Poland has access to credit and its outlook is stable says Fitch
09 April 2009


Poland retains access to good debt financing options and its rating outlook is stable, rating agency Fitch's Emerging Europe department head David Heslam says.

"Financing options for the government remain good relative to many regional peers," Heslam believes. "The government continues to be able to raise domestic finance and has proved continued access to international markets with the January 2009 Eurobond issuance," The Warsaw Voice reported

If necessry, Poland could also use other sources of credit, like the European Investment Bank or the IMF.

Poland's public debt is forecast to increase to 50% of the GDP during 2009.

"We forecast general government debt [public debt - PAP] to increase to 50% of GDP in 2009 (47.1% in 2008), reflecting both the wider deficit and impact on ratios of slower nominal GDP growth and weaker zloty," Heslam said.

"[O]n current forecasts Poland's government debt/GDP ratio is not expected to deviate significantly from the median for sovereigns rated in the 'A' range," he added.

The current economic climate, though, could delay Poland's ERM2 entry, which would have a knock on delay to the country joining the eurozone.

"2013 is increasingly looking like a more probable euro adoption date," Heslam said.
"Recent government statements hint at increasing flexibility in the official euro adoption timetable."

"From a rating perspective, any upgrade directly related to euro adoption would not occur until six months or so before actual euro adoption, following a formal decision by EcoFin," he added.

OFT

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