Many believe to find the beginning of the end of the global recession, we need to look in the place it all began - the US housing market.

And there are definite, although tentative, signs that things are picking up - at last. New data published today reveals a jump of 11 per cent in sales of new homes - the sharpest rise in nine years and way above what pundits had forecast.

Is this then evidence that three years of price and sales falls are coming to an end? There is some way to go yet before the huge inventory of unsold property is anything like cleared. Even so, this is the clearest sign since the start of the US property crash that there is still a faint pulse in the market.

Signs of life exist elsewhere, too, as mortgage lending rises in the UK, as well as overall bank lending in the Eurozone, according to the European Central Bank.

Add to this more evidence that UK house prices are on the rise, and we have a body of evidence that suggests we are not going to see further falls in UK prices...maybe.

What about those UK property price rises though?

House prices were up for the first time in 17 months in June, led by gains in London, data from the Land Registry show.

The average price of a property in England and Wales was up a modest but significant 0.1 percent over the previous month - the first rise since the beginning of 2008, to £153,046 the registry says. Values in London rose 2 percent, with the biggest rise in the capital in
Hackney, where prices rose by 2.7 percent from May.

Hometrack figures showed that prices were steady for the third month in a row in July and Rightmove says the average asking price was up 0.6% in July.

According to Rightmove there are three possible outcomes for the property market: a 'Double Dip', a 'Steady State', or a 'Resurgence'.

That seems to us to cover pretty much every base.

The 'Double-Dip' scenario would see asking prices falling by 10% in the second half of the year to end 3% down overall in 2009, as mortgage lending remains tight, unemployment continues to rise, and many more repossessions come to market.

The 'Steady-State' scenario would see prices stay flat for the rest of the year, ending at around 7% up, as both mortgage availability and the number of sellers coming to market remain at historically subdued levels.

The 'Resurgence' scenario would see prices go up by a further 5%, ending the year 12% up, as buyer interest and mortgage availability pick up significantly while supply remains relatively constrained.

As Rightmove says, it's dangerous and difficult to forecast, especially in this market, but the double dip is starting to look less likely by the week. The Resurgence scenario also seems highly unlikely given the state of the economy, the prospect of higher taxes and rising unemployment.

Similarly, any resurgence is likely to be snuffed out by a rapid rise in supply, currently at very low levels as potential vendors are discouraged from entering a depressed market unless they have to.

The real magic ingredient for recovery, as we have argued before, is finance availability.

Even in an economy with high unemployment, it is possible to see stable property prices, even modestly rising ones, so long as widely affordable finance is available. So far, it isn't.

Maybe, though, we're seen the first tentative signs that it soon will be - in the shape of foreign banks being tempted into the UK residential lending. This represents a massive vote of confidence in a market (and an economy) written off by many - remember the cataclysmic words of investment guru, Jim Rogers? "It's simple, the UK has nothing to sell."

Interesting then that a financial colossus like the Bank of China - the world's third largest bank and one of the most cautious internationally - should choose such a basket-case country to try and grab market share by launching highly competitive mortgages, in fact some of the most competitive around. The bank, according to the FT, is aiming to become a household name in the UK, alongside HSBC and Barclays.

The BoC will offer loans of up to £1m with its tracker rates - offered to home buyers and buy-to-let borrowers - at 2.5 per cent above base rate, which is extremely attractive in the current market.

Other foreign lenders also see huge opportunity in the UK market, including Handelsbanken of Sweden and Israel's Leumi, both of which are said to be relaxing their previously tight lending criteria.

This is a direct challenge - albeit on a fairly small scale initially - to the UK's domestic lenders. Will they allow their market share to be eroded by these new kids on the block, or will they be forced by commercial realism to start lending competitively once again?

If so, then we could be witnessing the moment when the credit crunch starts to release its bite.

If that is the case, then we are almost certainly in for a Steady State scenario, with the prospect of capital growth in most locations weak for the foreseeable future and in which therefore yield will stay king.

