the rate hawks in voting for a rise - but this month there were no new additions and the same three members voted for a rise. The timing for the predicted 0.25 rise was also termed as likely to occur in ‘the middle of the year’ whereas last month the minutes had been a little more promising suggesting the hike would come in ‘early summer’.

The fact that most members are waiting for more sustained growth figures has not helped the currency as we also encounter the UK budget today.

US Dollar – US Markets

The Dollar has been gaining back on the Pound so far this morning following the UK Bank of England minutes but dropping against the Euro although the movement has been volatile. With so much focus on European and UK interest rates, as well as debt issues in Europe and the UK budget this afternoon the Dollar is really responding to broader themes meaning that new home sales data this afternoon is likely to be overlooked.

Euro – European Markets

The Euro has come under pressure as both Ireland and Portugal have moved back into the spotlight for struggling to pay off their debt. A vote on austerity measures in Portugal today is making the Euro particularly vulnerable on speculation that the measures will not be passed which may then subsequently incite a resignation from the Portuguese Prime Minister. Whilst the possibility that European interest rates could rise as early as next month has been fuelling the Euro, lingering issues over debt are coming back to the fore. As well as the situation in Portugal, rumours are circulating that Allied Irish Banks are planning to miss a coupon payment struggling to have enough funds.

Other Currencies – Highlights

The Swiss Franc has risen alongside the Yen as a safe-haven with ongoing uncertainty about radiation in Japan leaking from a damaged nuclear plant.

The safe haven currencies are also strengthening in response to the alliance-led planned attacks on Libyan ground forces.

This is the best time in over a year to make a Sterling transfer into US Dollars following a significant drop in the dollar matched by a surge in Sterling on the back of staggeringly high inflation figures released in the UK this morning. If you have a Sterling to Dollar transfer in the future, it is a good time to check in with your broker now and find out about fixing rates of exchange with a forward contract to make sure that you don’t miss out. This morning’s inflation figure up at 4.4 percent will add renewed pressure to the Bank of England to raise interest rates.

Pound Sterling – UK Markets

Sterling has seen a surge overnight and this morning as CPI data revealed that inflation had grown to a staggering high of 4.4 percent. The Pound in particular is at its strongest levels against the Dollar since early 2010.

The inflation figure at 4.4 percent is over twice the Bank of England target of 2 percent and also higher than the official forecast of 4.2 percent. It also demonstrates another move upwards from last month’s figure of 4 percent. The soaring figure will suggest to markets that an interest rate rise may be forced from the Bank of England in early summer and has helped flout thoughts that this would be pushed back later into 2011.

This morning’s retail price index also came in showing above forecast growth for February with monthly growth at 1 percent.

Apart from the budget tomorrow, the Bank of England minutes released at 9.30am will be crucial for Sterling. Last month, the minutes revealed that three members voted for a rate hike. Should another member have joined the vote for a rate rise this time around, we could see some more Sterling upwards momentum.

US Dollar – US Markets

The Dollar Index, which measures the Dollar against its other major currency counterparts, has fallen to a fifteen month low. The Euro has reached four and a half month highs on the US currency whilst Sterling has reached its highest levels since January 2010.

This broad downwards pressure on the Dollar has suggested to some analysts that the its safe-haven status has all but vanished of late. A slump in US existing home sales which are at the lowest level in 9 years and the fact that there are no immediate expectations for an interest rate rise in the US in comparison to Europe where a rise is expected as soon as next month, and the UK where a rise is expected in the summer are adding further pressure.

Later today sees a speech by Geithner, Secretary of the US Department of Treasury on how he observes the current US economy.

Euro – European Markets

The Euro has soared against the US Dollar as expectations rise that the European interest rate hike will come next month following comments from ECB board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell and council member Yves Mersch that strong vigilance was necessary to keep down inflation. There have also been comments to suggest that economic uncertainty due to events in Japan, will not, as some have expected, push back when Europe might make a rate rise. ECB Governing Council member Guy Quaden is due to speak in Brussels today.

Tomorrow sees industrial new orders data from Europe in the morning followed by consumer confidence figures in the afternoon.

Other Currencies – Highlights

The Canadian Dollar surged against the US Dollar by the most in almost seven weeks as crude oil prices continue to rise as turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East continues. As well as the rising oil prices, the Canadian Dollar is also benefiting from the return to riskier currencies as the nuclear crisis in Japan is coming further under control.

In last week’s blog, I reported that the time was ripe for booking Sterling to US Dollar transfers, with rates moving up towards 1.63. We are still in a relatively strong position against the US Dollar so anyone UK based buying property or sending funds to the US has not yet missed out.

Sterling rates against the Euro on the other hand, have swung down with the Pound at some of the lowest rates for five weeks against the single currency so this is a key time for those purchasing property in Europe to use me at Currency Solutions to help them keep an eye on the rates.

