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A racing cert? What a day at the races may tell us about investor confidence

I was distracted by an email from Ryanair today that was offering 1 million free seats if its horse Mossbank won the 2.55 - incidentally the horse came in 2nd.

My colleague told me it was slow to start off - reminded me of a few times I've sat on the runway on a Ryanair flight.

To get to the point - I have always felt that horse-races are a potential indication of a country's economic performance, measuring spending power and local confidence in the market.

I like to attend horse races so this type of fuzzy analysis comes easy.
I am in no way suggesting that horse-racing is directly linked to economic performance or house price growth, but I am saying that it is ONE of the ways I like to measure local market confidence.

For instance, I have been to the Galway races in Ireland on several occasions.
Over the past number of years the races have attracted more and more non-racing types, as it were people that were more interested in who was in the corporate tent than who was in the 3.15.

Each year the visitor numbers, along with the volume of helicopter traffic increased, and it became all about big bets and even bigger hats.

This is not an exact science - this is fuzzy analysis - I believe that property investment is not all about economics - it's also about sentiment and confidence in the market.

As the Irish economy boomed, investor confidence could be measured at the races.

I'm not saying that this year's Galway races will be a disaster due to the performance in the Irish economy - after all, horse racing is in the Irish psyche, but I am just putting it out there during the Cheltenham festival week to see if anyone else sees even the smallest method in my madness!

It's a bit of a long shot - and this year's weather will not have helped matters, but I will be watching visitor numbers at Cheltenham this year.

PS - Any tips would also be welcome!


POSTED BY NOREEN LUCEY ON THU 13TH MARCH AT 19:41 GMT
TAGS: UK Property, UK investment
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A RACING CERT? WHAT A DAY AT THE RACES MAY TELL US ABOUT INVESTOR CONFIDENCE

Hi Noreen

I think the Bear Stearns tent will be empty this year!

Cheers
Neil


POSTED BY NEIL LEWIS ON MON 17TH MARCH AT 18:03 Reply To Post
RE: A RACING CERT? WHAT A DAY AT THE RACES MAY TELL US ABOUT INVESTOR CONFIDENCE

You are probably right Neil,

The conclusions on my racing day fuzzy analysis are difficult to read ..

Betting on the last day of the races is supposed to have broke British records. It is estimated that around £300m was wagered on the final day, dwarfing last year’s mark of £255m on the Grand National at Aintree.

I'd like to say this is a sign of consumer confidence but I believe it was more down to punters making up for the race cancellations due to extreme weather conditions earlier on in the week!

Thanks

Noreen


POSTED BY NOREEN LUCEY ON TUE 18TH MARCH AT 09:16 Reply To Post
RE: A RACING CERT? WHAT A DAY AT THE RACES MAY TELL US ABOUT INVESTOR CONFIDENCE

.. or may be just trying to recoup their losses on the stock market?

:-)


POSTED BY NEIL LEWIS ON TUE 18TH MARCH AT 12:57 Reply To Post
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 CONTRIBUTORS
  • Neil Lewis
  • Robin Bowman
  • Ben Greenwood
  • Noreen Lucey
  • Stanislaw Staromlynski
  • Brett Tudor
  • Panos Tsigaras

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