Poland has the best opportunity to not only get through the global economic crisis in good shape, but to actually enhance its competitiveness, claims a leading global management consultancy.

The claim is made by Aleksander Kwiatkowski, president of the management consultancy A.T. Kearney Poland in Warsaw.

According to the company's report 'After the Crash of 2008. Now what?', 90% of the world's 10 largest economies will undergo a lasting slowdown in their economic growth rate. The exception will be India.

The report suggests those countries and regions that will be most severely affected will be: Latin America, Mexico, Northern Africa, Russian, Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Philippines.

But the A.T. Kearney writers say Poland stands apart for a number of key reasons:
Poles have a low level of debt.

The stability of the property market, even though it is undergoing a downturn.
The report says that the property boom happened when a lot of speculative money was pumped into the sector in expectation of high returns. This money has now been largely withdrawn and prices are much more realistic. There are few major debts and potential demand for housing is far higher than supply.

Mortgage penetration is still relatively low and banks have generally lent conservatively.
But, not all is sunny.

The report describes Polish industry as 'small fish swimming around a shark'. And there is a possibility that this shark of foreign companies could run down their Polish operations or pull out altogether with obvious negative consequences for Poland.

The report's authors believe that this danger must push the government and businesses into driving increased competitiveness and the streamlining of operations in the country.

So, as the authors say, Poland can either gain during the crisis, and emerge stronger; or, if it fails to act to avert the effects should foreign investors start to run down operations in Poland, it will lose out.

Robin Bowman