Growing at some 2,000 residents every day without any broadly led housing policy in place – the pressures facing Africa’s fastest growing city are much cause for concern.  It has even got to a stage where new arrivals to the metropolitan region of Lagos are reportedly having difficulty in finding slum accommodation – resorting to live under bridges or other public areas until more “permanent” shelter options become available.

The patterns in Lagos are an increasingly common indictment of the realities facing fast growing urban base of the pyramid populations, particularly in Africa, Asia and Latin America where the management of urban sprawl barely exists and speculation accentuates massively disparate housing provision.  The result of the major inflationary pressures on land, building materials and other inputs – in addition to a clear lack of focused impetus to develop dignified facilities for the demographic – further produces chaotic landscapes that are ignoring the fundamental necessities of the majority more than ever before.  Professor Etannibi Alemika, director of research at the CLEEN Foundation – speaking at a recent housing and critical infrastructure workshop in line with the “Vision 20:2020 initiative” – illustrated that in Lagos and other large cities of Nigeria: “well- serviced areas are being carved out and developed for the elite, no attention is being paid to the need for housing for the middle and low income earners.”

The research demonstrated in the info-graphic below exemplifies the comments made by Alemika:

The following steps were undertaken to produce this map:

(i) Applying an assumption based on a statement made by Sina Odunuga, head of public relations unit at the State Ministry of Housing that the Lagos Home Ownership and Mortgage Scheme (HOMS) will enable low income housing to be accessed with a 30 percent down payment requirement followed by an annual interest rate of 6 percent.

(ii) Examining local base of the pyramid wage levels was quite a challenge due to the widespread informal economic circumstances.  Our local assistant nevertheless was able to find some indications of the following positions (via local newspaper ads and speaking to people directly in Lagos): administrative assistant, receptionist, driver, cleaner, canteen worker, store clerk, security guard, stock taker, driver, kitchen hand, labourer, store keeper, food preparer, sandwich maker, wiring assistant, masonry assistant, valet parking assistant, motorcycle repairer, warehouse worker, machinery operator, restaurant worker, concierge, electrician, food processor and waiter.  This produced an average monthly earnings level of NGN 16,277 (NGN = Nigerian Nairas) and – using an assumption of 2 working adults – the household income was hypothesised at being NGN 32,554 (it would be fair to assume that the positions analysed are low-middle class roles);

(iii) Using a 33 percent share of household income being used for accommodation expenses (an industry standard as recommended by the International Labour Organisation) at NGN 10,742, due to no exact calculation figures of the impending HOMS initiative being available we used the United Bank for Africa (UBA) mortgage simulator (the largest bank in Nigeria) to get an understanding of the type of commitment that would be required. A monthly mortgage payment of NGN 10,072 (6 percent annually over 30 years) calculates as being tied to a home value of NGN 3,120,000 (a 30 percent down payment of NGN 720,000 and 70 percent loan of 2,400,000).  Note, however, that it is highly unlikely that UBA would lend to this demographic – nor would the 30 percent deposit be affordable;

(iv) We then searched for housing units using the following sites: Nigeria Property Centre, Kerawa (Real Estate), Real Estate Nigeria, Prestige Real Estate, Property Search – Nigerian Bulletin, Good Life, Property & Estate and some local blogs as well as contacting some estate agencies in the region. We have also highlighted the major slums, the central business district and transport / infrastructure facilities (current and impending).

As with similar examinations of developing cities undertaken by Habitation for the Planet, the results of this broadly led investigation demonstrated that the majority of housing units found were located in the peripheral regions.  However, it was a struggle to find cohesive data that fitted into our profile of a Lagos base of the pyramid household and the informally speculative nature of the marketplace also became more apparent as we went along – for example, there were no pictures of the majority of housing units indicated by the red dots and several units were stated as being “incomplete”.  Indeed, even if these units were of a saleable standard to a base of the pyramid family, at the current time, their distant location to major transport routes would certainly put their appeal and purchase feasibility in doubt.  In addition, it is highly likely to be the case that our salary figures are over-estimated – for instance, a slum household living in one of the central regions would almost certainly not be earning the wages stated above and more likely to form part of the informal economy where income levels are lower (it is also questionable as to whether there would be two full time working adults per household).  Given the generous data collection methodology used in this research and the fact that our analyses of the cheapest apartments close to the central business district were at a minimum of NGN 10 million (over three times our broad definition of an affordable housing unit), it is arguably conclusive that slums are the predominant source of housing for the BoP in Lagos and look set to remain so unless radical steps are undertaken.

