Hi Robin

I had the pleasure of catching the second half of the panel debate and was impressed with the quality of the discussion.

Whilst I agreed with the panelists (and particularly) Seamus' argument of the long term view for the UK market however there is increasing evidence that more investors are leaving the market than investing in it.

I read today that the UK lettings portal Ezylet.co.uk found that some 19% of BTL investors would sell their UK property and purchase overseas should interest rates rise too high in 2008.

In addition to this, Savills Research revealed from its survey of 400 UK BTL investors (with 2,782 properties valued at £600m) that many would be prepared to buy overseas should pressure on returns increase.

I think this reflects the decline in confidence in the UK property sector.

On the other hand, there will be investors who can take advantage of the number of landlords leaving the market. There will be opportunities for those that can secure below market deals however I think this is the realm of the very savvy investor or professional property investor who has the time and resources to source these property types through auctions or off -market.

There's no doubt there are better markets that are currently giving greater returns that investors can be investing in at the moment.

Good panel discussion though

Noreen

Hi Noreen

Yes, it was a good quality debate.

But what struck me was that a number of the panelists concentrated solely on the underlying mechanics of the UK market - immigration, structural shortage of properties, splintering households, etc - great, sure, for the long term.

But, and it's a big but - how does that make NOW a great time to buy?

I say this because I don't think anyone - really not anyone - can sensibly say they can be confident that the downturn in the West won't get worse before it starts to pick up. And it's this economic (yes, the credit crisis is now affecting economies), that will drive property markets over the next year to 18 months.

The US is almost certainly already in recession - it will be very, very hard for the UK not to be dramatically affected. First in, I suggest, first out. I think we'll see recovery in the US economy before we see it elsewhere.

That doesn't mean everywhere will be affected equally by any means - just that no where will be immune. Spain is in serious, serious trouble, for example. So is Italy, but for different reasons.

And yet, when we look at many of the CEE economies we can see that their strength (let's leave out the Baltics!), going into this rough period will mean a slowdown, but not a sharp fall in growth.

So, the point is this - longer term the UK fundamentals are sound - but why invest in the eye of uncertainty?

The adage goes that you're supposed to buy when there's blood on the streets. Well, there isn't yet blood on the UK's streets, so now is not the opportunity.

And if this is as bad as it gets, as most of the panel (bar Neil) was suggesting, then 2008 will be seen in hindsight as a false opportunity to buy in the UK, or at best , only a slight one.

I've also never subscribed to the blood on the streets adage. I think the US economy (and property market) will probably pick up in a year or two - and the UK's too. But I'd much rather avoid the blood on the streets and start looking to buy only when I can hear the ambulances are on the way!

Good advice, as long as you are out there listening for ambulances and when you hear them you can outrun them and the road infront isn't blocked with everyone trying to do the same thing.

You also need to have a very strong relationship with the A&E Team so that you get priority treatment or you'll be left at the back of the queue wishing you hadn't got caught up in the backlog.


:-)

Yep - this is the critical discussion - and I think one where we'll all be moving position as the economic issues unfold in the run up to the summer.

My view - currently - is that the UK is facing a bleak 3 year period of falling (moderate falls) employment.

I don't believe the UK property market will grow over this period.

Therefore, any deal you source in the UK would have to be really really good to be worth holding through a 3 year bleak deal.

Probably any property you already own is worth holding - because things will turn up strongly when the up term comes.

Probably - you'd be better to wait 12 months before investing anything new into the UK market.

As things stand - that's my take on the market. I know that Richard Davies has a even more bleak view as do some other commentators.

Cheers
Neil