Whilst looking at these forcasts it is vital to look at the source; in this case the data comes from the National Housing Association, not exactly independent, but rather an institution with vested interest in bouying up the housing market. A rather desperate attempt in my view. Only time will tell who is right and wrong. However I am firmly on the side of the balance of public perception, reflected by the increasing number of negative press articles. Spreading subprime woes and massive exiting of property funds are just a sign of the sentiment change, that trickle will turn into a surge. The fall in Ireland has already begun with indications of 2.6% drop in prices. http: / /firstrung .co .uk /articles .asp?pageid=NEWS &articlekey=7001 &cat=44 -0 -0 In some of my previous posts you will see that I said that the UK property falls would be preceeded by falls in Ireland. I stick by this statement.

Hi Richard I think the point of the article is not that prices are going to rise in the UK by 40% in the next five years or whether they will rise by less or more, or even fall back in the short term. It was pointing out that such forecasts are relatively cheap and very rarely right, and they can be fairly evenly disregarded when you view the long term arguments for UK property investment, which are far more important - the Barker Report, supply and demand models, etc. And, just to point out that you are quite right about sources. However, you should, I think, always distinguish between those who CITE info and those who produce it. In this case the NHF didn't produce the forecasts - Oxford Economics did. NHF was citing the findings to make its own point. Whether you agree with the NHF's views or not has nothing to do with what the forecast is saying. Cheers

Your so right half the time you get these big headlines taking facts out of context to make a story which invariably is not an accurate represntation of the original source. Sharon

Richard, in actual fact it's the National Housing Federation - which represents housing associations in the UK. They have no vested interest whatsoever in talking up the market - they are pressing for more social housing to be built. Whether the research (carried out by another body) is correct is a different issue. Huw