i've just read your latest report on the debt bomb. Whilst it is well written it hasn't acknowledged the main point that some of the main contributors have been putting forward this week. That point is the fact that the US, UK and Irish economies have been doing well mainly becuase the banks have allowed us all to feel rich from the property boom that in part thier looser lending has allowed. Surely the point is that when eventually the banks are forced to 'call time' as inevitably they must then there is a significant chance that the upward spiral goes into a reverse spiral. Houses go down in value - slowly perhaps to start with, but then this feeds through to less new kitchens, conservatories etc which it turn leads to less cars being sold, people being laid off etc etc. It is this impact on the fundamentals of the economy that is under discussion, but your piece has not responded to that point. It has merely stated that we have a strong economy currently and that the fundamentals are and will be fine.

Neil, Remember all the Swiss Franc and euro denominated loans in the boom economies of Latvia and Poland, where there is considerable risk and obvious overheating. The Czech Rep and Slovakia are far safer as loans there are in crowns

Yes, agreed, the 7 year argument seems to get trotted out a bit too frequently and using as if it is gospel is a bit of a dangerous thing to do. Whats the FSA line in a lot of prospectuses ('past returns are not necessarily representative of future returns') The past 60 years since WW2 have seen a lot of development in the financial markets and there has been a great run of low interest interest rates and UK economic growth which has meant the last 7 years have been kind. Although the long run it is still possible that this trend will continue I'd confidently take a pretty hefty bet that UK prices won't double in next 7 years.:) - Wage growth 3-4% a year - Interest rates not exactly heading down in a hurry - Buyers already stretched

There are many reasons for the current high value of the Hungarian Forint, factors contributing to it include the appreciation of the Slovak crown, the weakening of domestic political tensions, favourable domestic and regional macroeconomic reports and high interest rates on financial assets denominated in Hungarian forints. However the primary reason is due to specutation of the abolition of the central parity and the intervention band (implying a switch to free floating currency). However this has effectively been ruled out now - and yet the currency has remained high. Good news is the order of the day, with a increase in not only consumer confidence, but business also see the below graph. http: / /gki .hu /pictures /506 _en _1 .gif Although the spending reforms will have a negative impact in terms of wage growth for the next few years, it is the overall picture that people see. The public perception is that it has to happen and that its a good thing. The understanding that it is a short term growing pains to overcome. So in conclusion I do not see the Hungarian currency falling heavily due to internal factors, economically things are on the up, interest rates will fall a little thank god - a real boon to the economy, wages will fall in the short term - but employement will rise. However if the Slovakian currency were to fall then yes it would drag the Hungarian currency down with it a little. The realisation that the Hungarian currency will not be floated freely does not seem to have resulted in a big fall - as a result I dont see it happening prior to EMU adoption. As business and consumer confidence in Germany rise, so too will Hungarian mentality. As with all things its vital to work with CURRENT data - and my knowledge is up to date. As to my interpretation of it ..... well time will tell.

That is a very interesting programme. Thanks for posting it here. Does anyone know of any ways in which one might profit from a downturn in the Irish property market? I read a suggestion recently of short-selling on the Bank of Ireland.