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Ljubjlana, Zagreb and Trieste - 3 more 200% club candidates
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Yesterday we drove via Italy, passing near to Triest and around Ljubljana and Zagreb reaching Budapest, Hungary late last night.
I'm meeting key people in Hungary today, so I'll let you know my impressions of this city tomorrow.
However, I want to put three more candidates in your mind
Trieste, Italy (population 207,000)
Ljubljana, Slovenia (population of 265,000 according to some sources - but 700,000+ according to others...)
Zagreb, Croatia (population of 700,000?)
Here's why... its the all about the border!
Cities that are located by the sea (but with no significant sea port - Hastings in Sussex for example) suffer economically because they have only half the land area in their immediate vicinity that their land locked competitors have (the other half being sea).
Of course, if there is a thriving port - then this may compensate for the lost or actually give it an extra advantage.
But I want you to think about those towns and cities that border the sea / ocean and lose out as a consequence.
Now, cities by the sea dispaly a fan shape (instead of a typical circle) which is an indicatino of a phyical border / barrier what prevents economic development on one side (unless, as I say, it has a thriving port).
The three cities I have listed above all suffer (or have suffered this problem in a number of different ways).
The barrier between Trieste (Italian - latin language) and Slovenia - is a linguistic one.
It used also to be economic (now Slovenia is part of the EU) and used also be a currency one (Slovenia now has the Euro).
However, just to the south of Trieste is Croatia (still outside EU and clearly, not a Euroland member).
So, the barriers are dropping around Trieste - but they have not all dropped yet!
Clearly, however, the tourist boom to the south of Trieste on the Croatian coast is a major economic benefit - not least because this makes Croatian border police less fussy and this encourages more traffic and trade.
Hence, with Croatia's EU membership application still proceeding, this represents a future barrier that will be removed.
Ljubljana, Slovenia too has 'connected' with Europe via currency and economic membership. However, it has two problems. Firstly, it doesn't have a motorway that connects the capital with Italy (but from my sightings yesterday, the missing sections will shortly be completed) and secondly, the motorway southward leads to non-EU Zagreb (which leads to non EU Serbia and then to Bulgaria).
Hence, the city will benefit from Croatian EU membership - just as much as Croatia and as Zagreb, Croatia connects to Budapest via motorway (which is complete as far as Hungary - but still missing a long stretch on the way to Budapest) so there will be a 'tax free' trade route for lorries and goods to pass this way.
Slovenia certainly deserves it's comparisions with Switzerland - it has a calm sophistication and appears far more prosperous that its neighbours. But I suspect that it needs the dynamism of its neighbours before it will really take off.
Which leads me to Zagreb in Croatia. This is a city to which I will return - but to follow the theme of borders - it's main border is religious - as Croatia is a predominantly Catholic country compared to the Orthodox Christianity and Muslim religions to the south.
This issues has been key in the make up (and on-going resolution) of the new countries that have (and still are) emerging from the old Yugoslavia.
Land title are key issues in Zagreb - as the country suffered depopulation of its Serbian population during the war of independence and hence investors need to proceed with caution. The ability to insure the land title may help.
Equally, Zagrab is still outside the EU and hence, fits into the Wild East section of investors portfolio - and finance for non-Croatians appears to still be a problem.
However, that won't stop the city booming and its prices jumping by our 200% in 5 year mark - it just makes it harder for non-Croatian investors to get a part of the action!
Please share any comments or insights on the potential of these locations (or recommend any others that you think will grow 200% in the next 5 years).
Many thanks Neil
ps. Today I'm in Budapest - reveiwing why Property Secrets doesn't believe (yet) in this market... more to follow...
These three properous small cities -
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POSTED BY
NEIL LEWIS
ON
MON 23RD JULY
AT
07:08 GMT
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TAGS:
Zagreb Property, Trieste Property, Slovenia Property, Ljubljana Property, Italy Property, Hungary Property, Croatia Property, Budapest Property
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THE PROBLEM WITH ITALY IS...ITALY!
