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| Munich Expo 2007 - what will it tell us about residential investment strategies? |
Posted: Oct 8 07 16:04
Total Posts: 299
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Lots to report from the first day here at Expo Real in Munich and an insight discussion will follow soon.
Meanwhile, here's my Quote of The Day:
'Things that took several years to happen in Poland take just months in Romania.
'In terms of market expansion, in just one year in Romania, we've done what it took five years to do in Poland. This is a much more dynamic market.'
Claudius Ferentz, Head of the Romanian Branch of Investkredit Bank AG, Vienna
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Posted: Oct 8 07 16:10
Total Posts: 139
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Hi Robin
Yep, I agree - this is a great indicator of just how dynamic the Bucharest and Romanian markets are.
Clearly, this is one of the fastest moving markets anywhere in the world at the moment.
I'm still absorbing the quotes
"land prices have doubled in 12 months"
and
"construction costs have risen 40%"
... the implication for this is that developers will start to tread a little more cautiously - as they are very unsure of the final profit margins ... and that will lead to a slow down in development - it will still grow, but perhaps it will grow at a more sustainable pace...
... the good news for investors is that there is no let in demand for residential investment and that this prices increases for the developers will mean that there is less supply brough to the market.
That means, less competition for residential developments and therefore higher prices...
Good news for residential investors - even if it is at the expense of some developers.
Cheers
Neil
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Posted: Oct 8 07 19:20
Total Posts: 16
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Neil - That is good news for investors indeed and in line with what you advised around July. I bought in the Citadella development and I have been noticing quite a lot of developments coming onto the market which made me concerned about a risk of over supply if the pace od development continues. However your comments about land prices and construction costs would indicate that there is not a high risk of oversupply depressing the market.
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Posted: Oct 8 07 22:40
Total Posts: 139
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Hi Brett
It is pretty tough to call this one - but my gut feeling is that the total development in Bucharest is still very small compared to the overall size of the city, its density and the increase in demand/population.
My instincts tells me this city could survive many many more developments before demand is dampened...
... and therefore, any slowing down of development is only going to accelerate the price growth even further...
Cheers
Neil
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Posted: Oct 9 07 08:38
Total Posts: 217
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Hello Neil
From what you've seen so far in the expo, what are the latest news regarding german property and the forecast regarding the german market ?
Cheers
Claude.
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