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The Budapest, Hungary Problem - a preview
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As anyone familiar with Property Secrets knows we don't believe everything that glitters is gold!
Budapest - a shinning gem of a city - certainly glitters - but is it gold?
To avoid being seduced with wonderous pictures of the city - let me show you what has happened to the currency in the past 12 months.
As you can see - the Florint has risen sharply against the Euro. This is the opposite of what we predicted because the economy has had too much debt (a bit like the US) and this is the invese of the normal (but often delayed) result.
This means buying property in Hungary has got 10% more expensive (and anyone sell in Hungarian Florints and converting back to Euros will receive an extra 10% bonus on the property price).
Interestingly, Hungarian interest rates are coming down (slowly) and Euro rates go up (as one economy is weak and the other strong).
My question for today is -
... does this mean that Hungary now got its economy in order? If so, then, may be now would be a good time to invest - if not, then it will be wait and see!
I'm surprised by this currency graph and suspect it will be 'good progress - time to take a closer look...'
(Possibly like the south of Germany?)
Cheers Neil
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POSTED BY
NEIL LEWIS
ON
MON 23RD JULY
AT
07:44 GMT
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TAGS:
Property Investment, Hungary Property, Germany Property, Budapest Property, Budapest Property
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Taking the long view in Germany - but why things may be moving a great deal faster in Hamburg; plus opportunity in Macedonia?
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Germany gave me the usual mixed feelings.
The German debates were mainly academic discussions with one or two foreigners but too many gave the frightening prospect of the German view of long term investing being “30 years…”
As one German investor said “Just think, 30 years ago Dusseldorf was the prime location in Germany and Munich was nowhere to been seen. But just look at Munich now? What we have to do is try to imagine how things will be in another 30 years…”
… err, actually, I’d rather not!
Clearly, this view of Germany is the prevailing view and it means that Germany isn’t just Long Term – it is VERY long term.
Bright spots
Still, Germany does have bright spots which don’t share this rather fatalistic view.
Munich, clearly, has an upper hand as does Stuttgart. Frankfurt has the fear of a credit crisis damaging its banking industry or worse, forcing cuts and rationalisation that would involve the wholesale relocation of finance jobs to centres such as London.
However, the German city that really stood out was Hamburg – and not just because it had the largest stand – it also had the biggest story.
Hamburg’s Hafen project is now under construction and first phase of residential units are selling very fast.
It will increase the downtown area of Hamburg by 30% and is thought through with exceptional care. Along with the new quarter and new underground line will be added that will provide two tube stations in the Hafen quarter.
Many of the buildings are like old London docklands warehouses and the development has been designed to create attractive cultural and high street areas as well as shopping malls.
Clearly, this is intended (and I’m sure will be successful) to add tourism and international focus on the city.
Hamburg's answer to Amsterdam's charm?
Really, this is Hamburg’s answer to Amsterdam’s canals and it is already drawing investors from the post boom property markets of Holland and Denmark.
Add also the thought that the sea walls have been raised to allow underground parking – without risk of flooding – and you can see that this is a massive project with a huge amount of detail and careful planning.
Here the German reputation for quality will make its mark and I think this will be a hugely successful project and one that will catapult Hamburg to the top of the property price growth tables in Germany,
Elsewhere there is growing competition between the cities and German Laender which might create a more entrepreneurial atmosphere but I am still very cautious about ending up in an investment for 30+ years.
I might like long term investments – but I don’t mean 30 years!
Macedonia pops into view
Other countries I noted where Macedonia – basically about 2 years behind Bulgaria and doing lots to develop its tourism first (a shame but necessary perhaps?) and then follow with the cities.
This suggests that the opportunity in Macedonia is large scale land acquisition in the capital (no, not plots – but €2m+ investments) but not to develop for a year to two.
India makes a play
India made a play and will be back next year - bigger and stronger. Clearly, it is tough for foreign developers to work in India – but investors wouldn’t have the same degree of problems as English is widely spoken and whilst corruption exists, there is a high degree of transparency – and faulty though it may be – a stable democracy.
For my money, this makes India a more attractive investment target than either of the 2 other main BRICS countries (Russia, and China)
Of all the foreign exhibitors Moscow had the biggest stand. It also had the biggest projects – massive new gleaming cities on the outskirts of city.
One of the many dangers is that these cities might never be properly integrated into Moscow and therefore fail. It could be glorious or it could be nasty – I can’t tell, so I’d stay away.
