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Second phase of property price growth in Poland around the corner? €38 billion to be spent on Euro 2012!
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The total value of investments relating to of Euro 2012 in Poland and Ukraine will approach €38bn, with projects in Poland accounting for around 60% of the total.
As much as one third of total costs of preparations for Euro 2012 will be taken up by road building projects in Poland and they are expected to amount to twice as much as those planned in Ukraine.
The value of construction investments in sports, hotel and transport infrastructure, including roads, railways and airports, related to the organisation of Euro 2012 in Poland and Ukraine will near €38m, according to PMR, the market research company, in its report "Euro 2012 in Poland - Construction Investments" and "Euro 2012 in Ukraine - Construction Investments".
€12 billion roads
In Poland, the value of road construction projects related to the organisation of the European football championships may total as much as €12bn.
In addition to the construction of sections of the A2 motorway (eastern section) and the A4 motorway (western section), virtually the entire length of the A1 motorway and the expressway network remain to be constructed, with the S5 expressway linking Wroclaw, Poznan and Gdansk as the key project.
Ukrainian road projects may total more than €5bn; the Lviv-Krakovets and the Lviv-Brody sections, which stand the greatest chance of being completed, are estimated to cost €800m in total.
The largest railroad construction projects in Poland include the modernisation of the main railway lines linking the cities hosting Euro 2012 matches, the construction of the second line of the Warsaw underground as well as the construction and modernisation of several railway stations and railway links between the airports and the city centres.
Ukraine projects
Projects in Ukraine include the electrification of railway lines of several hundred kilometres in length, the construction of fast-train routes linking the main cities, extensions of the underground lines in Kiev, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk as well as the completion of the construction of the first line of the Donetsk underground.
Both Poland and Ukraine plan to expand their municipal tramway networks by 2012. What's interesting, contrary to the pattern to be followed by Poland, Ukrainian railroad construction projects are expected to be more valuable than those related to the construction of roads.
Key airport building projects for Euro 2012, will be carried out at eight airports in Poland (in addition to the six airports in the main cities, new airports will be built in Modlin and Gdynia) and eight airports in Ukraine. The value of expenditure on airport-related projects in Poland and Ukraine will near €2bn.
More than soccer
“For Poland and Ukraine, Euro 2012 is much more than just a prestigious football competition as the costs related to the construction and modernisation of stadiums will account for less than 10% of the total value of planned investments.
"Euro 2012 will be an opportunity for the two countries to take a major step forward and make up for decades of underinvestment in the transport infrastructure; a vast majority of investments (four fifths of the funds) will be allocated to projects of this type," the report says.
The affects of this massive spending - the jobs created - plus the prospect of many Poles returning to Poland see Boost on the way for Polish property market? can only be positive on the property market and speed the approach of a big second phase of growth in many key Polish cities.
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POSTED BY
ROBIN BOWMAN
ON
MON 18TH FEBRUARY
AT
12:09 GMT
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TAGS:
Poland Property, Poland Property
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[ Back To Blog Home ]
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Second phase of property price growth in Poland around the corner? €38 billion to be spent on Euro 2012!
|
The total value of investments relating to of Euro 2012 in Poland and Ukraine will approach €38bn, with projects in Poland accounting for around 60% of the total.
As much as one third of total costs of preparations for Euro 2012 will be taken up by road building projects in Poland and they are expected to amount to twice as much as those planned in Ukraine.
The value of construction investments in sports, hotel and transport infrastructure, including roads, railways and airports, related to the organisation of Euro 2012 in Poland and Ukraine will near €38m, according to PMR, the market research company, in its report "Euro 2012 in Poland - Construction Investments" and "Euro 2012 in Ukraine - Construction Investments".
€12 billion roads
In Poland, the value of road construction projects related to the organisation of the European football championships may total as much as €12bn.
In addition to the construction of sections of the A2 motorway (eastern section) and the A4 motorway (western section), virtually the entire length of the A1 motorway and the expressway network remain to be constructed, with the S5 expressway linking Wroclaw, Poznan and Gdansk as the key project.
Ukrainian road projects may total more than €5bn; the Lviv-Krakovets and the Lviv-Brody sections, which stand the greatest chance of being completed, are estimated to cost €800m in total.
The largest railroad construction projects in Poland include the modernisation of the main railway lines linking the cities hosting Euro 2012 matches, the construction of the second line of the Warsaw underground as well as the construction and modernisation of several railway stations and railway links between the airports and the city centres.
Ukraine projects
Projects in Ukraine include the electrification of railway lines of several hundred kilometres in length, the construction of fast-train routes linking the main cities, extensions of the underground lines in Kiev, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk as well as the completion of the construction of the first line of the Donetsk underground.
Both Poland and Ukraine plan to expand their municipal tramway networks by 2012. What's interesting, contrary to the pattern to be followed by Poland, Ukrainian railroad construction projects are expected to be more valuable than those related to the construction of roads.
Key airport building projects for Euro 2012, will be carried out at eight airports in Poland (in addition to the six airports in the main cities, new airports will be built in Modlin and Gdynia) and eight airports in Ukraine. The value of expenditure on airport-related projects in Poland and Ukraine will near €2bn.
