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Ljubjlana, Zagreb and Trieste - 3 more 200% club candidates
Yesterday we drove via Italy, passing near to Triest and around Ljubljana and Zagreb reaching Budapest, Hungary late last night.

I'm meeting key people in Hungary today, so I'll let you know my impressions of this city tomorrow.

However, I want to put three more candidates in your mind

Trieste, Italy (population 207,000)

Ljubljana, Slovenia (population of 265,000 according to some sources - but 700,000+ according to others...)

Zagreb, Croatia (population of 700,000?)

Here's why... its the all about the border!

Cities that are located by the sea (but with no significant sea port - Hastings in Sussex for example) suffer economically because they have only half the land area in their immediate vicinity that their land locked competitors have (the other half being sea).

Of course, if there is a thriving port - then this may compensate for the lost or actually give it an extra advantage.

But I want you to think about those towns and cities that border the sea / ocean and lose out as a consequence.

Now, cities by the sea dispaly a fan shape (instead of a typical circle) which is an indicatino of a phyical border / barrier what prevents economic development on one side (unless, as I say, it has a thriving port).

The three cities I have listed above all suffer (or have suffered this problem in a number of different ways).

The barrier between Trieste (Italian - latin language) and Slovenia - is a linguistic one.

It used also to be economic (now Slovenia is part of the EU) and used also be a currency one (Slovenia now has the Euro).

However, just to the south of Trieste is Croatia (still outside EU and clearly, not a Euroland member).

So, the barriers are dropping around Trieste - but they have not all dropped yet!

Clearly, however, the tourist boom to the south of Trieste on the Croatian coast is a major economic benefit - not least because this makes Croatian border police less fussy and this encourages more traffic and trade.

Hence, with Croatia's EU membership application still proceeding, this represents a future barrier that will be removed.

Ljubljana, Slovenia too has 'connected' with Europe via currency and economic membership. However, it has two problems. Firstly, it doesn't have a motorway that connects the capital with Italy (but from my sightings yesterday, the missing sections will shortly be completed) and secondly, the motorway southward leads to non-EU Zagreb (which leads to non EU Serbia and then to Bulgaria).

Hence, the city will benefit from Croatian EU membership - just as much as Croatia and as Zagreb, Croatia connects to Budapest via motorway (which is complete as far as Hungary - but still missing a long stretch on the way to Budapest) so there will be a 'tax free' trade route for lorries and goods to pass this way.

Slovenia certainly deserves it's comparisions with Switzerland - it has a calm sophistication and appears far more prosperous that its neighbours. But I suspect that it needs the dynamism of its neighbours before it will really take off.

Which leads me to Zagreb in Croatia. This is a city to which I will return - but to follow the theme of borders - it's main border is religious - as Croatia is a predominantly Catholic country compared to the Orthodox Christianity and Muslim religions to the south.

This issues has been key in the make up (and on-going resolution) of the new countries that have (and still are) emerging from the old Yugoslavia.

Land title are key issues in Zagreb - as the country suffered depopulation of its Serbian population during the war of independence and hence investors need to proceed with caution. The ability to insure the land title may help.

Equally, Zagrab is still outside the EU and hence, fits into the Wild East section of investors portfolio - and finance for non-Croatians appears to still be a problem.

However, that won't stop the city booming and its prices jumping by our 200% in 5 year mark - it just makes it harder for non-Croatian investors to get a part of the action!

Please share any comments or insights on the potential of these locations (or recommend any others that you think will grow 200% in the next 5 years).

Many thanks
Neil

ps. Today I'm in Budapest - reveiwing why Property Secrets doesn't believe (yet) in this market... more to follow...



These three properous small cities -
POSTED BY NEIL LEWIS ON MON 23RD JULY AT 07:08 GMT
TAGS: Zagreb Property, Trieste Property, Slovenia Property, Ljubljana Property, Italy Property, Hungary Property, Croatia Property, Budapest Property
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THE PROBLEM WITH ITALY IS...ITALY!