Lastly, eat your heart out Spanish coast and Bulgarian Beach! Coming to a tourist destination near you is a new kind of holiday home. This will be built on gleaming newly built islands that protrude into the sea and have such an aura of perfection about them that you think you are looking at a Disney park for grown ups.
I kid you not, the Dubai developers have made their money and are moving on (okay branching out) and they are taking their ‘out of this world’ concepts with them.
It might work – it might kill the drab 60s architecture of many Spanish beach resorts - or it might just prove to be a fashion and a fad.
It certainly looks like fun to stay for a week or two on one of these islands – but after that, I fear I’d get bored.
After all, Paris Disney looked pretty cool on the adverts – but I was glad to leave after the first day!
Still, with more and more tourist offers around, the designers have turned holiday property into a fashionable art form.
I think picking winners in the holiday market ‘a la mode’ is akin to picking new artists for record companies.
Some people will be great at it – but most of us will just want to sit back and watch or listen.
Back to the boring cities where the real work gets done then!
Posted by Neil Lewis
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POSTED BY
ROBIN BOWMAN
ON
FRI 12TH OCTOBER
AT
12:50 GMT
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TAGS:
Macedonia Property, Hamburg Property, Germany Property, Germany Property
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TAKING THE LONG VIEW IN GERMANY - BUT WHY THINGS MAY BE MOVING A GREAT DEAL FASTER IN HAMBURG; PLUS
....UPDATE...
I have just finished reading a detailed office lettings report on the German market - and it makes interesting reading!
Typically, office markets are centred on the big cities - in this case Hamburg, Munich, Frankfurt, Duesseldorf and Berlin.
Here is what DTZ's report says
"On a 12-month comparison, Hamburg is quite clearly the shooting star, with turnover about 50% higher than in the first half of the year. In Duesseldorf and Frankfurt, turn over rose by about a quarter. Munich posted an increase of some 13%, while Berlin only just managed to exceed its prior-year result."
"The good performances in Hamburg and Munich were decisively fuelled by a number of large-unit lettings in the size category upwards of 10,000 sqm.
This to me points to the fact that big business (and large FDI monies) are being focused on Hamburg and Munich.
This also means that these locations will become ever more attractive for a German headoffice for other firms at the expense of those cities - such as Berlin - which are not able to pull in the big deals.
Cheers
Neil
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POSTED BY
NEIL LEWIS
ON
TUE 16TH OCTOBER
AT
08:22
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HAMBURG
Neil - your comments on Hamburg tie in with my experiences. I work for one of the world largest multinationals and we have a significant and growing presence in Hamburg. Labour is cheaper than London for example and it is very good quality labour as well. It's also an excellent city in which to live in. It has a friendly and affluent atmosphere. I was very pleasantly surprised when I visited Hamburg for work.
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POSTED BY
BRETT S
ON
TUE 16TH OCTOBER
AT
09:32
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[ Back To Blog Home ]
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Taking the long view in Germany - but why things may be moving a great deal faster in Hamburg; plus opportunity in Macedonia?
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Germany gave me the usual mixed feelings.
The German debates were mainly academic discussions with one or two foreigners but too many gave the frightening prospect of the German view of long term investing being “30 years…”
As one German investor said “Just think, 30 years ago Dusseldorf was the prime location in Germany and Munich was nowhere to been seen. But just look at Munich now? What we have to do is try to imagine how things will be in another 30 years…”
… err, actually, I’d rather not!
Clearly, this view of Germany is the prevailing view and it means that Germany isn’t just Long Term – it is VERY long term.
Bright spots
Still, Germany does have bright spots which don’t share this rather fatalistic view.
Munich, clearly, has an upper hand as does Stuttgart. Frankfurt has the fear of a credit crisis damaging its banking industry or worse, forcing cuts and rationalisation that would involve the wholesale relocation of finance jobs to centres such as London.
However, the German city that really stood out was Hamburg – and not just because it had the largest stand – it also had the biggest story.
Hamburg’s Hafen project is now under construction and first phase of residential units are selling very fast.
It will increase the downtown area of Hamburg by 30% and is thought through with exceptional care. Along with the new quarter and new underground line will be added that will provide two tube stations in the Hafen quarter.
Many of the buildings are like old London docklands warehouses and the development has been designed to create attractive cultural and high street areas as well as shopping malls.
Clearly, this is intended (and I’m sure will be successful) to add tourism and international focus on the city.
Hamburg's answer to Amsterdam's charm?