But it wouldn't be at all surprising if we also start to see pockets of fast recovery and even modest capital growth in other areas, areas that will respond fastest to increased lending. And that brings us right back to quality locations.

"For the long-term investor, location is possibly more important than it has ever been. Quality locations equate to those areas that attract populations with high skill levels and which are seeing those populations expand. Clusters of excellence - cities as a whole, for sure, but more often now, areas within cities and areas around highly successful research universities that attract clusters of hi-tech and knowledge-based industries should be targeted."

The Homebuyer Property Investor Show 2008.

An interesting show this - one that doesn't seem entirely sure of its audience. Hence the slightly confusing full title - The Homebuyer Show and The property Investor Show 2008.

We don't have the official figures yet, but numbers appeared to most veteran show goers to be well down on previous years. Not surprising really given the amount of gloom in the UK market at least.

It's fair to say that speakers and exhibitors seemed to fall into three groups - those selling property related services; those effectively selling overseas locations; and those with a vested interest in being bullish on the UK property market.

As far as I could see the overseas location exhibitors sub-divided again (as they always do) - into:

1) Those appealing to serious investors looking for overseas growth markets and

2) Those offering holiday property locations with a bit of implied investment potential thrown in.

And it was the second category - the holiday home/investment location exhibitors that suffered most from the fall off in numbers.

Business was dead.

Again, not surprising really, considering this is probably the group we can say appeals to amateur investors - those who confuse investment with a dream home abroad. Nothing wrong with a holiday home, of course - but never confuse it with property investment.

People manning one particular stand plugging an especially hard to sell Med island holiday location were even seen virtually chasing passers by down the walkway!

So, what was left seemed to be a mixture of fairly hard-headed investors - those looking for serious opportunities in markets outside the UK in order to capture capital growth, and those who seemed to have a generally bullish view of the UK market in the long term. Most of the latter seemed to already be invested in the UK.

It was hard to find anyone out there who could pretend to be bullish on the UK market as of now.

Although probably about a third of those attending seminars addressing the issue said they'd be looking to buy in the UK in 2008, and roughly a third said they'd be holding.

Far, far fewer said they'd be selling. Quite what the others were planning is anyone's guess! They could probably be classed as floating voters.

So, in the light of this, one of the most interesting and best quality debates took place on the first day of the show and was packed - again, as we might expect, given the title: 'Is the UK Buy-to-let sector facing its Armageddon?'

The discussion panel consisted of Seamus Nugent of property developers Dandara, John Wrigglesworth, of Wrigglesworth Ltd, Ray Boulger of John Charcol, David Austin of Property for Life and Neil Lewis, our own CEO.

Much of what the panel said about the fundamentals of the UK property market were actually quite similar.

And, while Neil Lewis appeared to be the only bear on the panel, Neil I think would be the first to admit that he wasn't writing off the UK market, but talking about where the best opportunities lay over the next 24 months or so. And that isn't in the UK.

The rest of the panel unanimously saw 2008 as a time of opportunity - a time to buy in the UK. Only some 30% or so of the audience agreed with them, as a show of hands proved at the end of the seminar.

John Wrigglesworth described himself as at the optimistic end of the spectrum. While there was certainly a slowdown in the UK property market, the fundamentals of the market were the same as ever - it was just that funding had dried up.

(But isn't funding one of the fundamentals of a property market?)

John saw a huge distinction between the US and the UK markets and blamed the 'stupidity of the international market who can't tell the difference between the US and UK.

'People are not stretched in terms of affordability. This is not a structural economic problem,' and 'sense would prevail by the end of the year.'

(And yet, again, this is about sentiment, isn't it? And isn't sentiment as much an economic fundamental as any other factor? )

'Rents are rising because of affordability problems, prices are weak, yields are rising. This is a great opportunity to buy.

'And the credit criteria is only going back to where it was three years ago.'

Seamus Nugent essentially agreed with the view that the 'fundamentals in the UK are strong' and that the market there cannot be compared to those in Ireland or Spain where huge oversupply had taken place.

