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Look! Today I became a multi-multi-billionaire! It was very simple – I took a walk up the pedestrian street of Belgrade, Serbia’s capital city and bought a 500 Billion Dinar bank note for just four Euros! The note – amazingly – was real – and it was printed in 1993. I became an instant multi-multi-billionaire in 1 minute! In fact, I was so impressed, that I handed over another Euro and bought a whole pack of 50, 10 and 1 billion Dinar notes. There you go – how to get instant riches! Of course, there is a serious note to this…(sorry) … the hyper-inflation that affected Sofia and Bulgaria also had a very serious impact on Serbia and Belgrade too. Not only did the hyper-inflation accompany (or cause – anyone know better?) the break-up of the former Yugoslavia, but is also seriously affected the economy. As I was told earlier today, Serbia and Belgrade has a huge need for new housing – why? – because nothing has been built for 15 years! And that means there is now substantial building and investment taking place in Belgrade, even though the country is not yet part of the EU and is still some way off entering (due to politics and Kosovo mainly).
In a way the hyper-inflation and the break up of Yugoslavia has economically trapped this region in the past - and the question is - are they about to break free from the economic straight jacket?
The biggest clue - I believe - is desire. And the desire for economic growth (ie people who are hungary and want to work really hard and take entreprenurial risks etc...) are usually the same people who have tasted the good life before - and so want it back.
What does this mean?
Well, simply, the population of central Belgrade appears posh and well healed.... and that means that we are not so much talking about the creation of a middle class but more a re-appearance. This means that Serbia and Belgrade's property market may take off sooner than I'd expected.
Cheers Neil
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