|
Florida bites back! Signs of things to come? And perhaps a sense of perspective....
|
Here perhaps is some real perspective on the current state of the property market in the US and - if you follow one logical line of argument - also by extension the UK property market.
The Wall Street Journal is currently featuring a piece about how bargain hunters in the States are starting to circle in some of the areas most badly hit by foreclosures.
Deals are there to be done and some are spectacular - 40% and more off asking prices.
And, while some buyers are hanging back in anticipation of even more mouth-watering deals, it seems many buyers simply can't resist the kind of prices on offer. There is evidence of bidding wars over distressed properties and one agent describes how the showings they conducted tripled in February over the same time last year.
Near the bottom?
So, does this indicate that we are near or are nearing the bottom in the US, simply because the bottom fishers are becoming active? Could be.
Now there's no doubt that the US property market has been hit far worse than the UK's - so far.
Not so, in Spain's case, however, where the property market is currently being hammered on a US scale. The Spanish press is talking of falls in home purchases on the secondary market of about 35%. Total lending to home-buyers fell almost 28 per cent to €13.4bn. Anyone looking at the costas is going to find a lot of choice. No evidence of bargain hunters gathering there yet. But they surely will at some point?
In terms of the UK market, we've seen lots of evidence of some minor price falls, mortgage lending falling and even the BoE's Mr King has said he will be 'surprised' if real UK property prices are much higher in a few years' time than they are now.
Putting aside our faith in Mr King, few would disagree with that, surely. He added that such an adjustment in real prices would be a good thing - surely few would disgree with that either. There is no suggestion though that the medium to long term outlook is anything but positive.
So, if we believe the UK market will go where first the US and now Spain are going (two markets like the UK that have seen huge property price growth fuelled by cheap credit), then we may, in the US at least, see some glimmer of perspective about the so-called 'meltdown' we keep hearing about.
Why?
Because what really leaps out of the WSJ piece are the numbers.
Meltdown
It's often the case that the extreme pockets of the market are where the focus ends up - the huge price falls. These are what lead to talk of a 'meltdown'.
But when you look behind the rhetoric, things are a little less dramatic. The most distressed state is Florida - home to THE most distressed area in the US in terms of property price falls - the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro area in southwest Florida, according to RealtyTrac of Irvine, California.
This is THE worst place in the whole, vast US property market, with a record 3,739 properties in some stage of foreclosure, or one in 84 households - that's nearly seven times the national average.
Average sale prices for family homes in Lee County, which encompasses Fort Myers and Cape, are down 17%.
That's bad, but remember this is THE worst. So, is this the meltdown we've been hearing about?
And the rate of price fall across the nation, in which the property market is regularly described as being in freefall? An 8% fall.
When you factor in all those huge discounted deals of 40% and 50% and suchlike are wrapped up in that figure of 8% overall, this starts to put matters in perspective, surely?
If this is a meltdown, it's not as we know it!
What is also very significant is that once the lending blockage starts to ease - as it will at some point this year - we are going to see a huge amount of hoarded money (hoarded by banks) aimed at investment through credit lines, and a lot of this is almost certainly going to head into property markets that look like they offer real bargains.
Where to invest?
Where else will it go? 8% down - even 17% - compared to what equities have done in the last few years is reassuring.
Now, while it may not be time to dip a toe back in the water of the UK market yet, because things will almost certainly get worse before they start to get better, maybe, that worse isn't really going to be so bad after all - even if it is still likely we won't see much growth in the UK for the next two to three years.
So maybe now - while sentiment is depressed and yet fundamentals are basically the same as previously - is the time to look at those markets that will really benefit from the pick up in confidence?
Those economies with huge potential for growth and which have previously attracted huge amounts of FDI. Which for any smart property investor brings us back to selected markets in central and Eastern Europe...surely!
|
|
POSTED BY
ROBIN BOWMAN
ON
MON 31ST MARCH
AT
21:41 GMT
|
|
TAGS:
USA Property, UK Property, Property Investment, CEE Property Investment
|
|
[ Back To Blog Home ]
|
FLORIDA BITES BACK! SIGNS OF THINGS TO COME? AND PERHAPS A SENSE OF PERSPECTIVE....