So where now? Perhaps firstly there is a need for the authorities to pay real attention to the core issues facing the sustainable growth of a city which arguably has one of the greatest economic potentials in Africa and indeed the planet.  The home truths about much of Lagos slum conditions are shocking: with several major communities being located close to the Lagos Lagoon, flooding is a common problem during rainy season as a result of poor drainage and clogged culvert systems.  In March 2012 as the Makoko slum was hit heavy rainfall, Community Development Association Chair Rigobert Mensu commented to local media: “In my 47 years of living in this area, I have never seen a storm that is this destructive to our people’s livelihood.”  Whilst Governor Babatunde Fashola has promised infrastructure reform including sea defence walls and dredges, environmentalists see very little progress with even rudimentary measures (such as temporary sand banking, trenching and toilet installations) rarely being undertaken in preparation.

Fashola and other prominent spokespeople continue to vehemently condemn the critical reports by the western media stating that “stereotyped” and “condescending” images are being falsely painted about the city.  There have been some improvements worthy of mention such as the urbanisation initiative in the Badia slum region managed by the Lagos Metropolitan Development and Governance Project (a World Bank intervention agency) – incorporating the installation of a health care centre, roads, drainage, bore holes, electrical transformers and a school.  From a wider perspective, the train lines (Eko Blue and Red), the Lekki-Ikoyi Cable Bridge and the Lagos Badagry Expressway  being installed throughout the region (demonstrated in the map above) are collectively hoped to improve urban mobility and free up more accessible land space for housing.

Nevertheless, with 14.45 million of the 17 million population residing in rented accommodation and an very low leveraged housing credit system, there is a clear need for a wider ethos of owner occupancy to be introduced at significant scale – particularly for the lower-middle income groups (where pent up demand is massive).  The mortgage approval system remains slow and cumbersome (reportedly taking up to a year) and underwriting procedures are difficult to establish due to the very haphazard nature of the market itself.

Rents are high – even for the ambiguously defined middle class demographic – and, amongst what is now well-recognised as a predominantly seller’s market, payments are known to be paid at up to two years in advance.  Within the slums, with very little rent control and regulation, according to research by Nigeria’s “Business Day” news site, a black market sees charges of between NGN 800 (US$ 5.09) and NGN 1,000 (US$ 6.36) for shacks (known as the kpako) and up to double this amount for poorly constructed brick buildings in environments where sanitation is scarce and bouts of malaria, cholera and other communicable diseases form part of everyday life.  Such living conditions come in sharp contrast with projects such as the “Lekki Beach Resort Estate”: an impending 75 acre luxury development project currently under construction close to the Lagos lagoon and the 55 hectare “Lakowe Lakes Golf and Country Estate” – also under construction outside the city (both are highlighted in the map above).

The public-private partnerships – which have a primary goal of the government providing discounted land for low income housing construction – still fail to have the necessary vision.  Whilst governor Fashola has insisted that his proposals to clear slum areas will be backed by alternative affordable housing schemes, the actual projects being mounted are clearly financially inaccessible to the demographic with those that do buy largely being middle classes and above or small-scaled investment buyers who are well known to rent the units at unjustifiably elevated rates.  It has also been pointed out that, in the majority of cases, with many central slum residents relying on local industry (such as fishing) for their income, proposed suggestions of peripheral relocation are likely to be met with much reluctance.

Download the full fez ta pronto 2012 PDF report and ask any of your questions to Ruban Selvanayagam on the global affordable housing project by clicking here