NeilI was interested to read your thoughts on both Trieste and Verona as possible candidates for the 200% club.Not sure I'd agree, though - and even if I felt they may qualify, I don't think I'd put my money where my mouth was!The trouble with both locations is that they're in Italy! And, without putting too fine a point on it, Italy is in dire straits, possibly a great deal worse than many people realise. It's easy to miss the malaise - after all, the food's still the best in the world, the tourist spots idyllic (despite those pesky scorpions), and the culture and people are as magnetic and charming as always. The world's capital of fashion isn't in danger of going out of fashion anytime soon.But beneath the veneer there's a terrible battle taking place for the future of this economy between reformists and those who believe (as I read somewhere recently) that the state is a vast cow that can be milked endlessly.Without drastic reform, Italy's debt is going to sink its way of life in the not too distant future.While the creaking coalition government makes generally populist attempts to chip around the edges of ludicrous practices such as those that used to ban hairdressers from opening on a Monday, insisted that petrol stations were sighted certain distances apart to protect them from competition AND prevented supermarkets from selling non-prescription drugs, the real problem persists. The problem of Italy's gargantuan fiscal debt.There are no real signs as yet that there is an appetite for real competition in the market place, nor for reducing the massive pension burden by raising the retirement age to 60 (from 57, the lowest, I believe in the Western world), or for slashing red tape (and the number of bureaucrats) and the introduction of a truly modern tax system that drives and rewards Italians' undoubted entrepreneurship flair, instead of strangling it at birth.There is a chance - a slim chance - that the necessary reforms will take place in the next few years. And there is clearly at least a recognition in some parts of the political arena at least of what the problems are! But the jury is very definitely out at the moment and a long way from reaching even a majority decision on whether reform will come soon enough, if at all.Without big scale reform one of two things will happen, perhaps both:1) Italy will go to it's knees economically,2) It will be forced to abandon the euro (all these problems were dealt with in the past by devaluing the much missed lire).Until the signs are there that this structural reform is really underway, I personally wouldn't invest in Italian locations that are based on the country's economic well-being.BUT, if they do come, those structural reforms - slashed taxes, slashed spending and real competition - could unleash a truly vibrant and successful economy...after the initial pain, of course.Until then, I'd stick to those eternally appealing Italian tourist destination investments anyday.Unlike a sun location, a buy in, say, Tuscany, is not dependent on the fickle and price sensitive sun holiday market, commands a very high annualised yield and its capital growth will depend not so much on the Italian economy, but on that of the UK, the German , the Irish, the Dutch and America's, as well as others.I'd say the tussle over the fate of Alitalia will be a good indicator of whether Italy has the stomach for reform and is ready to face reality. On the day that the last potential bidder for the desperately ailing airline pulled out, citing unacceptable strings to the sale - one of which essentially insists that the over-staffing must continue - sections of the airline's personnel were on strike! Says it all really!Of course, as with much else in Italy, things are rarely as they seem. And it is widely believed that the government only allowed the stringent sale conditions to avoid conflict with the unions, and in the full knowledge that there would be no takers. Now it can turn to the unions with a greatly strengthened hand. A subtle tactic. Whether it will be too subtle and too slow remains to be seen.The same can be said for reform in Italy as a whole.BestRobin
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POSTED BY
ROBIN BOWMAN
ON
FRI 27TH JULY
AT
09:41
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Verona - the Italian Candidate for the 200% Club?
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The Italian A4 motorway runs east-west from France to Slovenia, just north of Milan.
Think of it as the southern stretch of an Alpine ring road - running around Switzerland.
The motorway is in a bit of a state. Perhaps I am being unfair - judging it during peak traffic - but it is long over due a 4th lane.
Equally, the toll system (mostly manual payments) feels old and need of an overhaul.