Really, this is Hamburg’s answer to Amsterdam’s canals and it is already drawing investors from the post boom property markets of Holland and Denmark.
Add also the thought that the sea walls have been raised to allow underground parking – without risk of flooding – and you can see that this is a massive project with a huge amount of detail and careful planning.
Here the German reputation for quality will make its mark and I think this will be a hugely successful project and one that will catapult Hamburg to the top of the property price growth tables in Germany,
Elsewhere there is growing competition between the cities and German Laender which might create a more entrepreneurial atmosphere but I am still very cautious about ending up in an investment for 30+ years.
I might like long term investments – but I don’t mean 30 years!
Macedonia pops into view
Other countries I noted where Macedonia – basically about 2 years behind Bulgaria and doing lots to develop its tourism first (a shame but necessary perhaps?) and then follow with the cities.
This suggests that the opportunity in Macedonia is large scale land acquisition in the capital (no, not plots – but €2m+ investments) but not to develop for a year to two.
India makes a play
India made a play and will be back next year - bigger and stronger. Clearly, it is tough for foreign developers to work in India – but investors wouldn’t have the same degree of problems as English is widely spoken and whilst corruption exists, there is a high degree of transparency – and faulty though it may be – a stable democracy.
For my money, this makes India a more attractive investment target than either of the 2 other main BRICS countries (Russia, and China)
Of all the foreign exhibitors Moscow had the biggest stand. It also had the biggest projects – massive new gleaming cities on the outskirts of city.
One of the many dangers is that these cities might never be properly integrated into Moscow and therefore fail. It could be glorious or it could be nasty – I can’t tell, so I’d stay away.
Lastly, eat your heart out Spanish coast and Bulgarian Beach! Coming to a tourist destination near you is a new kind of holiday home. This will be built on gleaming newly built islands that protrude into the sea and have such an aura of perfection about them that you think you are looking at a Disney park for grown ups.
I kid you not, the Dubai developers have made their money and are moving on (okay branching out) and they are taking their ‘out of this world’ concepts with them.
It might work – it might kill the drab 60s architecture of many Spanish beach resorts - or it might just prove to be a fashion and a fad.
It certainly looks like fun to stay for a week or two on one of these islands – but after that, I fear I’d get bored.
After all, Paris Disney looked pretty cool on the adverts – but I was glad to leave after the first day!
Still, with more and more tourist offers around, the designers have turned holiday property into a fashionable art form.
I think picking winners in the holiday market ‘a la mode’ is akin to picking new artists for record companies.
Some people will be great at it – but most of us will just want to sit back and watch or listen.
Back to the boring cities where the real work gets done then!
Posted by Neil Lewis
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POSTED BY
ROBIN BOWMAN
ON
FRI 12TH OCTOBER
AT
12:50 GMT
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TAGS:
Macedonia Property, Hamburg Property, Germany Property, Germany Property
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[ Back To Blog Home ]
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TAKING THE LONG VIEW IN GERMANY - BUT WHY THINGS MAY BE MOVING A GREAT DEAL FASTER IN HAMBURG; PLUS
....UPDATE...
I have just finished reading a detailed office lettings report on the German market - and it makes interesting reading!
Typically, office markets are centred on the big cities - in this case Hamburg, Munich, Frankfurt, Duesseldorf and Berlin.
Here is what DTZ's report says
"On a 12-month comparison, Hamburg is quite clearly the shooting star, with turnover about 50% higher than in the first half of the year. In Duesseldorf and Frankfurt, turn over rose by about a quarter. Munich posted an increase of some 13%, while Berlin only just managed to exceed its prior-year result."
"The good performances in Hamburg and Munich were decisively fuelled by a number of large-unit lettings in the size category upwards of 10,000 sqm.
This to me points to the fact that big business (and large FDI monies) are being focused on Hamburg and Munich.
This also means that these locations will become ever more attractive for a German headoffice for other firms at the expense of those cities - such as Berlin - which are not able to pull in the big deals.
Cheers
Neil
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POSTED BY
NEIL LEWIS
ON
TUE 16TH OCTOBER
AT
08:22
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HAMBURG
Neil - your comments on Hamburg tie in with my experiences. I work for one of the world largest multinationals and we have a significant and growing presence in Hamburg. Labour is cheaper than London for example and it is very good quality labour as well. It's also an excellent city in which to live in. It has a friendly and affluent atmosphere. I was very pleasantly surprised when I visited Hamburg for work.