As has been widely reported in the press, rates between the Pound and the Euro are being largely driven by discussions over interest rates at present. Last week saw Trichet speak on behalf of the European Central Bank after the interest rate meeting – although interest rates were held at 1 percent as was expected, it was Trichet’s comments that sent the Euro higher. Whereas until last week, there was an expectation that a rate rise in the UK would come before a rate rise in Europe, the tables are now turning as Trichet suggested an interest rate rise in Europe might come as soon as next month.

The currency markets are never simple however and there are a multitude of other factors at play to be aware of in the Sterling Euro relationship. Whilst the hype over interest rates may continue to maintain the Euro’s strength in the near term, the sovereign debt problems with several Euro nations are still lurking in the background. Just this morning, the Euro was slightly shaken as news emerged that Moody’s Investors were downgrading Greek Government debt. With nations such as Greece trying to re-negotiate the terms of their debt with the European Central Bank, it’s important to remember that fiscal policy and debt tends to return time after time to haunt Europe – and indeed the Euro. The hype over an interest rate rise in Europe therefore may only compensate for some of the serious underlying problems in patches in the long term. The rate against Sterling will also depend on whether the UK interest rate hike – currently ear marked for early summer – is moved any further forward pending discussion at this Thursday’s rate meeting and the next set of Bank of England minutes in two week’s time.

Anyone who needs a Sterling transfer to Euros is best advised to speak to me at Currency Solutions to discuss target rates and protecting yourself from volatility. If you have Euros to bring back into Sterling, then now is a great time to book the transfer and take advantage of the rates.

For further advice or how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 20 7740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

As has become the norm recently, Sterling has been having a volatile time.

No sooner did poor GDP figures at the end of last week send the currency lower, than positive mortgage approvals figures so far this week caused the currency to accelerate against other major currencies – in particular the rate against the US Dollar has become particularly attractive, with Sterling hitting the 1.63 interbank rate against the US Dollar so far this week.

This is also due to the US economy being put under a microscope this week and compared to other global economies as the Governor of the Federal Reserve spends the week testifying and giving press conferences on the official outlook for growth. Unfortunately for the Dollar, the US is being seen as lagging behind other global economies. In particular, higher levels of inflation and price pressures are really putting on pressure for an interest rate rise in the UK and Europe whereas the US does not yet seem to be anywhere near as likely to make any sort of rate rise.

Closer to home for the US, the Canadian economy is also comparatively pushing ahead. The Canadian Dollar has inordinately strengthened in response to surging exports and a well above forecast level of GDP.

In Europe, markets are waiting for the interest rate decision this Thursday. Whilst it is more than widely expected that rates will be held this time round, many officials from the Central Bank have publically spoken about the need to seriously start considering raising interest rates. The interest rate ‘race’ between Europe and the UK is one of the factors bringing so much volatility between the UK and European currencies of late.

The final factor still casting influence is tensions in the Middle East. Whilst the initial affect of these tensions was to cause a flight to safety sending the Dollar higher, the main effect on currency is now stemming from the surge the tensions have caused in oil prices – with soaring oil prices now sending the Euro higher and knocking the US Dollar.

For further advice or how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 20 7740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

Just in case you hadn’t noticed the financial press is becoming increasingly obsessed with interest rates – not just in the UK but in Europe as well – and this is one of the key factors influencing exchange rates this week. The other major factor is the effect of political tensions in the Middle East.

This Wednesday saw the Bank of England minutes released that arrive every month, two weeks after the policy meeting, to reveal how voting was split on interest rate decisions. Sterling crept up at 9.30am this morning by about 0.4 percent on most other major currencies in the first half an hour as the minutes revealed that joining the two voters for a rate rise from last month was another member. With three now voting for an interest rate rise, there is ever-increasing speculation that an interest rate rise will come earlier and earlier. When the interest rate rise does occur, we would expect to see this lift Sterling. Most pointers are now indicating to ‘early summer’ – which is the fairly vague time that was mentioned in this morning’s minutes.

As mentioned however, the interest rate hype is kicking off in Europe as well, meaning that the Euro has also been faring quite well this week as officials from the European Central Bank give comments suggesting that they are beginning to see a rate hike as more likely. News from the wider Euro zone has also been positive with activity in the factory industry growing at its fastest rate since June 2000, reaching 59 in the index and PMI reaching a four and half year high at 58.4.

There is something acting against the Euro this week however which has tempered gains. That is the effect of tensions in Libya causing currency investors to become more cautious and return to their ‘safe-haven’ flows. For this reason, the US Dollar became stronger towards the start of this week and this may continue depending on how the political situation there pans out.