Hi Robin People are starting to look at the Florida market as a golden opportunity now with prices looking so cheap and the weak dollar. In my view Florida will always be a good location. Its demographics are good with around 3,000 people moving to the state each day (from memory so open to corrections!), tourism industry continues to do well etc. Some issues I would raise with Florida and more experienced investors in the market might be able to comment on this: Buying in the right area for rentals – I would imagine property a lot of investors will be looking at will be dependent on the tourist market thus very important to get location right, in terms of areas that permit holiday lets and in particular short term lets. Running costs and county taxes are high I believe so important to get the rental right. In my opinion, it might be time to start looking but I wouldn’t be in any hurry yet. After so much capital growth and price inflation in the US and particularly Florida, there is probably more depreciation to come yet and along with that more foreclosures. Anyone looking at getting into the US market now? Noreen
|
POSTED BY
NOREEN LUCEY
ON
TUE 1ST APRIL
AT
13:00
|
|
RE: FLORIDA BITES BACK! SIGNS OF THINGS TO COME? AND PERHAPS A SENSE OF PERSPECTIVE....
I think the time will be right very soon, if not already, to look at places like Florida. Yes the mrket may not have botomed out just yet but when it does, say in 6 months time it will be too late as the signals will be obvious to everyone. Better to get in just before the bottom and be ready for the rebound. Noreen you're absolutely right in what you say. I nearly bought 18 months ago but was put off by the bubble and the high property taxes but I think I'd put up with the latter now. It's just a question of the time to do the research. I'm going to take a look at North Carolina when I go out there in June as that was quite a booming area and may throw up some bargains but I do think the right property in the right area of Florida will be a good bet now. One final thought - I wonder how many of the forclosures are real "sub-prime" - wooden roadside shacks and/or mobile homes. I suspect quite a lot. Huw
|
POSTED BY
HUW
ON
TUE 1ST APRIL
AT
22:44
|
|
RE: FLORIDA BITES BACK! SIGNS OF THINGS TO COME? AND PERHAPS A SENSE OF PERSPECTIVE....
One thing to keep in mind on the US economic situation, while we have seen the credit crunch unfold the effect on the wider economy has yet to be fully felt. If this effect results in widespread job losses (likely at some stage) then further property market declines will follow. Such declines need not be restricted purely to sub-prime.
|
POSTED BY
GEORGEH
ON
WED 2ND APRIL
AT
08:17
|
|
RE: FLORIDA BITES BACK! SIGNS OF THINGS TO COME? AND PERHAPS A SENSE OF PERSPECTIVE....
Hi George I wasn't suggesting any further problems would be related just to sub prime, only that Florida has a significant element of sub-prime properties, which lead to the stats quoted above. As you say, it's really a question of judgement as to how far the market has got to fall. My view is that it will be near the bottom in the next 3 months which will be the time to start looking. Huw
|
POSTED BY
HUW
ON
WED 2ND APRIL
AT
08:55
|
|
RE: FLORIDA BITES BACK! SIGNS OF THINGS TO COME? AND PERHAPS A SENSE OF PERSPECTIVE....
Have to agree with Huw, There is no doubt in my mind that the US has a long struggle ahead of it, however Florida is somewhat insulated from the pain because of the international tourist industry, Florida prices will recover more quickly than elsewhere due to speculative buying - based on the likelyhood of a fast recovery. The problem is this way of thinking. The problem I see is that people are basing their property purchasing decisions assuming that the tourism will rebound quickly due to international holidaymakers due to weak dollar, consider that the $ will not stay weak for long since the FED will have to raise interest rates quickish within 6 months to offset inflationary pressures by my reckoning. Consider also that a weak US economy / global slowdown will result in a FALL in national & international holiday makers. Consider also that prices are not cheap yet .... or even good value! Since we are talking of falls from the position of being massively overvalued. I'd give it another 6 months, wait for the Bush government to indicate the rise of interest rates, - a sure sign that the property market has bottomed out. Another good indicator will be the recovery of builders stocks and shares ..... usually preceeds the property market recovery by 4 months or so. Until then your money is better off invested elsewhere.
|
POSTED BY
RICHARD
ON
WED 2ND APRIL
AT
10:01
|
|
RE: FLORIDA BITES BACK! SIGNS OF THINGS TO COME? AND PERHAPS A SENSE OF PERSPECTIVE....
