Polish corporate wage growth reached 5 percent annually for the second month and job gains quickened, buttressing the case for an interest rate increase next month after January's faster-than-expected surge in inflation.
Wages rose 5 percent on the year in January, the Central Statistical Office reported in Warsaw today, compared with 5.4 percent in December. The figure was below the median forecast of 5.2 percent in a Bloomberg survey of 23 economists. January wages fell 11.9 percent from the month before.
"The slowdown in job growth and investment spending seems to be ending and companies are returning to their pre-crisis mode," Jaroslaw Janecki, chief economist at Societe Generale in Warsaw, said before the release.
Poland's economic growth more than doubled last year, helped by recovering demand in Germany, the country's main trading partner, as well as consumer spending. The central bank said it will be alert to wage and price pressures as companies boost employment to meet rising orders. The inflation rate jumped to 3.8 percent in January, the highest in 21 months, exceeding the central bank's 3.5 percent tolerance limit.
Last month, the central bank increased borrowing costs for the first time since June 2008, lifting the key interest rate to 3.75 percent from a record-low 3.5 percent.
'Increase Could Happen'
"The probability of a March rate hike rose to at least 33 percent after the consumer price data," Piotr Kalisz, chief economist at Citigroup's Bank Handlowy SA unit in Warsaw, said in a research note. "If jobs or output data surprise on the upside, the increase could happen at the March meeting."
The zloty traded at 3.9089 per euro, strengthened from 3.91001 before the data were released and up 0.4 percent on the day.
Employment increased 3.8 percent in January from the same period last year, exceeding the 2.5 percent median forecast by 20 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Employment rose 2.3 percent on the month, in part due to the statistical office's annual addition of new companies to its database.
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