We've seen some big rises in the levels of mortgage lending recently and this is probably the most significant sign that the property market is bottoming out.
Mortgages jumped by 29 per cent in March, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders. 31,000 mortgages were advanced during the month for people buying a property (rather than re-mortgaging) - up from 24,000 in February. This was still 33 per cent lower than March 2008, however.
Even so, it was a big and significant rise. We warned at the time that the chances of loans growing consistently at such a pace were remote. And the latest data released today by the CML shows that to be the case.
Gross mortgage lending plummeted to an estimated £10.4 billion in April - that's a decline of 9 per cent from £11.4 billion in March and 60 per cent from £26.1 billion in April 2008,
There is a slight fall for seasonal reasons as Easter fell in April this year (Easter was in March in 2008). Taken together, lending for March and April is down 57 per cent on a year earlier.
CML director general Michael Coogan said: "It's still too early to spot a clear pattern of recovery in the housing market as some commentators have suggested. Activity remains weak, and we have said we will see volatility in monthly lending figures as we bounce along at the bottom of the market. Our forecast for gross lending of £145 billion in 2009 remains unchanged."
Interestingly, though - and significantly - the number of first-time buyers entering the market and getting access to finance does seem to be climbing.
In March 12,500 FTBs took out a mortgage representing 40% of all loans, which was the highest proportion since April 2005. The absolute number of first-time buyers is still very low though - 12,500, up from 9,200 in February, but well below the 17,800 recorded in March 2008.
Mortgage broker John Charcol finds a similar pattern and says that 20 per cent of mortage deals are for first-time buyers; that's compared to one in 20 in December last year. Banks do seem to be tentatively raising the amount first-timers can borrow, the average deposit is still 25 per cent.
"A surprising number of first-time buyers have managed to find deposits of at least 25 per cent in order to access a wider choice of mortgages and get a cheaper deal," said Ray Boulger of John Charcol.
"Many branches of The Bank of Mum and Dad have proved more robust than many of our High Street banks, haven't needed a government bail-out and recognise that providing their son or daughter with a sizeable deposit is often a good way of utilising their savings."
Yesterday, the annoucement by government-backed Lloyds that it was reintroducing the 95 per cent mortgage for first-time buyers made a few headlines, but the details of the product mean that in essence it still involves the equivalent of a 25 per cent deposit, supplied by parents and locked into a savings account.
As seems rational, the vast majority of borrowers are now opting to fix their borrowing rates -as trackers seem only to have the potential to rise. John Charcol saw 82 per cent of mortgage and remortgage deals being fixed-rate deals. In January some 47.8 per cent of mortgages were fixed rates.
So, more mixed signals - but, taken together, we are certainly seeing a property market that is increasingly stabilising, which is no bad thing. Is this, though, the long-bottom so often talked about?
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