Alistair Darling quite literally upset the apple cart last week by raising taxes for cider drinkers, sending droves of anxious park-loitering teenagers into a confused frenzy. He also decided to show mercy on first time homeowners whilst Londoners with property worth anything upward of a million were squeezed ruthlessly.
So another anticlimactic budget passed by as political foreplay got in the way of what would otherwise have been an event of equal predictability, just far less tiresome. Whilst on the topic of fatigue, the Euro has been on the wrong end of the treadmill for far too long now, so EU leaders have decided to give it a breather by agreeing on an aid program for Greece in conjunction with the International Monetary Fund. The bailout itself could include about £19.8bn, with two-thirds from Euro-Zone countries and a third from the IMF.
The situation is hard to gauge at the moment, Greece have managed to sell bonds to Germany today in an attempt to raise funds and some experts seem to think the ‘non-bailout’ bailout won't solve much in the long term unless the core issues are addressed. However, the agreement lifted the single currency out of its 10 month rut of weeping behind closed curtains, eating chocolate-chip ice cream and watching reruns of old detective dramas. The EUR strengthened to USD1.3399 from 1.3273, reaching a high of 1.3418 in last Thursday’s trading after a dismal start to the week due to the uncertainty of the Greece saga.
Back to the UK, where concerns have festered in the run up to the impending election. There is still a strong belief that it will all end with a hung parliament which, for the youngsters amongst us, means a stalemate - not a medieval-style group execution – though some may argue the latter might be a good way to teach MP’s a thing or two about fiddling expenses. The pound was also driven lower amid speculation Dubai World will prolong the repayment of its loans, hurting earnings at UK banks that serviced the state-owned Emirati company. This week Sterling has benefited from revised UK growth data but further political indecision could weigh it down.
In the past fortnight several indicators pointed towards an economic recovery in the US, which allowed a bullish dollar to push against the majors. However, later in the week Ben Bernanke gave his opinion on the situation, saying he believes that the US's fledgling economic recovery is “not quite ready to take flight” cradling the nation’s eagle in his arms lovingly - but minding his fingers.
Have a great week.
Nigel Hodges www.currencysolutions.co.uk

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