So Huw says that the Bratislava ratio is 360:1000, which should make it a good bet, but Anna says that it is 460 which just average!

That highlights the problems with the statistical approach:
1. Are the statistics accurate?
2. Are they relevant?
3. Are they complete? (i.e. are there other relevant statistics being overlooked)

The answer is pretty clearly "Not complete" to no.3 and may well be "No" to 1 & 2.

I agree - it's a big difference but I've seen the stats I quoted mentioned regularly over the past couple of years. Anna where did your stats come from?
Huw

Incidentally, my stats came from here when I looked them up to respond to this thread:

http: / /vestaland .com /Slovakia _property _information .htm

I've found the same stats quoted elsewhere and lots of comments similar to this:

Laurie Farmer, founder of the Bratislava-based Spiller Farmer real estate consultancy, told The Slovak Spectator in an earlier interview that if Slovakia wanted to catch up with the EU average of 400 apartments per 1,000 people (2000), it needed to build 25,000 apartments per year. Yet according to official figures, Slovakia completed just 14,863 apartments in 2005. At the current pace of housing construction, Slovakia could still be 135,000 apartments behind the EU average by 2010.

This from Encyclopedia Britannica

A housing shortage continues to be one of the most severe problems affecting the country. In addition, many of the urban high-rise housing estates dating from the 1970s are badly in need of repair. In the cities and towns, almost all housing units are supplied with electricity, water, and bathrooms. Housing in some rural areas is considerably inferior.

The consensus does appear to be that demand exceeds supply.
Huw

This discussion seems to focus very much on ratios in comparison to other countries. That may turn out to be relevant in the long term but one of the key factors in the short and medium term is who is doing the buying?

I have 2 centrally located properties in Bratislava and have a number of contacts both in Bratislava (and Kosice) and from what I can determine it is still foreigners coming over and buying these higher priced properties NOT the locals. I imagine it is the same for the new builds.

All these stats aren't very relevant if the properties we are discussing are out of reach of the locals.

Whilst owner occupation is very high in many of these countries the reason is not because they have an inherent mentality which makes them want to own their own property - as in the uk, but rather they were given them by the failed state.

These factors make the true market very difficult to read and certainly the type of stats being discussed in this forum may not be very relevant for the segment of the market we are all focussed on.

Hi Huw,

My figures come from the statistical offices and European Mortgage Federation Stats for countries and from Reas (cities’ level). Some of the rates I calculated myself using the method used by statistical offices (housing stock/ population). Please note that when calculating the rate ALL dwellings are taken into account despite their condition.

My data refer to 2006. I see you quoting older data and that is probably one of the reasons of differences. EU average is for example 458/ 1,000 population in 2006.

360/1,000 population is the rate for Slovakia, not Bratislava.

Housing stock in Slovakia: 1,954, 938
Population in Slovakia: 5,447, 500
Rate: 360/ 1,000 population

Bratislava:
Stock: 193,000
Population: 426,000
Rate: 453/ 1,000 population

The bottom line is there’s significant housing shortage in most of the CEE countries and in fact the highest is in Slovakia and Poland. However focusing only on the rates dwellings/1,000 population is misleading as they don’t indicate demand, they indicate statistical housing shortage only.

The demand could be identify by making assessment of demographic factors (population growth, household size and structure, migration, etc) combined with the housing condition and age and shortage plus affordability.

Sofia and Bratislava have average rates of dwelling per 1,000 population, but look at their growing population and the fact that around 70% of their housing stocks are panelaks.

Anna

In Hungary a huge regeneration project of district 8 is well under way (Corvin development) - including 2500 new apartments of which 70-80% are selling to locals.

The project I purchased into the ratio is 50% locals 50% foreigners primarily because it was heavily marketed internationally due to its location along the office corridor on vaci ut.

Another interesting indicator - over the last few years a huge amount of office space has come onto the market place however the DEMAND is outstripping supply.

And what do international workers need aside from somewhere to work?

Nice new apartments to rent.

The fundamentals are strong despite the political woes.

Actually Chiefjuju my information and impression is that there is very substantial demand from locals for property in the centre of Bratislava. There's certainly enough local money to support what is a very small market.

Richard, Hungary is the worst CEE country to invest in currently - exactly how many Irish and Brit owned off plan apartments are vacant and unlet at the moment?
Huw

Huw,

How many times do I need to say it ... im in this for a 5 yr investment. You buy when sentiment is at its lowest point or just after, - as sentiment is rising to the upside.

In specific terms, if you buy into the best locations - where there will be demand in the future, maybe in a regeneration area. Then you know property prices are not going to fall.

Why is Hungary the best place to invest for the long term now?

Like for like properties in Budapest are 15-20% cheaper than anywhere else in EU. Thus it is a undervalued market. Not only that but commodity costs are pushing up development costs, developers are saying purchase prices will have to increase by 20% by the end of 2009 just to offset the rise in costs. That doesnt factor in credit crunch costs, nor the tax changes that have hit developers hard.

There is currently an oversupply of apartments - but this oversupply will be mopped due to the big drop in supply that will take place this year and next year. Very few residential projects will be undertaken over the next several years. Whilst at the same time we have a huge increase of office space - THAT IS BEING LET (demand outstripping supply even).

Savvy you are wrong about Hungary.

Hey, what did I say about Hungary? Don't know anything about it! Sounds alright to me. I find your posts on Hungary interesting Richard and don't believe I have contributed to this discussion as I don't have anything useful to say on the matter.

OK, I hold my hands up - it's me who's wrong on Hungary. Or maybe not........

Incidentally Richard comparisons of prices between EU capitals are irrelevant. Just look at Germany, which some people have been talking up on this basis for years.
Huw