Neil - I agree all you say about getting into markets at the right time. The last ten years have been very good in most countries, mainly because of falling interest rates and increasingly easy credit. This trend is now going into reverse and my view is that the next ten years will be far more difficult. The trend will be one of stagnation in property prices. The question is, of course, whether there are markets that will significantly buck that trend. It seems to me it is not inevitable that Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Croatia, Ukraine etc will necessarily see very good further growth. The best may be behind us. Nor will Germany automatically do well just because it is cheap. I too am chasing that ideal new market. My property portfolia is held entirely in Poland. However, I am beginning to wonder if the fundamentals may not in fact now be better in South America? (eg Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil) Could that be the place for the next 200% growth investment? Any thoughts? Stephen Barnes

Hi Stephen Thanks - yes, we are starting to consider Latin America - I think it is the next natural region once Eastern Europe has delivered its growth - but I still think it is in the wait and see mode. For instance, there is a lot of interest in this region from Spain (due to history and language) and from our Spanish office we are considering these countries - but none strike us a obvious or immediate candidates. I am particularly concerned by the selling of the Brazilian beach - I think this offers a great profit for the land holders (and agents) - but dreadful for off plan investors (another version of the Bulgarian coast in my view - where investors can't sell for years). But, there will be some Latin American cities that benefit. The big risk in many Latin American countries are a) availability of finance b) size of country (ie will it be overlooked by FDI) c) currency and debt risks ... I have read the view that the region is sorting out its democratic credentials and this will make it more attractive than Asia (where Thailand has reversed the recent trend) etc... So, we're open to this possibility - but on our initial reading - we think it is still too early. Nevertheless, what you say about credit is true - and will affect all markets - which means I guess we should focus only on the strongest - and I think you can be a cautious investor in Central Eastern Europe and still find excellent growth opportunities. Cheers Neil

Neil Thanks for that. I agree with you. It may be too early for South America and that there is more to squeeze nearer home if careful. Particularly agree about avoiding beach and non-core property. The Property Secrets strategy of concentrating on meeting the needs of local populations in sizeable cities is, I am sure, the best and safest one. In contrast, the demand for beach type property is very fickle and could well fall away quite fast if the world economy goes through a difficult patch and the cost of credit increases. I really don't know where all the buyers (and renters) are to come from for beach type apartments in Bulgaria, Morocco, Turkey, Montenegro etc...and indeed Spain and, as you say, Brazil. The World has a lot of beach! Stephen