For further advice or how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 20 7740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

We are starting the week with the Pound in a weaker position against the Euro, having fallen to 1.17 from 1.18 at the start of last week. Many clients have been surprised that this is the case as overall sentiment about Europe and the future of the Euro is fairly negative with the latest problems being the issues of the break-up of the coalition majority in Ireland over the weekend as the Green Party removed their support.

Currency markets however really do work on a day by day (even minute by minute) basis using the economic calendar of data releases to really steer where investor’s funds are moved to, and subsequently which currencies strengthen. In economic terms, last week saw more successful bond auctions in the Euro-zone shoring up confidence about the ability of cash-strapped nations to raise funds and there have been other positive announcements such as increasing business confidence in France and Germany.

The Irish situation could of course create downwards pressure for the Euro should it emerge that there will be a definite problem with the implementation of the European bailout package being dependent on an overall Government majority to pass all the required measures.

Other than this, it will predominantly be the Pound and the US Dollar in the spotlight this week. Tuesday sees UK GDP figures which tend to be quite significant in terms of Sterling coming in for the fourth quarter of 2010. There are some concerns that GDP could edge lower than official forecasts due to the impact of the winter weather which could be detrimental for the Pound on Tuesday. We also have the Bank of England minutes from the latest monetary policy committee meeting on Wednesday which markets will analyse in detail as to any clues about when the rise in interest rates might be.

In the US, GDP figures are also due, but on Friday. Some economists have given predictions that it could be a good week for the Dollar with consumer confidence, consumer spending and GDP expected to show growth. The next interest rate decision is also due from the Federal Reserve but with rates expected to stay the same the build up of data throughout the week may be what is significant in terms of rate movements.

For further advice or how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 20 7740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

For anyone UK-based buying property in Europe, a change has occurred in the cost price to the property of around 4 percent over the past two weeks, purely through the Sterling to Euro exchange rates. Over the past two weeks, the Pound has moved up from the 1.16 levels against the Euro, first reaching the 1.20s and then faltering again at the end of last week to find itself at around the mid 1.19s at the start of this week.

As many property buyers see 1.20 as the key resistance level, ideally hoping that they can achieve a rate of 1.21 or 1.22 for a Pound-Euro transfer, it is a good idea that they speak with me at Currency Solutions early. This way, I can make you aware when Sterling pushes through this barrier and discuss the options available to you about fixing into this rate – even if the actual exchange doesn’t need to happen for several months. Some clients like to put an actual ‘market order’ in place where funds can be automatically exchanged at the target rate. Others prefer a more flexible approach and to be regularly in touch with me to monitor the exchange rates as they develop.

What has caused these fluctuations against the Euro? The most recent moves have been largely due to events in the Euro zone. Amidst rumours that Portugal will be the next nation to require an EU bailout package after Ireland, bond auctions held by Portugal, Spain and Italy were surprisingly successful last week. These events helped to shore up confidence about the state of Europe’s economic recovery which is why we have seen Sterling move slightly lower against the single currency. Saying that however, this week could shake things up and certainly so far today has seen the Pound gaining back ground on the Euro. Several meetings this week could bring more movement to the Euro rates including finance meetings taking place concerning whether or not nations can agree on whether to increase the size of the bail out funds as well as the vote of confidence on the Irish Prime Minister tomorrow. It is not impossible that Sterling could make it back up above 1.20 if the outcomes of these should be negative or fuel uncertainty in Europe.

The Pound has been gaining strength against the US Dollar and is starting the week at around the 1.59 levels. The Dollar has shown some weakness in the face of Euro strengthening and comments from rating agency Standard and Poor’s that the US credit rating could be at risk has also created some downwards pressure. With both the UK and the US facing a week of mixed data, both the Pound and the Dollar could experience volatility.

For further advice or how to save thousands on your property purchase compared to the bank, protect yourself from currency movements or set up regular mortgage transfers, get in touch with the dedicated Property Secrets currency specialist: Nigel Hodges of Currency Solutions on +44 (0) 20 7740 0000 or by clicking HERE to leave an enquiry.

MPC member David Blanchflower reiterated the impending possibilities of QE extension, saying that the Bank of England could pull out as much as GBP250 billion from the current GBP175 billion.

Despite the gloom, the pound surprised everyone rallying against all major currencies bar the yen. Sterling maintained a five-day winning streak against the euro and kept cable at 1.64 against the US dollar on Thursday. Friday saw the charge continue, as UK currency hit a six-week high against the euro at GBP/EUR1.115, helped along by the highest UK mortgage data the UK has seen in 18 months. UK residential investment also jumped 23% midweek, contributing to GDP for the first time since 2005.

A successful week for sterling suggested that the worst could be behind the UK economy, however some forecasts suggest GBP could again have a tough week. All will be revealed after the BoE meeting on Thursday, with a decision on QE expected to be announced around midday.