NeilI was interested to read your thoughts on both Trieste and Verona as possible candidates for the 200% club.Not sure I'd agree, though - and even if I felt they may qualify, I don't think I'd put my money where my mouth was!The trouble with both locations is that they're in Italy! And, without putting too fine a point on it, Italy is in dire straits, possibly a great deal worse than many people realise. It's easy to miss the malaise - after all, the food's still the best in the world, the tourist spots idyllic (despite those pesky scorpions), and the culture and people are as magnetic and charming as always. The world's capital of fashion isn't in danger of going out of fashion anytime soon.But beneath the veneer there's a terrible battle taking place for the future of this economy between reformists and those who believe (as I read somewhere recently) that the state is a vast cow that can be milked endlessly.Without drastic reform, Italy's debt is going to sink its way of life in the not too distant future.While the creaking coalition government makes generally populist attempts to chip around the edges of ludicrous practices such as those that used to ban hairdressers from opening on a Monday, insisted that petrol stations were sighted certain distances apart to protect them from competition AND prevented supermarkets from selling non-prescription drugs, the real problem persists. The problem of Italy's gargantuan fiscal debt.There are no real signs as yet that there is an appetite for real competition in the market place, nor for reducing the massive pension burden by raising the retirement age to 60 (from 57, the lowest, I believe in the Western world), or for slashing red tape (and the number of bureaucrats) and the introduction of a truly modern tax system that drives and rewards Italians' undoubted entrepreneurship flair, instead of strangling it at birth.There is a chance - a slim chance - that the necessary reforms will take place in the next few years. And there is clearly at least a recognition in some parts of the political arena at least of what the problems are! But the jury is very definitely out at the moment and a long way from reaching even a majority decision on whether reform will come soon enough, if at all.Without big scale reform one of two things will happen, perhaps both:1) Italy will go to it's knees economically,2) It will be forced to abandon the euro (all these problems were dealt with in the past by devaluing the much missed lire).Until the signs are there that this structural reform is really underway, I personally wouldn't invest in Italian locations that are based on the country's economic well-being.BUT, if they do come, those structural reforms - slashed taxes, slashed spending and real competition - could unleash a truly vibrant and successful economy...after the initial pain, of course.Until then, I'd stick to those eternally appealing Italian tourist destination investments anyday.Unlike a sun location, a buy in, say, Tuscany, is not dependent on the fickle and price sensitive sun holiday market, commands a very high annualised yield and its capital growth will depend not so much on the Italian economy, but on that of the UK, the German , the Irish, the Dutch and America's, as well as others.I'd say the tussle over the fate of Alitalia will be a good indicator of whether Italy has the stomach for reform and is ready to face reality. On the day that the last potential bidder for the desperately ailing airline pulled out, citing unacceptable strings to the sale - one of which essentially insists that the over-staffing must continue - sections of the airline's personnel were on strike! Says it all really!Of course, as with much else in Italy, things are rarely as they seem. And it is widely believed that the government only allowed the stringent sale conditions to avoid conflict with the unions, and in the full knowledge that there would be no takers. Now it can turn to the unions with a greatly strengthened hand. A subtle tactic. Whether it will be too subtle and too slow remains to be seen.The same can be said for reform in Italy as a whole.BestRobin


POSTED BY ROBIN BOWMAN ON FRI 27TH JULY AT 09:41 Reply To Post
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Zagreb, Croatia - the secret of holiday investments?

Zagreb - the capital of Croatia, is a beautiful and fun city!

It claims to be the place where Central Europe and the mediterranean met and mix.

And, the city does represent both these sides of Europe.



It is expensive - average salaries in Croatia are 600 Euros per month vs 181 Euros per month in Bulgaria (obviously, Zagreb pays more and the white collar service jobs which concentrate in the capital pay much much more than the average).

And therefore Zagreb is more prosperous and what British and Irish investors might describe as more 'obviously european' - which really means that the city is more like a British city (with coffee shops and bars and pedestrianised disticts) than Sofia or Bucharest (for instance) which are developing very, very fast but from a different urban history.

But Zagreb is destined to enjoy a boom from Secret FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) just like Constanta will and Varna already is enjoying.

Here's why....

Zagreb, like Sofia and Belgrade, suffered hyper-inflation (see my blog on instant riches).

And, during this period, many middle class people living in Yugoslavia (and Zagreb in particular) saw that cash was no longer an effective investment.

Back in those 'Berlin Wall' days, Yugoslavia had a relatively free trading economy (ie it was not stuck behing the iron curtain and the Croatian and Slovenia parts of the country were allowed to trade with Western Europe).

But, local people had very few investment options. Pensions were non-existant, investment funds didn't really exisit and buying shares meant sending money abroad (ie all local firms were mainly privately held or state owned).

So, your middle class person typically had three options for their money

- savings (in the form of cash, usually stuffed under a matress)
- gold (which needed to be bought in hard currency and therefore not easy) or
- property (mainly holiday properties and land on the coast)

Therefore, in the 70's, a large number of Zagreb citizens bought land and property on the Croatian coast for next to nothing.

Over the next 5 to 10 years, this area will be developed and the riches will flow back to the citizens of Zagreb.

(If you follow Property Secrets investment advice you will know that in holiday locations we believe the money is made by the land owners and developers - not the poor foreigners who are sold holiday property dressed up as investment propety).

And, therefore, when the cash comes back to Zagreb it will be spent on nice new homes, smart cars and all the normal middle class desires and habits (including resturants and coffee bars).

All this adds up to Zagreb becoming a propety hotspot - and the best place for a Croatian investment.
It is also worth knowing that buying in cities makes surity of property title much easier. Although the local view is that with a good property lawyer, you should be able to establish the previous ownership and therefore title of any piece of land (including that on the coast). Any Croatian lawyers out there want to confirm this?
Cheers
Neil
ps. A side point - the fragmented nature of Croatian coastal land ownership is the most likely explanation of the lack of over-development (sorry, environmentalists, it is the economics which determines the landscape not the lobbyists).
Therefore, Croatian coastal property could reach sky high prices - due to lack of supply! Does this mean you should buy a Croatian holiday property? For holiday - yes. But for investment, no! Instead buy your investments in the city - Zagreb is the obvious candidate!
POSTED BY NEIL LEWIS ON SAT 11TH AUGUST AT 08:33 GMT
TAGS: Zagreb Property, Croatia Property
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  • Neil Lewis
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  • Noreen Lucey
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