In fact, Seamus saw aspects of the credit crunch on the BTL market in the UK as positive. 'There were people who wanted to get into BTL with no money down. They're gone. Good!

'It is harder to get products for BTL, but there are deals for people who have the wherewithal.

'There are hotspots and there are places that are doing less well.

'But property investment is a long term punt, not a short term one.'

Now, where've we heard that before?

Seamus cited the fact that the UK was experiencing net immigration of 300,000 a year, that single households are set to double, supply is low and there will be increasing rental demand as well as affordability being a problem as great reasons to invest in the UK.

'30% to 40% of people rent in Europe. In the UK it's 10%. We'll move to the European model.'

And in the short term the view was that the banks would recover and lending criteria would ease after a period.

'Don't worry about the banks. Look at them - they're reducing risk AND raising the fees they charge.'

David Austin, of Property for Life, believed the UK was now a 'buying opportunity' and that the market would 'pick up by the end of the year.'

'We've got overbuild in some city centres, but land supply is drying up.

Developers have slowed their land buying programmes and the cost of building itself is going up. There are great discounts now, but they won't be around for long. Developers will stop building.

'The lack of supply makes me bullish long term.'

Ray Boulger, of John Charcol, gave an interesting insight into how the mortgage market was reacting to the credit crunch.

'Affordability is a problem for first time buyers.'

Talking of BTL mortgage products, Ray added: 'What we're seeing a lot of is that fees are being used to make up for a lack of rental cover on mortgages.

So, you might get a rate of 4.99%, but a 3% fee - and the rental required by the lender is based, of course, on the interest rate.

'But there are still deals out there suitable for most people.

'Lots of lenders will lower their LTVs by 10% - but that is purely for new build flats, not for houses.

'The government has insisted on density levels, so we are seeing over supply of flats in some areas - an example of the government interfering with the market.

'The mortgage market will get worse before it get better. But it's a great time to put in cheeky bids, look for distressed sellers and be unsentimental.

'Meanwhile, keep an eye on three month libor - that's key. It's usually around 0.16% above he base rate during the initial phase of the credit crunch it went to 1% above. Now it's 0.6% above. This is a good indication of the way the markets are moving.'

So, what makes Property Secrets and Neil Lewis in particular the bear among these bulls?

Neil's point was simple: it'll get a lot worse before it gets better.

'I don't think the UK economy is sound. 10,000 jobs are expected to go in the City . Two thirds of estate agents will be out of a job by the end of the year.

'Mortgages have dropped 31% for home buyers - but for BTL it was up as investors draw down on their mortgages to complete on new builds.

'The accurate reflection of the market are the figures for homebuyers NOT for investors.

'This is a sentiment driven phenomenon and that negative sentiment is having a very REAL negative impact.

'We've had nine to twelve months of negative sentiment and we're going to have more. My advice - steer clear of the UK market for at least the next 12 months.

'If the UK economy can maintain its attractions (to migrants), it'll be fine. In ten years we'll probably all agree.

'But, because I can see that the economy is going to get worse before it gets better I can also see that the discounts are going to get better probably in 12 months time.

'If you look at Spain, it is losing jobs and fast. Spain is not having a credit crunch, it's having a rapid slowdown of its economy.

'If you're in the UK market now and rents are going up - then hold on.
'But in the future we think we'll see a kite mark on mortgages - there'll be good and poor quality.

'Be careful, because that portfolio of 20 terraces in a northern city are going to be the sub prime properties of the future and rates will be higher for these properties.

'If you take the long term view, then maybe none of this matters - but the best opportunities are elsewhere over the next 24 months.'

And as the news out of the US and UK gets grimmer by the day, surely Neil's view is increasingly hard to argue against.

No one is seriously disputing the long term trend in the UK market or about the UK property market's fundamentals. So, the answer to the question posed to the panel is 'NO, the UK BTL market is NOT facing Armageddon.'

BUT the economic reality is what is going to influence the property market over the next year or so - not long term fundamentals.

So, whose view do you subscribe to on the UK market?

Buy, hold or sell?