Hi It appears it's not just Florida! Bargain seekers buy up Detroit foreclosures, reports that city's paper. Investors from both the U.S. and abroad have descended upon Detroit, purchasing foreclosed homes in bulk, says the Detroit Free Press. In February, home sales were up 49% in the city, which led the U.S. in the number of foreclosures last year. Many buyers are snatching up multiple properties with the hopes of selling them back to investors to rent them out. Homes in Detroit's "better neighborhoods" garner $850 a month. Many hope to later sell the homes and are betting that the local market will improve within the next five to 10 years. With so many foreclosures on the market now, "banks must sell in bulk so they don't get overwhelmed with property," says the piece. However, closing on a bulk foreclosure deal with a bank can be tough going, according to the article. While investors may look to get homes at 20 to 25 cents on the dollar, banks holding Detroit properties are seeking 30 to 35 cents on the dollar. Obviously, if you're looking at a market like Detroit, you are well advised to do your due diligence well, as parts of the city notoriously resemble a war zone! But 30 cents to the dollar in the 'better neighbourhoods' is bound to attract interest. Maybe, though, we're talking here simply about speculators? cheers
|
POSTED BY
ROBIN BOWMAN
ON
WED 2ND APRIL
AT
10:44
|
|
RE: FLORIDA BITES BACK! SIGNS OF THINGS TO COME? AND PERHAPS A SENSE OF PERSPECTIVE....
Hi The National Association of Realtors (NAR) 2008 Investment and Holiday Home Buyers Survey was published this week and made for some interesting reading. The report painted a picture of the property market in decline comparing figures between 2006 and 2007 - this we all know - however the interesting part of the report was the increase in foreign investors in the US. It doesn’t come as any surprise that with the strength of the Pound and the Euro against the Dollar; and a large amount of cheap, distressed properties on offer, foreign buyers are helping to take up some of the slack left by the sub-prime crisis in the US. It is the profile of the foreign investors that makes for interesting reading - the majority of foreign property buyers in the US are from Europe (33%) with UK investors (12%) making up the biggest percentage - the five most acquisitive nationalities investing in US property are: Mexico (13%), UK (12%), Canada (11%), India (6%) and China (5%). The report also provided useful insights about UK investors buying in the US. They are predominantly lifestyle buyer with 55% wanting the property as a ‘holiday home’, with only 23% of investors who said their property was to be used as a rental investment and 21% planned to use the property for both holiday and holiday letting. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of UK investors purchased in the South of the country followed by the West (26%), Midwest (5%) and the North East (5%). A larger percentage of foreign buyers from the United Kingdom – nearly half – purchased homes in Florida than any other state, the report stated. When financing their purchase, 33% of UK buyers paid in cash – which is higher than the average for foreign investors (28%). The only country that paid in cash more than the UK was Canada (47%). So Florida again features as an old favourite but buyers from India and China are now starting to dip their toe in the US property market. This corresponds with our discussion yesterday about the notion that sustained growth in emerging economies this year could tickle the economic giants of this world a little? Noreen
|
POSTED BY
NOREEN LUCEY
ON
WED 2ND APRIL
AT
11:08
|
|
RE: FLORIDA BITES BACK! SIGNS OF THINGS TO COME? AND PERHAPS A SENSE OF PERSPECTIVE....
i also find the US an interesting market - not just because it's such a buyers' market but also because i think the dollar is likely to strengthen against the pound over the next year or two. but just as in the UK, there's plenty of good data on sale prices and very little on rental yields. anyone come across anything useful, e.g. for locations in florida? regards, dan
|
POSTED BY
DAN W
ON
FRI 4TH APRIL
AT
19:21
|
|
RE: FLORIDA BITES BACK! SIGNS OF THINGS TO COME? AND PERHAPS A SENSE OF PERSPECTIVE....
US is for sure a good time to buy at the moment but if you do then buy a foreclosure in an auction house not one in an agency window. More work but it means the price willl be wholesale not retail and currently there is plenty of choice to get what you want.
|
POSTED BY
BULBASAURUS
ON
SAT 5TH APRIL
AT
03:59
|
|
|
|
[ Back To Blog Home ]
|
|
CONTRIBUTORS
- Neil Lewis
- Robin Bowman
- Ben Greenwood
- Noreen Lucey
- Stanislaw Staromlynski
- Brett Tudor
- Panos Tsigaras
BLOG POSTS
Aug 2008
Jul 2008
Jun 2008
May 2008
Apr 2008
Mar 2008
Feb 2008
Jan 2008
Dec 2007
Nov 2007
Oct 2007
Sep 2007
Aug 2007
Jul 2007
|