The real drivers for both UK consumer spending and residential investment were actually the hefty government stimulus packages from across the pond, totaling some USD1.7 trillion, the Cash for Clunkers initiative certainly played its part. In the US last week, figures showed that business inventories declined at a slower pace this quarter falling by USD131 billion compared to 160 billion in the last quarter. In another report, weekly jobless claims fell by a modest 1,000 last week to 530,000, which, although heartening, didn’t promise much for the Non Farm Payrolls data due this week.

Markets were illuminated by all the encouraging US data and equity and commodity prices responded well as risk aversion abated. Yet none of this was of any benefit to the dollar which was, as a result, sold widely.

Monday had seen US currency drop to a 14-month low against the euro, following a Chinese report which said Beijing should increase its holdings of euros and yen in its foreign reserves. The following day saw the dollar hit its highest in a month against Japanese currency, touching 92.33 yen and by Wednesday weak US data and volatilities in the equity market paved the way for a flight to the greenback which kept getting stronger. This all came about due to fears that an economic recovery would take longer than previously expected, pulling investors away from the higher yielding currencies and boosting the dollar in the markets. The greenback’s climb gently eased towards the end of the week as investors waited on announcements of more US data. 

The euro began the week trading past USD1.50 for the first time in 14 months after a Chinese report prompted investors to sell the dollar for the single currency. However, later on Monday the European currency experienced its steepest fall since early August, dropping nearly 1%. Meanwhile, the dollar index posted its best daily gain since September as investors unwound short dollar positions after a sudden fall in stocks and commodities. Thursday brought more misery on the single currency as it entered a fourth straight day of losses against sterling to trade at EUR/GBP 0.89.
 

There were various movements in other parts of the world on Friday as the yen strengthened following the year's biggest first-day launch for a single series of Japanese mutual bonds. Both the Australian and New Zealand dollar fell against the yen and were also weaker against the US dollar trading at AUD0.914 and NZD0.729 respectively.

On the same day Canada’s dollar emerged from a three-week low against its US counterpart, strengthening 1.3% to CAD1.067. This week all eyes will be on the Bank of England meeting, which will surely see a wave of activity depending on what is decided with regard to QE.

Nigel Hodges (Currency Solutions).

Like the nations MPs, currency rates for the pound remained under pressure this week, as the expenses scandal continues to haunt UK politicians. You know things are bad when you have to pay for your own gardening and the pound fails to crack 1.08 against the euro. Yet positive signs from the labour market may have revived some faith in the pound, and we may see the UK enter the recovery phase soon.

In the UK last week, the lowest inflation rate in 5 years put sterling under pressure, although Bank of England MPC member Charles Bean revived some confidence by talking about an end to quantitative easing. The pound received a boost late in the week as jobless claims rose by 21,000 which was less than markets were expecting and the unemployment rate held at 7.9%. This is largely due to a lower rate of redundancies and average earnings figures were unchanged from last year.

This news sent the pound to a 3-week high against the US dollar, rallying above the 1.60 resistance level to touch on 1.61. Economists are predicting the UK economy could be close to a turning point, however at present, the underlying trend in sterling remains bearish. This week brings government borrowing figures and the latest MPC minutes.

Exchange rates for the greenback are also on the back foot, after minutes from the MPC meeting showed that US interest rates are likely to remain low for some time. This sent the US dollar to a 14-month low against the euro and 15-month lows against the New Zealand and Canadian currencies. Near-zero interest rates are making the dollar an attractive proposition for carry trades at present. Consumer price index figures and jobless claims are expected to be positive for September, which could induce some volatility later in the week.

The euro has continued to benefit from a rise in risk appetite, reaching a 14-month high against the US dollar to trade just below 1.50 after the Fed indicated interest rates would remain low. German ZEW economic expectations came in slightly weaker than expected, surprising markets after positive manufacturing data earlier in the week. The German economy is expected to grow by 1.2% next year after shrinking 5% in 2009.

Elsewhere, emerging markets stocks have posted their longest rally in four years on the back of rising oil prices and improved figures from China. Japan voted to keep interest rates on hold and the Australian dollar remains buoyant, trading at its highest level in around 25 years against the pound. Australian interest rates are the highest of the G10 nations at present and strong demand from Asian markets is driving the economy forward.

While the picture remains glum in the UK, with high government debt and interest rates expected to stay low throughout 2010, jobless figures this week show that the pace of decline is moderating. At present the weak pound is supporting the UK export sector and the Bank of England may look to reign in quantitative easing levels in the first half of 2010.

Because currency exchange rates change every second, timing your trade to get the best exchange rate can be difficult. Currency Solutions can help you make the most of your currency transfer by providing expert market information and bank-beating exchange rates. Our personal currency brokers watch the markets on your behalf and help you get the best exchange rates for currency transfer. Visit us online at www.currencysolutions.com or phone 0207 740 0000 to see how much you can save.

Have a good week!

Nigel Hodges (Currency Solutions).