More than soccer
“For Poland and Ukraine, Euro 2012 is much more than just a prestigious football competition as the costs related to the construction and modernisation of stadiums will account for less than 10% of the total value of planned investments.
"Euro 2012 will be an opportunity for the two countries to take a major step forward and make up for decades of underinvestment in the transport infrastructure; a vast majority of investments (four fifths of the funds) will be allocated to projects of this type," the report says.
The affects of this massive spending - the jobs created - plus the prospect of many Poles returning to Poland see Boost on the way for Polish property market? can only be positive on the property market and speed the approach of a big second phase of growth in many key Polish cities.
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POSTED BY
ROBIN BOWMAN
ON
MON 18TH FEBRUARY
AT
12:09 GMT
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TAGS:
Poland Property, Poland Property
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Europe's own China
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"Europe’s periphery has emerged as one of the most vibrant parts of the global economy – a fact little recognised by investors mesmerised by the emergence of China and India"
FT, 8th Jan http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4f1867d8-bd44-11dc-b7e6-0000779fd2ac.html
How true is this?
This is a quote from the chief market strategist at Bank of America on the FT's site yesterday - 8th Jan 2008.
Well, I kind of want to say 'told you so'! And aren't you glad you have invested in these markets before the rest of the FT reading public?
But what is really interesting is that it is now becoming public knowledge that China and India have mesmerised investors into missing the opportunities in central Eastern Europe.
Why is that?
From BRICS to 'BRICEES'
Well, one possible (but false) explanation for why investors might have missed central Eastern Europe is because the opportunity isn't as good - but I don't believe this and nor does the Chief Market Strategist of Bank of America based on his recent article.
I believe that investors missed central Eastern Europe because it is a complex and diverse region and isn't as easy to prononuce as India or China.
As I argued in my recent End of Term Performance Report - the term BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India and China) has missed out the other most exciting (but also most stable and secure) region of central and Eastern Europe.
Hence, I propose that we should now talk about Brickies (BRICEES) and not just BRICS! (This also seems the most appropriate name given that we are interesting in property in this region).
It is much easier, for instance, to talk India - than it is to talk about the 12 new countries that have joined the EU in the past 3 years - along with as many languages and nearly as many currencies (Cyprus, Malta and Slovenia have now all successfully adopted the Euro).
Yet, this diversity is exactly why the region offers such opportunity. Whilst the Baltics have done their bit on property price growth for now - the focus has shifted to Romania and Bulgaria.
However, just as Czech Republic began a second wave of property growth last year, so Slovakia is re-entering the property price growth curve and will be followed by a second wave in Poland - in about 12 months.
The good news - is that many investors still haven't figured out where central Eastern Europe is - nor have they managed to stick any money there yet.
Hence, whilst these markets certainly registered excellent growth and are experiencing increased interest from fund investors - the region remains relatively untouched by foreign investors!
This would suggest that there is plenty more growth to come! But that you do need to know your Bucharests from your Budapests! And that is the sustainable advantage that Property Secrets can offer.
Cheers Neil
ps. One last quote from yesterday's article 'Europe’s got its own China next door'
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POSTED BY
NEIL LEWIS
ON
TUE 8TH JANUARY
AT
17:29 GMT
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TAGS:
UK Property, Slovakia Property, Romania Property, Property Investment, Poland Property, London Property, India Property, East European Property, Czech Property, China Property, Bulgaria Property
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EUROPE'S OWN CHINA
Hi Neil Interesting quote from Martin Wolf writing in the FT about the challenges ahead for the world economy on Tuesday: 'Yet the remarkable fact about this turmoil is that emerging economies are emerging as safe havens: growth there is being sustained; and credit spreads have moved little. 'The apparent invulnerability of emerging economies to the US slowdown is noteworthy. It is duly noted in the World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects. '.......It is astonishing how widespread rapid growth has now become in the developing world. In 2007, for example, growth is estimated by the World Bank to have run at 10.0 per cent in east Asia, 8.4 per cent in south Asia, 6.7 per cent in eastern Europe and central Asia, 6.1 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa, 5.1 per cent in Latin America and 4.9 per cent in the Middle East and north Africa. 'The soaring prices of oil and other commodities make this picture of broadly shared growth yet more noteworthy. These have had remarkably little impact on global growth. It is far more plausible to view them as a consequence of growth than as a constraint upon its continuation.' The growth momentum seems so strong that even if it is affected by a slowdown in developed countries - an effect I think is inevitable - there is plenty of capacity there to still see very strong growth. One interesting area to consider is whether FDI into CEE from developed countries - the main driving force for growth - will slow if there is a sustained slowdown in the west, where most of the investment is coming from. I think this is partly how these economies are different to those of China, Brazil and Russia, which are being driven by massive trade surpluses. The answer is pretty positive and I'll aim to have a look at this in a forthcoming blog. cheers
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POSTED BY
ROBIN BOWMAN
ON
THU 10TH JANUARY
AT
11:53
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RE: EUROPE'S OWN CHINA
Thanks Robin yes - this re-enforces the view we had back in the Autumn that the credit crunch is turning the assessment of risk upside down. Emerging markets are definately in! Cheers Neil
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POSTED BY
NEIL LEWIS
ON
THU 10TH JANUARY
AT
11:56
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Polish rent rises – Independent data confirms rentals are surging
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In markets experiencing ultra rapid property price growth, rentals are always going to be flat. The fact of life is that it is all but impossible to plug into very rapid price growth AND high rentals.
