Hi Dan Spot on - property is a local game! However, there are some useful things you can say at a national level - such as GDP etc... but it is worth remembering that this is principally a summation of the key points of growth (ie key cities) and doesn't necessarily include the trees! Cheers Neil

Dan I completely agre with your theory. National stats can be useful indicators, and certainly government characteristics (on a national level) as well as mortgage markets are important. As far as GDP growth and economic success, even smaller countries show big diversity. You're always going to have to look at the general state of a country first (politics, economics, and so on), but understanding that this is only a segment of the story is, as you imply, essential. So, it's really all about which cities - even cities within countries that may seem a little less than attractive in general for property investors. cheers

Many thanks, Huw. I agree, the argument that people will work longer and harder is plainly nonsense. It just doesn't add up. The aging of populations is a huge issue that will affect not just 'old' countries, but many 'younger' ones. I use use younger to mean emerging. Look at China with it's one child policy. The Little Emperors are now 20 and 30-somethings. Who will support their parents - the ratio is at least 2 parents ot one child! That's without the grans and grandpas! Japan also has massive problems where almost 20% of the population are 65 or more already. German, too, has a big big problem. Catholic countries simply don't always have big birth rates. Look at Italy - one of the lowest birthrates in the world (and constantly angst-producing in the land where machismo was invested!) Spain is also pretty low (although I confess to not knowing the exact rate). I think it boils down to economics not religion. Decisions like how many children to have can be made when you have the means to decide AND when you start to question whether having more children is actually financially beneficial. Obviously, there are some exceptions to this - Ireland, I suppose. But I think generally the richer a country becomes the more its birthrate falls - at least in places where women are educated and given opportunities. Then, they tend to delay or opt out of childbirth more. I don't see why Poland, for example, should be any different. As far as new Europe and returnees goes - that's a fascinating question. I have just been discussing this with Anna in Crewe - who is Polish. She concludes that many people remain undecided about this question and I think that's becasue they don't need to decide. This is not like applying for a green card - once you're allowed into the US, you can't just throw it in and change your mind. Nor like emmigarting to Australia. Poles, for example, can come and go - the more professionally qualified they are - the more so. A job in Warsaw for two years, a move to London or Milan (where they pick up another language). This is the pattern for those well-educated, multi-lingual CEE citizens, in the future, I believe. I can use the example of asia where I lived for a fair time. You see lots of Chinese, for example,, who left to study and work in the US and Europe, returning to Shanghai or Beijing because they have language skills and international professional experience. They can earn more money! But they don't regard it as 'going home'. The next job may well be in Hong Kong, or San Francisco. It's globalisation, I think.

Hi Huw My experience of Spain is that the economy has been driven by women entering the work place for the first time (or at least entering interesting / powerful jobs for the first time). Based on what I have read - and personal experience - I would suggest that this has delayed the child rearing days by around 10 years. Hence, for a period - as this demographic changes works through, there will be a much lower birth rate. Then, once the shift has worked through - hey presto - the birth rate will suddenly revert to what were previously normal levels and everyone will start worrying about sea levels, limited hydrogen stocks or something else ...(property prices I hope!). Spain being a Catholic country makes it a good template for Poland. It also means that women were kept out of the work place for longer than had happened in more protestant parts of Europe - but that once women get access to work (and interesting work) they don't tend to let go and hold on tight to the hard earned rights. There are a lot more women in Spanish politics than in British politics at both a national and regional level. So, I think we are looking at a 10 to 20 year adjustment - which will then re-adjust itself. In the mean time, the new double earning capacity of modern couples will massively drive property buying power and habits in the cities and we'll get some big property price growth figures. Cheers Neil

You're right Brett, at least I agree - there's much more to life than GDP. But the point is you need to be able to afford to leave. Either you can afford it because you've very little to lose (CEE emigrees), or you can afford to do it probably because your house is worth a fortune and you can buy a mansion somewhere else with a nicer climate. But in the latter case, you must accumulate the wealth first. If a country is wealth producing, there will always be someone to take your place as you head off to the south of France or wherever is your fancy.

Not a title you normally find on this site! So this is the real reason you guys are ex-pats! Can't say I blame you. Seriously though, can't say I disagree with your comments. Keep the blogs going - if anything they are more interesting than the standard articles and an excellent innovation. Huw

Hey Robin If a long term UK investor is an Investment Plodder.. ... what does that make me? (be nice now...) Cheers Neil