Analysts at banking giant HSBC report that the Polish economy is the best prepared in the region to weather the global economic downturn.
The bank's Global Economics 2009 report suggests the Polish economy has especially solid foundations that mean it stands out among its regional neighbours.
The bank's influential report examines all European economies and offers economic forecasts for the coming year - and the 2009 report offers some grounds for optimism.
While data analysed by HSBC suggest Poland will be the least damaged by the downturn, the prospects are especially gloomy for Ukraine, which is forecast to be the hardest hit, suffering not only a political crisis but a possibly a huge GDP contraction of -9%.
Russian and Hungary are also forecast to see negative GDP growth of around -2%.
Chief HSBC economist for Europe the Middle East and Africa, Juliet Samson, predicts Poland will escape the worst of the economic impact of the downturn and can still expect GDP growth of around 3%, mainly as a result of low taxes, consumer demand that is holding up, and a continued strong flow of foreign investment. The biggest difficulty Poland faces is a sharp drop off in exports.
Even so, as Poland's exports account for no more than 33% of its total GDP, it will not be as severely as others in the region that are heavily reliant on exports, notably the Czech Republic, where exports make up 66% of total output, and Hungary, where exports make up 69% of GDP.
The Polish Information and Foreign Investment Agency (PALiZ) reports 80 to 90 new FDI projects are lined up for the country in 2009, representing some €10 billion.
This represents a 20% drop from the estimated €11 to €12 billion the country attracted in 2008 - even so, the agency reports that these projects alone will create 5,000 new jobs.
Despite the global economic gloom, 25% of Polish employers say they plan to create more jobs in 2009, 50% say they do not plan any job cuts and the other 25% say they will be forced to make redundancies, according to a recent survey of 2,600 companies by Hay Group.
Robin Bowman
