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200% Growth Challenge
Good morning from Valencia Airport.

I have a challenge - please name any city that has seen over 200% growth (ie a property you bought for 100,000 Euros is now worth 300,000 Euros) in the past 5 years!

Let's make a list of all the really successful property hotspots over the past 5 years.

Why 200%? Well, that is the amount that I believe property prices in Valencia have risen in the past 5 years.

I know this because I moved here over 5 years ago and bought our first property here (sold this spring) for over 200% profit.

How many other cities - across the world - have acheived this growth in the past 5 years? Let's make a list!

There is a reason to this ...

... and it is because I am leaving Valencia today on a fact finding / Max Growth searching trip to the UK, Italy, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Croatia to find the next candidates for 200% growth in 5 years.

Let's call it the 200% Success Club (those that did it) and the 200% Opportunity Club (those that have the potential)...

... and let me tell you - now that Valencia is a successful destination - it even has WiFi in its airport lounge! Wow - that really is arriving....

Seriously tho', Valencia won the America's Cup - which play to huge success this June and will in Aug 2008 host a city F1 race around its harbour.

It is also very likely that the next America's Cup will be here too - and even if not - the team bases will remain in Valencia...

... the airport has just completed a new extension and the metro is still adding stations and stops...

... but the property market is dead - hit by a doubling of interest rates ... and isn't going anywhere for a few years.

Most people in Valencia with property will be holding the property for a couple of years now before they will be able to exit and turn their paper profits into real cash.

This is not a problem for those who entered the market 5 years ago - because they can offer a 10% discount to get the sale. Or because the rentals on a property bought 5 years ago offer good yields.

It is just a problem for those who entered the market late!

And this is the warning - hot markets - entered late are a very bad investment.

Whereas, markets that will become hot - entered early are fantastic investments.

How do you tell the difference? Well, that is the topic of this blog - and what I'll be attempting to do as I travel around the UK and Central and Souther Europe this summer.

I think most of us would agree, that these markets are still in early phases of growth - but let us see how early - and how hard it is to invest (this is the problem with entering early - the infrastructure doesn't exist or is immature - making things harder - but not impossible).

Next stop - Crewe Station - let's see what the potential growth in Crewe over the next 5 years might be...

Cheers
Neil

ps. Please post your candidates for Success Club and Opportunity Club here...
POSTED BY NEIL LEWIS ON TUE 17TH JULY AT 09:59 GMT
TAGS: Valencia Property, Spain Property, Romania Property, Property Investment, Budapest Property, Bucharest Property
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200% GROWTH CHALLENGE

Neil - I agree all you say about getting into markets at the right time. The last ten years have been very good in most countries, mainly because of falling interest rates and increasingly easy credit. This trend is now going into reverse and my view is that the next ten years will be far more difficult. The trend will be one of stagnation in property prices. The question is, of course, whether there are markets that will significantly buck that trend. It seems to me it is not inevitable that Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Croatia, Ukraine etc will necessarily see very good further growth. The best may be behind us. Nor will Germany automatically do well just because it is cheap. I too am chasing that ideal new market. My property portfolia is held entirely in Poland. However, I am beginning to wonder if the fundamentals may not in fact now be better in South America? (eg Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil) Could that be the place for the next 200% growth investment? Any thoughts? Stephen Barnes


POSTED BY STEPHEN BARNES ON FRI 10TH AUGUST AT 23:22 Reply To Post
LATIN AMERICA

Hi Stephen Thanks - yes, we are starting to consider Latin America - I think it is the next natural region once Eastern Europe has delivered its growth - but I still think it is in the wait and see mode. For instance, there is a lot of interest in this region from Spain (due to history and language) and from our Spanish office we are considering these countries - but none strike us a obvious or immediate candidates. I am particularly concerned by the selling of the Brazilian beach - I think this offers a great profit for the land holders (and agents) - but dreadful for off plan investors (another version of the Bulgarian coast in my view - where investors can't sell for years). But, there will be some Latin American cities that benefit. The big risk in many Latin American countries are a) availability of finance b) size of country (ie will it be overlooked by FDI) c) currency and debt risks ... I have read the view that the region is sorting out its democratic credentials and this will make it more attractive than Asia (where Thailand has reversed the recent trend) etc... So, we're open to this possibility - but on our initial reading - we think it is still too early. Nevertheless, what you say about credit is true - and will affect all markets - which means I guess we should focus only on the strongest - and I think you can be a cautious investor in Central Eastern Europe and still find excellent growth opportunities. Cheers Neil


POSTED BY NEIL LEWIS ON SAT 11TH AUGUST AT 08:46 Reply To Post
BRAZILIAN BEACH

Neil Thanks for that. I agree with you. It may be too early for South America and that there is more to squeeze nearer home if careful. Particularly agree about avoiding beach and non-core property. The Property Secrets strategy of concentrating on meeting the needs of local populations in sizeable cities is, I am sure, the best and safest one. In contrast, the demand for beach type property is very fickle and could well fall away quite fast if the world economy goes through a difficult patch and the cost of credit increases. I really don't know where all the buyers (and renters) are to come from for beach type apartments in Bulgaria, Morocco, Turkey, Montenegro etc...and indeed Spain and, as you say, Brazil. The World has a lot of beach! Stephen


POSTED BY STEPHEN BARNES ON SAT 11TH AUGUST AT 11:45 Reply To Post
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Neil LewisNeil Lewis, CEO and founder of Property Secrets, is an experienced property investor in his own right and author of two highly successful property investment books, Buy To Let Secrets and Property Developer Secrets.

Neil owns property in the UK, Spain, Poland, Romania and the Czech and Slovak Republics. He is a regular columnist for Property Week magazine and has been quoted in a number of UK and European broadsheet newspapers and magazines.

A regular speaker at property investment events, Neil has appeared at CEPIF in Warsaw and the Property Investor Show and the Homebuyer Show, both in London.

His business background is from publishing to a wide range of industries such as Finance, Music, Travel, Economics and Politics before setting up Property Secrets seven years ago. Neil studied Philosophy and speaks German, Spanish and a lot of English.


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