For this reason, it is almost always necessary to cashflow the early years of a property investment in CEE markets.
Once the price growth starts to slow from the heady initial pace, we enter a second period of growth – the plateau period - of slower capital growth and higher rents.
This is because, as an increasing number of people need to wait longer in order to afford to buy, so demand switches from buying to renting – this increased demand pushes pushing up prices in the rental sector.
That, at least, is the logical theory.
But nothing can beat hard evidence – evidence that we can now see.
Of course, the next phase is the pattern we have seen develop in Prague, and that is a plateau period of strong rents and slower growth followed by a second wave of strong capital growth – not as strong as the first wave, but still exceptional.
Meanwhile, investors are able to take advantage of a newly vibrant rental market, as is the case in Poland.
The independent data comes from the property portal Szybko - one of the biggest property portals in Poland. Szybko’s big advantage is the fact that it advertises rental properties on both the primary and secondary markets.
What is interesting about the data is the consistency across the great majority of the Polish market.
Not only are rentals rising, voids are falling.
The time taken to rent out an apartment in Wrocław, for example has decreased from 24 days in 2006 to 19 days now.
A similar situation can be found in other main Polish cities such as Warsaw and Kraków.
According to the portal’s database, rents in Wrocław rose especially rapidly between September and October 2007. Rental rates for studios were close to Warsaw’s level. The demand is huge as it comes not only from students, but also from migrants finding employment in the city.
The problem with the rental market in Poland is that there is no way to estimate the real size of the market as many landlords (to avoid paying taxes) operate on the black market.
According to research conducted by TNS AISA for GE Money Bank, 70% of Polish people age 18-29 still live with their parents. In Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania or Russia the percentage is much lower.
For example 62% of surveyed Romanians declared that they own house. So, it is highly likely that the Polish pattern will follow that elsewhere going forward, creating increased rental demand.
Property Secrets analyst Anna Grybel said: “We are seeing a pattern develop in Poland exactly as we predicted.
‘We should expect strong increases in rent levels in Warsaw, Wrocław and Kraków as these cities have already entered a new phase of development and the sale market is cooling off.
‘Prices increase here will be only 5-10% in 2007. Strong inflow of migrants and significant students’ communities in those cities combined with lack of supply of quality rental apartments will continue to push up rents.
‘This especially applies to Wrocław, where anecdotal evidence is that supply significantly outstrips demand.
‘In Gdańsk, Poznań and Katowice, property prices have been increasing faster at 20-50% in 2007 – a sign that the markets are still in the first phase of rapid growth.
‘However, Gdańsk and Poznań are slowing down on a monthly basis – a sign they are coming to the end of their initial rapid price growth phase.
‘Katowice still has a lot of potential for future price increases – the city was the last Polish city to take off and that’s why here the residents’ purchasing power is still significantly higher than in other Polish cities - the average price hasn’t exceeded PLN6,000/sqm, while wages are the second highest after Warsaw.
‘In those cities it will take longer to see rents increasing significantly.’
Click on tables below to see details....





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POSTED BY
ROBIN BOWMAN
ON
MON 3RD DECEMBER
AT
19:30 GMT
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TAGS:
Wroclaw Property, Warsaw Property, Rental, Poznan Property, Poland Property, Katowice Property, Letting, Gdansk Property
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POLISH RENT RISES – INDEPENDENT DATA CONFIRMS RENTALS ARE SURGING
Romania and Poland - statistics and lies...
'According to research conducted by TNS AISA for GE Money Bank, 70% of Polish people age 18-29 still live with their parents. In Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania or Russia the percentage is much lower.
For example 62% of surveyed Romanians declared that they own house. So, it is highly likely that the Polish pattern will follow that elsewhere going forward, creating increased rental demand.'
This statement might be 'according to' but is it worth quoting? Assuming we are talking about the same age group (I dont have time to source the original report) do you REALLY belive that 62% of Romanians own their own houses? Maybe 2% is nearer the figure but that is only a guess. But of course it depends on who responded to the survey..and who was asked to participate.
I am a great supporter of PS's style of analysis and I believe it to be the best. However it could clearly be better if such 'according to' statements were backed up by supplementary evidence and the reality.
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POSTED BY
CHARLES BELL
ON
SAT 8TH DECEMBER
AT
02:00
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OWNERS
Charles, I don't understand. Are you suggesting that 98% of Romanians are renting?
My understanding was that in Romania (as with other CEE countries) the majority of people are owner occupiers, having been given their apartments with the end of communism. This is a big part of PS's 'affordability' argument - that locals can afford to buy swanky new builds because they already have so much equity in their existing properties.
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POSTED BY
ANDREW
ON
SAT 8TH DECEMBER
AT
12:32
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