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POSTED BY
BRETT S
ON
TUE 16TH OCTOBER
AT
09:32
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Berlin property - cheap hmmm?
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Aparently at the recent property investor show there was a large crowd at any stand offering Berlin property.
As Property Secrets members know, I am very skeptical of Berlin as an investment location and if you can persuade me to invest in Germany I would always choose Munich (or Stuttgart or possibly Hamburg, or even Dresden) but not Berlin.
How come the difference?
First off, we have published a Decision Maker guide to Berlin ... click here to access it... for a 15 page review of this city.
However, the argument seems to always come down to this
1. Berlin property is 'cheap' by which people want to imply 'under valued' 2. The argument goes that it is cheap in comparison to London or even Warsaw (both of which demonstrate rapid economic growth, huge unmet demand for property and migration into the city and job creation) 3. Despite Berlin not showing any of these attributes (Munich for instance has all of them to some degree...) Berlin is regarded under valued.
My argument is that Berlin is not under valued - nor is it over valued.
My argument is that Berlin is FAIRLY VALUED - in that for the medium term prospects for property price growth, it is priced right.
Therefore, investors have a twisted notion that property in no to low-growth Berlin is somehow a safer investment than other capital's who are demonstrating massive economic growth and property demand.
The argument for 'cheap' investments is usually based on a notion of the wheels coming off the world economy and that this event will somehow turn Berlin from a sluggish bit of a basket case capital into a dynamic driver of economic growth.
I believe this is nuts.
If the wheels fall off the world economy Berlin will go down the toilet faster than any other capital as in times of trouble there is usually a flight to quality and Berlin doesn't have the quality factor.
If you look more closely you will see that Germans are voting with their feet and wallets - they are moving to key growth cities (mainly in the south) and you can now buy (and sell) a villa in central Munich for €6m.
This recent report in the FT summarised the problem in a North South divide in which Berlin is part of the poor / declining North - while Dresden (also part of old East Germany) is performing significantly better - and is based in the southern part of East Germany.
I do accept that there is a general argument for Germany property - but I don't understand investor's obsession with Berlin.
In my book, smart investors - who are determined to over come the taxes and bureacracy of German property - should be looking south - not north - and that this does not include Berlin.
Lastly, I've heard that the big funds buying social housing by the 000s have started to off load their stock in Berlin (due to poor returns). I just hope they are not targetting unfortunate investors.
Cheers Neil
ps. I'll be at Munich expo in October again - and I'll report back on this some more
pps. If you are still determined to look at Berlin - how about Potsdam? "Potsdam: The pocket-sized capital of Brandenburg has benefited from its proximity to the federal capital. Its notably more business-friendly bureaucracy has attracted some of Berlin’s employers and its wealthiest residents. It has lively high-tech and media sectors and is home to the country’s oldest film studios at Babelsberg, which rose back from their ashes after German reunification." From the FT article quoted above...
ppps. If you really want to know what Property Secrets thinks of Germany as a whole - check out the Germany Market Profile
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POSTED BY
NEIL LEWIS
ON
THU 27TH SEPTEMBER
AT
08:55 GMT
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TAGS:
Stuttgart Property, Munich Property, Germany Property, Berlin Property
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BERLIN PROPERTY - CHEAP HMMM?
Neil
I think you're absolutely right on Berlin.
I also think that this whole question of 'cheap', 'under-valued', 'over-valued', etc is a red herring, or, more accurately, a question of semantics.
What people seem to mean when they say 'cheap' is that they believe prices will rise; when somewhere is 'over-valued' prices will fall. I think it's better to talk about 'value', personally.
The price something is selling at is market value. Full stop.
The only thing that matters is what direction is a market headed (and, as Simon makes the point, 'when' will it head in that direction) - up or down.
And, I agree with you 100%: if there is a lasting squeeze, slowdown or deterioration in confidence, Berlin will be among the first markets to tank. So, where's the value in that!
cheers
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POSTED BY
ROBIN
ON
THU 27TH SEPTEMBER
AT
15:29
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GERMANY
i also fully agree with your comments, neil, and thanks for the useful FT link. given a lot of investors want some germany in their portfolio, how about PS finding us a development in munich? wouldn't want you have to spend all your time in east europe and yorkshire.
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POSTED BY
DAN W
ON
THU 27TH SEPTEMBER
AT
16:48
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BERLIN
For what it's worth I agree too! Not often you get 3 posts in a row in agreement on this forum! Recent stats suggest prices have actually edged off a little in Berlin and no signs of change.
