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UK mortgage market steady as she goes, says CML. Defaults down, says BoE.
It’s always interesting to read the Council for Mortgage Lenders’ regular market commentaries, simply because these guys have the data that really reflects the mortgage market and people’s willingness to take on debt – and, by extension, the UK property market as a whole.

The latest report, out today, is especially interesting as it covers in large part the period immediately before the run on Northern Rock and the period since.

What was significant about the whole Northern Rock fiasco was that it was all about what couldn’t be seen – ie, where the bad debts from the US sub-prime market were – that’s why no one wanted to lend on the basis of securitised mortgage debt.

By contrast, the CML data offers a picture of how the mortgage debt market is really behaving and concludes by describing how it might develop.

Base rates – unchanged or down?

Tomorrow - October 4 –the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets to decide what to do with base rates.

My view is that rates will be left as they are for the time being, which I think is pretty much the consensus.

This is even though the next rate movement will almost certainly be down, because the current inflation figures are good (1.8%, or 0.2% below the target). A cut will certainly help those borrowers coming off fixed rate deals.

One key series of numbers the MPC will no doubt have been watching will be mortgage lending data.

As we all now know, for now, at least, it is interbank lending rates that are likely to hit many mortgage rates and not base rates. Significantly, the spikes we saw in interbank lending rates now seem to have calmed.

So, as we have argued elsewhere ( What to watch for in CEE markets ) high rates and the uncertainty in the interbank market is likely simply to be a short-lived problem.

As the CML points out, three month interbank rates are already down around 0.6% from the peaks in the second week of September, although they remain around 0.3% higher than at the start of July.

Changes in the mortgage market

So, how is the mortgage market changing?

‘The immediate outlook has become a little softer. August data points to a slowing in mortgage activity, broadly in line with expectations following the rise in interest rates over the preceding twelve months,’ says the CML.

‘Approvals for other loans, mainly further advances, fell to their lowest level in six years. We are likely to see slower house price growth and weaker lending volumes going into next year, but much of this is down to rises in interest rates over the past year, rather than a specific reaction to events in the financial markets

Defaults FALL

So, while the CML is pointing out that mortgage advances have eased back, this is not put down to any liquidity squeeze, nor credit crunch, but the effects of a series of base rate rises. The market then is behaving as it would have been expected to.

Interestingly, the Bank of England’s Credit Conditions Survey shows a fall in mortgage defaults in Q3 2007, probably against most people’s expectations that defaults would actually rise.

So, what is the CML’s view going forward?

CML economist Paul Samter, says: ‘Demand for prime mainstream lending is expected to be strong going forward and, despite difficulties faced over the availability of wholesale market funding, more secured credit is expected to be made available over the last part of the year. Demand for buy-to-let and “other” (mainly sub prime and further advances) borrowing is expected to ease a little.

‘Once market turbulence recedes, there would seem no reason to expect the mainstream market to be adversely affected for a protracted period.

‘The underlying economic environment remains strong, interest rates may start to fall, there remains an under supply of housing in the UK and demand for mainstream household borrowing is expected to hold up.

‘In short, the fundamental drivers behind the housing and mortgage markets remain strong despite recent turbulence in the financial markets. ‘

Not exactly the gloom and doom we have become used to reading over the last few weeks then!
POSTED BY ROBIN BOWMAN ON WED 3RD OCTOBER AT 17:16 GMT
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UK MORTGAGE MARKET STEADY AS SHE GOES, SAYS CML. DEFAULTS DOWN, SAYS BOE.

Hi Robin - you were right. No change to Bank of England nor Central European Bank's interest rates. Cheers Neil


POSTED BY NEIL LEWIS ON THU 4TH OCTOBER AT 14:33 Reply To Post
MORTGAGE MARKET

I phoned my bank last week to find out my remortgaging capabilities. I was concerned that they would not be as willing to lend with the recent credit crunch but they actually approved the remortgage on the spot at the same rate as my existing mortgage....so it seems that nothing has changed if you have a good credit rating. My concern is still threat of inflation which could drive up interest rates so keeping my eye on inflation data in the next 3-4 months.


POSTED BY BRETT S ON THU 4TH OCTOBER AT 14:50 Reply To Post
INFLATION

Hi Brett S I think you're right about inflation - for sure! I think that is the real indicator to watch, as you say. And cutting rates too fast and too far right now will only fuel the same kind of debt race we saw in the US that led to the whole sub-prime fiasco, which is the last thing we need! So, in my view, it's good to see the BoE and Euro central bank staying cool - at least for now. The Euro rate will surely have to come down soon or it will threaten eurozone exports even more than it already is.


POSTED BY ROBIN BOWMAN ON THU 4TH OCTOBER AT 15:28 Reply To Post
REMORTGAGE CRITERIA

I have just been caught by an inability to get a further advance to extract some added value from a house I have just bought whose yield is poor but I bought in the expectation of good capital growth as well as adding value by a high quality refurbishment. At purchase PIMS lent me 90% based on 100% rental coverage at 5% in May and now their lending policy is 85% LTV with 125% coverage at 5.75%. Luckily I can get my income from further advances of some of my Northern properties but it leave £20k locked in that I had earmarked for further purchases and I am on a 3 year penalty deal with PIMS/Mortgage Trust (which I gather is the same money as Paragon, with whom I have all my other loans). A nuisance but not a major showstopper and conditions may have eased by February when I can first apply.


POSTED BY JERRY JONES ON FRI 5TH OCTOBER AT 09:37 Reply To Post
CREDIT CRUNCHING

Hi Jerry That's interesting - and what appears to be a real life example of the credit crunch in action in the UK. And, as you say, in this instance, more of a nuisance than a showstopper. As you also say, it will be interesting to see how things have changed in a few months time. cheers


POSTED BY ROBIN BOWMAN ON FRI 5TH OCTOBER AT 10:06 Reply To Post
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