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| Supermarkets ... and key signs |
Posted: Jul 9 07 15:32
Total Posts: 153
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Hi All
For my sins... I'll be taking a 3 week road trip around central and south eastern Europe this summer.
I'll be writing a daily blog to share my experiences as we travel through 8 countries and 13 cities.
The questions I'll be asking myself are 'how is the middle class doing' and 'where are the jobs being created' etc...
One of the key rules of thumbs that I'll use will be Supermarkets!
There is view that the Supermarket was the beginning (cause or effect I don't know - but a key signal either way) of a growing middle class in the US.
The Supermarket put a wide range of goods (ie stimulating desire and consumerism) at prices up to 50% less than rural grocery stores.
Therefore, the Supermarket both released discretionary spend AND gave people something to spend their 'free' money on.
So, I'll be counting supermarkets as we travel around.
Another favourite of mine is Cranes (although this works in some countries - such as Spain - it works less well in the UK where cranes are used mainly for tall office buildings).
Another favourite is advertising (I'll be looking out for new build property adverts) and so on.
I also think an abundance of 'middle ranking' business hotels is a good sign too. (ie in Belgrade - there are two grand old palaces and just a few business hotels - bad sign).
Does anybody else have key signs or signals that they look for when assessing new locations?
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Posted: Jul 10 07 08:35
Total Posts: 45
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Hi Neil,
Enjoy your trip.
My key signs are the usual American Embassies, i.e. McDonalds and Donald Trump..... both signs of disposable income pouring in especially when a hamburger may cost 50% of a week's local salary!!!!
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Posted: Jul 10 07 09:22
Total Posts: 153
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Thanks Pauline
Yes - the great Burgernomics of The Economist fame.
I guess you know the other one about McDonald's? It was the Golden Arches theory of International Relations?
Essentially it said that if there was a McDonald's resturant in the country - that that country would not go to war.
It held true for a while - until bombs started to land on Serbia.
So, there is double significance in searching for McDonald's in Belgrade.
Cheers
Neil
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Posted: Jul 10 07 11:46
Total Posts: 30
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dont forget the Starbucks type chains, quality car dealerships springing up and what people are wearing on the street and so on....
will be interesting to read your blogs Neil...
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Posted: Jul 10 07 11:54
Total Posts: 153
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Thanks Chris
yes - I'll be doing an Audi Q7 count too - which is a useful thing to do when driving down the motorways!
Cheers
Neil
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Posted: Jul 20 07 13:43
Total Posts: 153
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Hi all
Just to let you know - our blog 'Max Growth' is now live at http: / /www .propertysecrets .net /blogs /max _growth/ and I'll be updating this as I travel around Central and South Eastern Europe in the next 3 weeks.
Simon Tweddle - our chief analyst - and now based in Prague will also be contributing.
You are welcome to post comments to the posts and join a debate!
The aim of the club is to come up with a list of cities that will deliver 200%+ growth in the NEXT 5 years....
... just as I have seen Valencia, Spain deliver that kind of growth in the past 5 years.
Please feel free to make your case.
Cheers
Neil
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Posted: Jul 20 07 15:53
Total Posts: 19
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I think looking at the cars is a good indicator. Another one for me is to get a feeling in the country for what the people are like. Do they seem hardworking and honest, is their quality of service very good. Countries that do well in this respect will surely receive more foreign direct investment. Granted this is not a very quantifiable indicator but I still think it is important. Im writing from Slovenia at the moment where the people seem very good to deal with which in turn makes me quite curious about their property market. I think I am a step ahead of you Neil on your journey because I travelled here from Milan. If you are still in Milan you want to get yourself to the Nivigli district for a meal. Very good for al fresco dining.
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