Huw
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POSTED BY
HUW
ON
THU 27TH SEPTEMBER
AT
18:23
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BERLIN
Thank you for an interesting and thoughtful post.
In value terms my current portfolio is split evenly between Berlin and Prague. I agree with a lot of the article although not all, and I think there are some excellent points and some missed points.
If I had resources to invest further I would currently choose the Czech Rep, or if looking for newer markets Rumania or the Slovak Rep. I wouldn't be looking further in Berlin currently
However I would like to point out
1. Berlin is a city which is difficult to compare with any other. Compared to London , Paris or Frankfurt it is very spread out and very green, it is even difficult to define a centre to it. The centre could be the K'damm (if you are a west Berliner thinking pre-unifcation mode), Alexanderplatz (East Berliners) or the Brandenburg Gate/PotsdammerPlatz/Friedrichstrasse which are regaining their pre-eminent central role post unification.
Although comparisons are made with London in terms of per sq m price being something like 10-20% of London prices, it is difficult to state that you are comparing like with like because Berlin is no way the financial centre of Germany (more like Frankfurt)
2. The market within Berlin itself is probably as diverse as the whole of Germany itself. Per sq m prices can vary much within even 100-200m or the next street, and that can make determining value quite difficult.
Demographics are enormously varying within Berlin, as well as social structure, housing etc. Berlin has a young population which can be construed as favourable demographically and some parts of the city are uniquely favoured from that angle, especially the leafy and popular Prenzlauer Berg and the up and coming suburb of Friedrichschein. They, both former eastern areas are in my opinion the most favourable areas to invest in with better yields and demographics than Charlottenberg close to the K'damm.
Interestingly, it seems that it is often the former eastern areas rather than western areas which are more desirable areas to live in and invest in eg prenzlaur Berg is better than Wedding, Treptow is better than Neukolln and arguably Mitte and Friedrichschein are better than Charlottenbug and Kreuzburg-
Apart from Potsdam there are amost no sizeable towns within easy commuting distance of Berlin, so there is no high volume commuting into the city itself like there is in London
3. De-regulation of the labour market within the EU will allow Polish workers to compete for work within 3-4 years which could dramatically improve investment prospects- Poland is only 1hr away from Berlin.
4. Property is incredibly affordable in Berlin wrt CEE and the UK ! It will take time and a shift in attitudes but while in CEE and the UK the average property is typically costing 6 years salary in Berlin it is close to 2 years salary! I know other factors are at work here such as equity in current housing which people in the UK and CEE tend to have and Germans tend not to have, but that can give an idea of the scope for growth.
Berlin (or indeed Germany)can be likened to a juggernaut while the CEE countries are more like a Mercedes transit van, more nifty and adept. I would be inclined to invest in Berlin carefully, or maybe even better some parts of Germany for the retirement pot while other parts of CEE will undoubtably achieve faster growth over a shorter time span. Although the market is a little overhyped amongst foreign buyers, it certainly isnt going to tank (it's actually tanked over most of the last 10-12 years already!) but it's probably moved up as much as it is going to for now. There is limited new build. After all we in the UK thought all the foreign property buyers in London were crazy in the early 1990s, but per sq m Berlin prices are not hugely in excess of prices in surrounding areas. There is some "quality " factor in Berlin, although it is not in the same league as London. possibly Prague and Paris too.
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POSTED BY
CHARLES
ON
SUN 30TH SEPTEMBER
AT
00:39
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BERLIN
Hi Charles
U raise a few sensible points on why Berlin is attractive in terms of quality of life, the neighbourhoods, the leafy suburbs and its low prices comapred to the Uk.
Thats fair enough but those arguments arent what might make price levels in Berlin take off. Future investments, a strong job market and a tight supply are the main reason that would make prices embark on a sustainable growth path. None of those is happening at the moment and unlikely to happen 5 years down the line.
You've also raised the pt of the job market being open to eastern europeans by 2011. That is true but having spoken to quite a few EEs, most of them would rather head west and south of the country where there is much better pay and more job opportunities.
Which brings me to the pt that if anyone is itching to invest in Germany, they might as well invest in the cities most likely to first benefit from any future price growth. Berlin is certainly not one of them IMO.
I do agree with u however that germany in general is a good hold in a long term strategy, provided one gets a good LTV funding.
C.
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POSTED BY
CLAUDE
ON
MON 1ST OCTOBER
AT
09:41
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