However, the overhaul is coming - the 4th lane is being built and along the stretch the most impressive location - for crane count and new logistic and office centres plus hotels - is around Verona and Padoa.
I know some key london estate agents have started to set up shop in Milan - and I even saw a Spanish franchise estate agent in lake Garda (although the doors were lock and everyone had gone on holiday I suspect!)
Still, at a glance - how about Verona, Italy?
Cheers Neil
ps. This is to add to the list of Lviv, Ukraine and Bistritia, Romania...
pps. The 200% club is a list of cities who's property price has the potential to increase 200% in the next 5 years... please add your suggestions below...
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POSTED BY
NEIL LEWIS
ON
MON 23RD JULY
AT
06:44 GMT
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TAGS:
Verona Property, Ukraine Property, Romania Property, Property Investment, Lviv Property, Italy Property, Italy Property, Bistritia Property
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Verona - the Italian Candidate for the 200% Club?
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The Italian A4 motorway runs east-west from France to Slovenia, just north of Milan.
Think of it as the southern stretch of an Alpine ring road - running around Switzerland.
The motorway is in a bit of a state. Perhaps I am being unfair - judging it during peak traffic - but it is long over due a 4th lane.
Equally, the toll system (mostly manual payments) feels old and need of an overhaul.
However, the overhaul is coming - the 4th lane is being built and along the stretch the most impressive location - for crane count and new logistic and office centres plus hotels - is around Verona and Padoa.
I know some key london estate agents have started to set up shop in Milan - and I even saw a Spanish franchise estate agent in lake Garda (although the doors were lock and everyone had gone on holiday I suspect!)
Still, at a glance - how about Verona, Italy?
Cheers Neil
ps. This is to add to the list of Lviv, Ukraine and Bistritia, Romania...
pps. The 200% club is a list of cities who's property price has the potential to increase 200% in the next 5 years... please add your suggestions below...
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POSTED BY
NEIL LEWIS
ON
MON 23RD JULY
AT
06:44 GMT
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TAGS:
Verona Property, Ukraine Property, Romania Property, Property Investment, Lviv Property, Italy Property, Italy Property, Bistritia Property
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Italian sting in the tail for romantic property investors!
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Pitty the poor romantic property investors who dream of buying run down rural properties and turning them into lucrative holiday apartment rentals - if my experience is anything to go by!
The beautiful holiday apartments that my family were due to stay in - 10 minutes up a hill from Gardone Riveria - the 5 star resort on Italy's Lake Garda - looked like a perfect investment that many Brits would dream of...
... find a pretty village about 10 minutes from a major holiday resort and convert a traditional stone house into luxury apartments and create a successful cash generative business!
... the dream normally continues ...
... thus allowing you to give up the day job and move to the sunshine in semi-early retirement.
It is certainly a beautiful dream - but normally comes with a sting in the tail... and no more than last night when my family arrived at half past midnight to our weekend Italian 'gite' - but were out again 30 minutes later!
The desposit of 100 Euros had been handed over - the luggage lugged down the rural stone steps - when we discovered the problem...
.. Scorpions! (or as I was later to discover 'scorpionis' in Italian)
Not only did we discover one scorpion in the apartment, but it was lying under a slat that made up the lever frame of the sofa bed.
Moments before, my eldest daughter had been lying on the sofa ready to sleep.
Scorpions are remarkably resistant - and despite having killed 5 or 6 large juicy creepy crawlies five minutes before, it took two large kitchen knives and a few minutes to disect the scorpion (after which it continued to move)...
... at the same time both daughters flew into hysterics (tired no more) and on rushing from the apartment discovered a second scorpion happily hidding in the corner of the corridor.
Hence, the owner was called, deposits returned and off we went..
... leaving the owner with empty apartments in a key holiday season.
Yes, we were lucky to find a hotel at 1am in the morning - but pity the poor investor/ gite owner.
The apartments and the logic of the investment were great.
But, then there were the scorpions ... with the result of lost business!
