Now is the time to buy overseas property. This has been a popular line for the last 2 years, one that was harder than many thought it would be to sell in 2009, but has been getting a lot easier for the last 12-18 months. With many reports of markets bottoming, could 2012 be the first year of the real global property recovery?
Dubai property crashed, Spanish property crashed, American property crashed, British property crashed, and there were many more crashes around the world, if none as dramatic as the aforementioned trio. Immediately bargains became available in those markets, but it didn't immediately become the right time to buy property there for foreigners.
In Spain, more property had been built during the boom than in France, Germany and Italy put together and now with no one buying there were millions of homes in overstock. At the same time Spain's problem with corruption in the property market was taking centre stage as millions of Brits joined buyers from around the world in having their properties taken away because they had been illegally built for one reason or another.
In a similar situation to Dubai, those caught up in the Spanish property frauds were innocent victims, but their pain could have been spared had they done sufficient research. People were still buying in Dubai long after well respected regional investment bank EFG Hermes had pointed out the developing problem with oversupply.
In America millions upon millions of people, Americans and those who had bought from around the world lost their homes to repossession. In Britain the repossession problem was as bad, but obviously the numbers were a lot smaller. The American crash started in 2006 and worsened throughout 2007 when the British housing market began to fall. Both were in a drastically ill state by the end of 2008.
These crashes almost completely abolished buying overseas property, there was barely a sale anywhere at the end of 2008 and into 2009. The buyers that arose like phoenix from the flames were a savvier bunch who would not fall prey to any such fates as those who had lost out so badly before them.
Spanish property prices might be low, but were they as low as they were going to be, American repossessions might be cheap but they may not be a bargain. The new breed of overseas property buyer did their homework, but thankfully they did start to buy.
At the beginning of 2009, there was talk of Spanish property having only fallen 5-10 percent according to the government index, despite agents reporting falls of between 20 and 40 percent in some of the worst hit areas. We started to hear reports sales activity, but only when developers offered discounts of 20%. At the same time buying distressed properties in America began to take off, and there were even reports of Irish buyers buying in Portugal. Sales have been increasing gradually ever since.
Now, we have reports that Spanish property prices have hit bottom. We have heard it many times before but evidence is mounting that this is for real. Andalucia-based property search agent Barbara Wood reports prices at bottom and savvy investors picking up properties at the right price. Wood cites the example of Vera, a development in Almeria province. The units started life at €168,000. After the developer folded, a Spanish bank took them on and halved the price. But only now, with another 35% off at around €55,000, are they selling.
In America we hear reports of foreign investors arriving in Atlanta by the bus load and buy, buy, buying up units, but again, only units at the right price. American property was first being sold at below market value like everywhere else, but value was sliding so fast, and so varied across the country, that investors didn't feel safe that the properties really were below market value. To combat this sellers began selling at prices relational to build replacement cost.
The story of bus-loads covered WMI Capital, which is marketing refurbished repos, with 2 bedroom townhouses being sold at under Ł40k with tenants in place, and rental management as part of the agreement, it is easy to see the appeal. There are similar reports coming from towns and regions across the state of Florida, where property is available at up to 60% below its replacement build cost, so again the bargains and the investment potential are undeniable.
In Britain the situation is complicated. Prices fell in 2007 and 2008 with up to 20% coming off the national average, and more coming off certain areas. But the national average rose again in 2009, and stagnated in 2010. We have record low interest rates, but the majority of first time buyers can't afford the 10% deposit. This is leading to record rental demand, fuelling rising rents and occupancy, and leading to increasing sales from investors. But even with this, prices are either falling or stagnating most everywhere outside of London and the south.
In Dubai there have been very few signals of hope, but even there we have heard reports that prices just can't go any lower. Still the oversupply remains a huge problem, and of the markets that crashed Dubai still looks furthest from recovery.
At the same time we have the emerging markets like Turkey, which are showing exceptional growth in these trying times. According to the Turkish Association of Real Estate Investors (GYODER), foreign sales of Turkey property grew 40% in 2010. PriceWaterHouseCoopers have listed Istanbul as the world's top city for property investment in 2009 and 2010, and all signs point to even further growth in sales to foreigners this year.
In Brazil there is the weakness of the lack of mortgage finance to foreigners, but even there we are hearing of exceptional demand from foreign investors. Investors are particularly keen on buying into affordable housing developments in 2nd tier cities like Sao Paulo and Natal, where growing affluence and the shortage of quality housing and mortgages is fuelling incredible rental demand.
There are many more success stories around the world but it boils down to this. Crashing markets saw respite in 2009 fuelled by government stimuli. Everyone thought 2010 would be even better but instead it added another year to the crash, and 2011 a third in most markets. So, with between 2 and 3 years of falling and stagnating prices, investors are giving reports of bottom more benefit from doubt than they have before. This is opening up possibilities, and research is finding opportunities. All the signs say point to 2012 being the first year of the real global property recovery.




