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FT Article on 'property crash'
jay (PRO Member) Bring it on
Posted: Dec 2 06 15:25
Total Posts: 15
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Fully agree. very good summation of the market. The issue for me tho' continues to be that when you use the PS spreadsheet to calculate capital growth as well as your cash position year on year then at a 5% capital growth per annum, a 3% pa rental increase and a 4.0% yield (that's the Max I get on my 41 strong London portfolio at current prices) then the annual rental shortfall verses costs wipes out even the geared capital growth. The only thing that will alter this equation is if house prices rise at over 5% p.a (PS recently said 4% - 5% was thier best guess) and / or rents rise much quicker (but a 25% rise in rents for instance only gets you an extra 1% yield!) I'm not selling my portfolio for various reasons - including hanging on for taper releif but equally I'm not adding to it in a big way for the above reasons. Actually I'm hoping for a big crash - say 20%, that suits me because it will push more people into the rental sector and out of the purchase sector which will restore the yields and make the BTL market work again and I'll end up with 80 flats! Bring it on!

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will (PRO Member) Boom Bust
Posted: Dec 2 06 17:12
Total Posts: 32
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Jay Your London yields seem a little low. I have a number of flats in London myself, a mixture of good period and recent/new build. I see about 5.5% yield on average and that takes in Docklands to Chelsea. I'm with you on the hope for a 20% fall as I'd be adding to my portfolio big time. I'm in for the long haul - a further 10 -15 years minumum so short and mid term wobbles are irrelevant. Good luck to all

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minsk (PRO Member) buy or hold
Posted: Dec 3 06 18:55
Total Posts: 47
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Its seems that most people here agree that they will hold on to their UK property through any pullback in the market. They are in it for the long run. However, would you continue to buy more buy to let property in the current market climate? That was my original point. I would be inclined not to. But then - I haven't read the books.

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Chris (PRO Member) Buy or hold
Posted: Dec 3 06 22:25
Total Posts: 31
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yes, but only if you can get below market value, and only in areas of above average market growth/strong rental. Its finding the right areas in the UK, and I dont think they are easy to find, unless you get a winner at auction. Thats why I think most people (incl. me) are looking at emerging markets.

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