The scary thing is the things we were told included
'all the apartments have scorpions' 'scorpions always come inside when the weather is like this'
and
'the apartments have just been cleaned' ...this meant that Scorpions were an on-going problem that would only be solved by more people living in the apartments for more time.
It seems clear to me that the problem would be solved by someone living in the house/ apartments more often (ideally all year round).
Generally, all houses and rural houses especially, suffer when not occupied - and this seems to have been the problem here.
It just goes to show that successful property investment - and renting - requires tenants or holiday makers for much - if not all - of the year.
All houses and apartments deteriorate when not occupied (and rural one's or beach side apartments much faster than city one's) which mean that the rental demand must be strong for any investment to work.
If the demand for the rural gite is not strong, then the owner is reduced to spending lots of time there themselves. This may be okay - or it may be a problem - either way, it tends to blow the cover on a romantic 'semi-retirement' dream.
This is the real sting in the tail for romantic property investors and the one that we encountered on Friday night.
We moved to comfortable hotel instead - and, can report no further sightings of scorpions!
Cheers Neil
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POSTED BY
NEIL LEWIS
ON
SAT 21ST JULY
AT
22:14 GMT
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TAGS:
Rural Property, Property Investment, Italy Property, Holiday Property
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ITALIAN STING IN THE TAIL FOR ROMANTIC PROPERTY INVESTORS!
Hi Neil,
Sorry to hear about the scorpions. Another thing a property investor might want to take into account is who they are renting to.
Perhaps targeting tenants from parts of the world where scorpions, poisonous spiders etc. are the norm, e.g. Australia, might have worked better?
Cheers
Peter
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POSTED BY
PETER
ON
MON 23RD JULY
AT
10:09
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RENTS
Hi Huw
Thanks...
Actually, we'd handed over the 100 Euro deposit only after arriving - such is the Italian love of cash (and fear of credit cards).
The landlady gave us back the 100 Euro deposit without dispute - based on the fact that my kids were screaching the place down - after all, it was found under the slats of their bed and it was extremely hard to kill the damm thing!
Cheers
Neil
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POSTED BY
NEIL LEWIS
ON
THU 26TH JULY
AT
21:33
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ITALIANS & CASH
Hi Neil
The cash economy in some euro countries is interesting. I'm having to take several thousand euro to Italy to pay the balance on a rental this summer which means I have to have it with me in Rome for a few days first which is a little uncomfortable. In France it's impossible to get more than a small amount of cash out of the bank in a weekly period (think it's 500 Euros or even less) due to the government trying to crack down on the cash economy.
I think it's a great measure of how successful or otherwise a country's tax system is as if so many people are trying to avoid it it must be too high and the economy must be very inefficient. Not sure how that may impact on property investment - for example taxation in France is not particularly onerous in this respect (providing you can avoid the wealth tax) compared to the UK.
Huw
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POSTED BY
HUW
ON
FRI 27TH JULY
AT
09:14
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WEALTH TAX
Hi Huw
I know the wealth tax in Spain drives all sorts of wierd decisions.
Ie - shares in trading companies (where you can show a family interest) are exempt from wealth tax
Therefore, all very wealthy Spaniards do everything via a 'family company'
Everyone else just tries to do it with cash (ie I buy for 120k but pay 90k in bank cheques - the rest in cash - so I can put a value of 90k on my wealth tax return).
Nuts really!
Time the whole lot got reformed.
Anyone up for the job?
Cheers
Neil
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POSTED BY
NEIL LEWIS
ON
FRI 27TH JULY
AT
22:59
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SCORPIONS
Presumably you paid your rent in advance? Are you going to get it back? I would have thought it came with the territory although I can fully understand the reactions!
I can vouch for the fact that running holiday rentals is very hard work and almost never sufficient to support a lifestyle change. Mind you the bureacracy in E Europe is quite testing on the patience too!
Huw
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POSTED BY
HUW
ON
MON 23RD JULY
AT
19:05
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